Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

11.2%

+793

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Walbert Ureña (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 106

2+ RBI

10.2%

+885

RBI 1+

33.6%

+198

Hits 1+

67.8%

-210

Hits 2+

25.8%

+287

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.1%

95% CI · 11.7–12.5%

+726

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+6%
Temp+5%
vs SP-10%
Contact+7%
Statcast+15%
SP Statcast-5%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Walbert Ureña (RHP)

·108F game
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0246 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+6% (×1.06)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+15% (×1.15)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed-5% (×0.95)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 2 HR

Now

+475

High

+1445

Low

+525

Med

+822

Avg

+829

🐾🐾+475

Low +525🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1445

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+7252026-06-07vs WSHfair odds

HomeBat 3rdoff RHPChangeup

🐾+9602026-05-25vs SFbook line

Awayoff RHPSinker

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.6

Proj PA

252

HR / PA

.026

ISO

.150

wOBA

.342

wRC+

116

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.4

Hard%

38.7

FB%

38.7

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

12.9

GB%

39.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

43.8

FB%

37.5

Pull%

46.9

Soft%

12.5

GB%

37.5

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

37.0

FB%

39.1

Pull%

35.9

Soft%

13.0

GB%

40.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

47.5

FB%

29.5

Pull%

42.6

Soft%

18.0

GB%

49.2

Away

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

30.2

FB%

47.6

Pull%

34.9

Soft%

7.9

GB%

30.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Chase Field mild HR boost (+6)
Walbert Ureña stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (SI, FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (40% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .975 OPS over last 15 days
108°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (7.3%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.289↑ vs season .27549 PA · 15d

OPS

.975

ISO

.237

RBI

K-BB

6-9

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ CIN	4	2	0	0	0	0	.750
06-12	@ CIN	4	1	0	0	1	1	.500
06-11	@ MIA	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-10	@ MIA	3	2	0	0	1	0	.667
06-09	@ MIA	3	1	1	1	2	0	1.333
💣 417ft · 106.1 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	vs WSH	4	2	1	2	0	0	1.250
💣 368ft · 106.4 EV · Changeup
06-06	vs WSH	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-04	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeupvR14PA	.307	.422	27.3	36.4	64	9.5
🐾SISinkervR31PA	.231	.422	8.0	40.0	48	1.8
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR44PA	.282	.428	12.5	45.8	33	16.0
🐾STSweepervR13PA	.417	.389	27.3	54.5	82	8.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.215	0.0	50.0	75	25.0	81	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.307	.422	27.3	36.4	64	9.5	132	14

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.250	.267	0.0	50.0	25	0.0	81	4
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.231	.422	8.0	40.0	48	1.8	132	31

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.200	.363	16.7	66.7	33	17.9	81	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.282	.428	12.5	45.8	33	16.0	132	44

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.417	.389	27.3	54.5	82	8.7	132	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

106

vs SHB

Chase Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Moreno.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 2 of 5 career HRs (40%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#6#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.169

Barrel %

10.5

Hard Hit %

45.2

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.371

xBA

.275

Brl / PA %

7.30

Max EV (mph)

110.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Avg EV on HRs

107.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

432

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/4

Avg LA on HRs

27.3°

Brl / PA %

7.30

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Walbert Ureña · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.422
Whiff%
9.5
HH%
36.4
BRL%
27.3
Pull%
64
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.422
Whiff%
1.8
HH%
40.0
BRL%
8.0
Pull%
48
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.428
Whiff%
16.0
HH%
45.8
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
33
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Walbert Ureña (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.9	2.1	18.8	75	.227	24.0
SISinker	31.0	8.8	42.6	65	.379	23.7
FF4-Seam Fastball	22.0	0.0	35.5	55	.237	19.2
STSweeper	15.1	16.7	33.3	56	.297	17.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	2.5	20.0	73	.253	17.6	58
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	12.5	88	.162	39.3	23

SISinker31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.5	59.1	50	.338	14.3	28
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	34.3	74	.404	29.6	52

FF4-Seam Fastball22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	57	.252	23.4	35
vs RHB	0.0	41.2	53	.218	12.9	24

STSweeper15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	50.0	50.0	25	.389	6.2	5
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	64	.276	24.2	23

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .409). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ARI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Chase Field (330/407/335 ft) · elev 1086ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

STSweeper1

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP137PA	.164	.440	.820	12.4%	3
vs LHP42PA	.184	.421	.683	9.4%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home84PA	.135	.338	.636	8.1%	2
Away95PA	.200	.525	.925	14.9%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day58PA	.224	.510	.889	13.5%	3
🐾Night121PA	.143	.400	.739	10.9%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty63PA	.053	.193	.415	0
Runners On81PA	.224	.567	.987	3
RISP42PA	.258	.516	.897	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs53PA	.234	.532	.909	3
1 Out60PA	.125	.396	.763	0
2 Outs66PA	.153	.390	.708	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Mon.