Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.2%

+655

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Drohan (0.64 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #6Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.3%

+786

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.3%

95% CI · 13.9–14.7%

+599

Fair odds

1st AB

3.8%

Through AB2

7.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
Contact+16%
SP Contact+2%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0308 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+640

High

+755

Low

+445

Med

+555

Avg

+579

+640

Low +445High +755

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.8

Proj PA

139

HR / PA

.035

ISO

.163

wOBA

.303

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

38.5

Hard%

46.2

FB%

25.0

Pull%

34.6

Soft%

19.2

GB%

50.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

41.2

FB%

17.6

Pull%

47.1

Soft%

11.8

GB%

52.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

50.0

Hard%

48.6

FB%

28.6

Pull%

28.6

Soft%

22.9

GB%

48.6

Home

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

56.0

FB%

36.0

Pull%

32.0

Soft%

16.0

GB%

40.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

50.0

Hard%

37.0

FB%

14.8

Pull%

37.0

Soft%

22.2

GB%

59.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.64 HR/9
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.64 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.500↑ vs season .2504 PA · 15d

OPS

1.000

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ MIL	4	2	0	1	0	2	.500
04-06	vs KC	2	1	0	0	0	1	1.000
04-05	vs CHC	4	2	0	2	0	0	.500
04-05	vs CHC	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
04-03	vs CHC	2	1	1	1	1	1	2.000
💣 358ft · 101.9 EV · Slider
04-01	@ LAD	3	1	1	1	0	2	1.333
💣 407ft · 107.4 EV · Curveball
03-31	@ LAD	2	0	0	0	1	1	—
03-30	@ LAD	4	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seamer14PA	—	.171	0.0	22.2	67	26.7
🐾SISinker10PA	—	.334	0.0	42.9	86	13.3
🐾SLSlider11PA	.300	.279	16.7	83.3	67	42.1
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seamer

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.208	0.0	16.7	50	26.3	133	10

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.334	0.0	50.0	83	15.4	133	9

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.375	.365	20.0	100.0	60	41.2	133	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Arias.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Confirmed2 of 2 HRs · 100%

🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 2 of 2 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.4

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

383

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/2

Avg LA on HRs

31.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
28
xwOBA
.171
Whiff%
26.7
HH%
22.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67
SISinker
Use%
22
xwOBA
.334
Whiff%
13.3
HH%
42.9
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
86
SLSlider
Use%
20
xwOBA
.279
Whiff%
42.1
HH%
83.3
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
67

Shane Drohan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.8	12.0	50.0	44	.252	22.7
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.6	13.9	47.2	58	.344	25.0
SLSlider	19.6	3.0	25.8	70	.218	24.6
FCCutter	14.3	10.3	28.0	66	.352	8.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.4	38.5	54	.344	19.2	21
vs RHB	8.3	50.0	33	.183	23.5	28

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	42.9	79	.302	14.3	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.0	46	.370	33.3	25

SLSlider20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.5	27.3	64	.213	31.4	33
vs RHB	0.0	27.3	82	.230	12.5	16

FCCutter14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	16.7	83	.349	0.0	7
vs RHB	8.7	34.8	61	.353	9.1	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .449). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SLSlider1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 13 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP26PA	.292	.542	.850	13.6%	2
vs LHP10PA	—	.200	.400	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home12PA	.363	.727	1.144	11.8%	1
🐾Away24PA	.130	.304	.512	6.2%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day13PA	.250	.500	.808	6.7%	1
Night23PA	.182	.409	.670	11.1%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty14PA	.538	.769	1.055	2
Runners On17PA	—	.250	.544	0
RISP8PA	—	.429	.929	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs10PA	.334	.556	.856	1
1 Out10PA	.334	.556	.856	1
2 Outs16PA	.063	.313	.563	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.