Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.4%

+646

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Mike Burrows (RHP) (2.09 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

11.4%

+779

RBI 1+

34.7%

+188

Hits 1+

68.5%

-218

Hits 2+

26.7%

+274

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.5%

95% CI · 6.2–6.8%

+1437

Fair odds

1st AB

1.9%

Through AB2

3.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind+9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+27%
Contact-15%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast-9%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Mike Burrows (RHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·15 mph wind out to OF
·92F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0167 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind+9% (×1.09)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-15% (×0.85)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-9% (×0.91)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+645

High

+1185

Low

+610

Med

+905

Avg

+917

+645

Low +610High +1185

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.5

Proj PA

373

HR / PA

.018

ISO

.131

wOBA

.328

wRC+

104

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.1

Hard%

29.6

FB%

36.3

Pull%

34.5

Soft%

11.8

GB%

43.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

43.6

FB%

41.0

Pull%

43.6

Soft%

17.9

GB%

43.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

1.8

Hard%

26.2

FB%

35.2

Pull%

32.3

Soft%

10.4

GB%

43.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

30.5

FB%

34.6

Pull%

35.2

Soft%

9.5

GB%

41.3

Away

HR/FB

2.7

Hard%

28.6

FB%

38.1

Pull%

33.7

Soft%

14.3

GB%

45.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Mike Burrows is leaky — 2.09 HR/9 allowed
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (43% of career HRs)
93°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Pitcher HR-prone (2.09 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.276→ vs season .28033 PA · 15d

OPS

.709

ISO

.069

RBI

K-BB

7-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs HOU	5	2	1	0	1	.400
06-10	vs TEX	4	0	0	1	1	—
06-09	vs TEX	4	1	1	0	2	.750
06-07	@ MIN	4	1	1	1	1	.250
06-06	@ MIN	4	1	0	0	1	.250
06-05	@ MIN	1	0	1	0	0	—
06-04	@ MIN	0	0	0	1	0	—
05-30	@ TEX	4	1	1	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR67PA	.082	.310	5.8	40.4	39	13.2
🐾CHChangeupvR6PA	.167	.231	0.0	16.7	67	20.0
🐾SLSlidervR25PA	—	.241	0.0	26.3	63	16.7
🐾CUCurveballvR5PA	.750	.555	0.0	50.0	75	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.285	.560	7.1	64.3	50	11.8	173	17
vs RHPTONIGHT	.082	.310	5.8	40.4	39	13.2	74	67

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.223	.165	0.0	11.1	67	0.0	173	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.167	.231	0.0	16.7	67	20.0	74	6

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.241	0.0	26.3	63	16.7	74	25

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.453	16.7	50.0	67	9.1	173	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.750	.555	0.0	50.0	75	0.0	74	5

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Garcia.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 6 of 14 career HRs (43%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#4#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.117

Barrel %

4.9

Hard Hit %

41.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.327

xBA

.280

Brl / PA %

3.80

Max EV (mph)

110.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.4

Avg EV on HRs

102.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

25.0°

Brl / PA %

3.80

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Mike Burrows · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.310
Whiff%
13.2
HH%
40.4
BRL%
5.8
Pull%
39
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.231
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
16.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.241
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
26.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 25 PA this season.

Mike Burrows (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.8	16.7	50.8	52	.434	14.3
CHChangeup	27.5	3.2	27.1	76	.281	18.6
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	15.3	6.1	31.1	59	.301	21.8
CUCurveball	14.6	24.0	45.5	68	.319	17.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	18.0	56.0	50	.441	13.0	66
vs RHB	12.5	50.0	56	.416	14.7	23

CHChangeup28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	3.6	23.6	75	.300	10.8	71
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	57.1	86	.216	34.3	22

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	38.1	67	.411	24.2	32
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	54	.191	13.3	32

CUCurveball15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	26.7	46.7	73	.391	15.4	20
vs RHB	20.0	30.0	60	.237	18.4	18

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .405). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

STSweeper1

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP216PA	.096	.338	.634	3.6%	1
vs LHP55PA	.188	.542	.978	9.3%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home142PA	.125	.438	.811	4.7%	2
Away129PA	.102	.314	.585	4.9%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day109PA	.165	.417	.711	4.6%	3
🐾Night162PA	.077	.350	.696	4.9%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty70PA	.180	.475	.861	1
Runners On103PA	.076	.293	.575	1
RISP60PA	.078	.392	.775	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs118PA	.091	.373	.695	1
1 Out81PA	.116	.333	.654	1
2 Outs72PA	.149	.433	.766	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-026PA	.230	.538	.846	1
1-019PA	.053	.421	.789	0
0-132PA	.094	.438	.781	0
2-05PA	—	.200	.400	0
0-221PA	—	.143	.286	0
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-235PA	.177	.559	.930	0
2-231PA	.032	.161	.290	0
3-246PA	.059	.235	.605	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.