Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.9%

+618

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (1.79 HR/9) · park 97

Batting #3Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.7%

+757

RBI 1+

35.0%

+186

Hits 1+

67.9%

-212

Hits 2+

26.0%

+284

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.3%

95% CI · 5.0–5.5%

+1790

Fair odds

1st AB

1.4%

Through AB2

2.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind-2%
vs SP+4%
Contact-15%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast-9%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0166 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+4% (×1.04) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-15% (×0.85)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-9% (×0.91)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+750

High

+1185

Low

+550

Med

+838

Avg

+846

+750

Low +550High +1185

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.7

Proj PA

220

HR / PA

.021

ISO

.143

wOBA

.331

wRC+

108

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.7

Hard%

30.7

FB%

36.3

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

12.0

GB%

44.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

45.5

FB%

38.6

Pull%

43.2

Soft%

15.9

GB%

47.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

1.6

Hard%

27.1

FB%

35.8

Pull%

33.1

Soft%

11.1

GB%

44.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

4.9

Hard%

32.8

FB%

34.7

Pull%

35.3

Soft%

9.2

GB%

43.2

Away

HR/FB

2.5

Hard%

28.3

FB%

38.1

Pull%

34.9

Soft%

15.1

GB%

46.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Matthew Liberatore is leaky — 1.79 HR/9 allowed
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CU)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (43% of career HRs)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.79 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.2% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.257↓ vs season .27639 PA · 15d

OPS

.676

ISO

.086

RBI

K-BB

9-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ WSH	1	0	0	1	0	—
06-15	@ WSH	4	1	2	0	1	.250
06-14	vs HOU	4	3	3	0	0	1.000
06-13	vs HOU	4	0	0	0	2	—
06-12	vs HOU	5	2	1	0	1	.400
06-10	vs TEX	4	0	0	1	1	—
06-09	vs TEX	4	1	1	0	2	.750
06-07	@ MIN	4	1	1	1	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball89PA	.113	.343	5.6	41.4	40	12.3
🐾SLSlider30PA	—	.272	4.2	34.8	71	14.3
🐾CUCurveball18PA	.294	.426	8.3	50.0	75	18.2
🐾CHChangeup13PA	.154	.196	0.0	7.7	67	10.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.285	.560	7.1	64.3	50	11.4	160	17
vs RHP	.072	.295	5.2	37.9	38	12.7	77	75

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.467	25.0	100.0	100	0.0	160	6
vs RHP	—	.239	0.0	25.0	65	15.4	77	26

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.372	14.3	57.1	71	15.4	160	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.800	.477	0.0	40.0	80	0.0	77	6

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.223	.165	0.0	11.1	67	0.0	160	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.167	.231	0.0	16.7	67	20.0	77	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Garcia.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Projected3 of 14 HRs · 21%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 6 of 14 career HRs (43%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#4#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.112

Barrel %

5.1

Hard Hit %

41.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.322

xBA

.276

Brl / PA %

3.90

Max EV (mph)

110.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.4

Avg EV on HRs

102.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

25.0°

Brl / PA %

3.90

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.343
Whiff%
12.3
HH%
41.4
BRL%
5.6
Pull%
40
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.272
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
34.8
BRL%
4.2
Pull%
71
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 30 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
.426
Whiff%
18.2
HH%
50.0
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
75
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Matthew Liberatore arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.4	12.5	47.4	48	.449	10.4
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	14.9	43.5	62	.293	27.7
CUCurveball	16.4	13.3	35.7	60	.208	19.8
CHChangeup	15.4	4.4	32.6	67	.383	9.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	11.8	47.1	49	.421	10.2	89

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	25.6	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	15.4	38.5	62	.209	20.8	31

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.4	31.1	67	.383	13.6	53

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .405). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

STSweeper1

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP226PA	.096	.346	.647	3.4%	1
vs LHP59PA	.177	.510	.934	10.6%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home150PA	.125	.441	.814	5.1%	2
Away135PA	.098	.309	.583	4.7%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day113PA	.168	.439	.749	4.4%	3
🐾Night172PA	.073	.336	.673	5.3%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty73PA	.172	.469	.853	1
Runners On111PA	.081	.313	.610	1
RISP66PA	.090	.429	.838	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs122PA	.088	.360	.671	1
1 Out88PA	.118	.355	.685	1
2 Outs75PA	.145	.435	.782	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.