Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

11.5%

+766

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Zack Wheeler (RHP) (1.12 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

10.3%

+866

RBI 1+

33.8%

+196

Hits 1+

71.4%

-249

Hits 2+

30.2%

+232

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.0%

95% CI · 5.7–6.3%

+1568

Fair odds

1st AB

1.5%

Through AB2

2.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
vs SP-13%
Contact-15%
SP Statcast-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0203 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-13% (×0.87) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-15% (×0.85)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+1% (×1.01)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 17 games · 1 HR

Now

+850

High

+1155

Low

+540

Med

+765

Avg

+787

🐾+850

Low +540🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1155

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+7602026-06-02vs WSHbook line

AwayBat 2ndoff RHPSinker

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.9

Proj PA

353

HR / PA

.022

ISO

.140

wOBA

.333

wRC+

110

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.9

Hard%

38.4

FB%

30.8

Pull%

30.8

Soft%

9.7

GB%

54.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

34.4

FB%

33.9

Pull%

26.2

Soft%

13.1

GB%

54.2

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

39.8

FB%

29.7

Pull%

32.4

Soft%

8.5

GB%

54.9

Home

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

42.0

FB%

24.8

Pull%

32.1

Soft%

10.7

GB%

62.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

34.0

FB%

38.1

Pull%

29.2

Soft%

8.5

GB%

44.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (60% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .995 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (5.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.392↑ vs season .29954 PA · 15d

OPS

.995

ISO

.177

RBI

K-BB

6-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ PIT	3	2	0	1	0	.667
06-12	@ PIT	5	1	1	0	0	.200
06-11	vs ARI	4	2	0	0	0	.500
06-10	vs ARI	5	2	2	0	1	.400
06-09	vs ARI	5	3	1	0	0	1.000
06-07	vs TB	4	2	1	0	0	1.250
06-06	vs TB	4	2	0	0	1	.500
06-05	vs TB	4	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR57PA	.211	.424	8.5	61.7	28	5.2
🐾SISinkervR45PA	.237	.517	14.7	67.6	71	7.1
🐾STSweepervR19PA	.053	.256	0.0	13.3	33	30.8
🐾FSSplit-FingervR14PA	—	.154	0.0	25.0	63	36.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.134	.421	20.0	53.3	27	9.1	218	17
vs RHPTONIGHT	.211	.424	8.5	61.7	28	5.2	113	57

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.300	.347	10.0	60.0	30	0.0	218	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.237	.517	14.7	67.6	71	7.1	113	45

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.215	0.0	16.7	67	11.1	218	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.053	.256	0.0	13.3	33	30.8	113	19

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.154	0.0	25.0	63	36.8	113	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Lopez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 6 of 10 career HRs (60%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.141

Barrel %

7.2

Hard Hit %

46.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.341

xBA

.299

Brl / PA %

5.70

Max EV (mph)

112.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.9

Avg EV on HRs

103.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

400

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/5

Avg LA on HRs

26.0°

Brl / PA %

5.70

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Zack Wheeler · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.424
Whiff%
5.2
HH%
61.7
BRL%
8.5
Pull%
28
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.517
Whiff%
7.1
HH%
67.6
BRL%
14.7
Pull%
71
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweepervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.256
Whiff%
30.8
HH%
13.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
33
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.

Career vs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (7 PA)

OPS

1.238

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Zack Wheeler (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	38.9	9.1	43.2	46	.244	22.7
SISinker	16.7	10.3	35.9	49	.321	14.3
STSweeper	13.5	5.9	23.5	71	.341	17.1
FSSplit-Finger	12.7	4.2	29.2	75	.257	19.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	41.2	47	.258	19.1	53
vs RHB	10.0	50.0	40	.208	31.0	20

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.117	15.4	6
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	40.0	51	.354	13.6	39

STSweeper14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	71	.633	0.0	8
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	70	.204	20.7	17

FSSplit-Finger13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.3	31.6	74	.326	9.4	22
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	20.0	80	.119	42.9	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .474). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP227PA	.128	.431	.770	7.1%	4
vs LHP70PA	.179	.657	1.143	7.7%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home158PA	.171	.520	.893	8.1%	3
🐾Away139PA	.103	.444	.818	6.3%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day134PA	.152	.520	.916	7.6%	2
Night163PA	.131	.458	.814	7.0%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty107PA	.214	.534	.880	3
Runners On127PA	.077	.448	.842	1
RISP61PA	.054	.411	.755	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs103PA	.114	.479	.867	1
1 Out98PA	.239	.557	.924	3
2 Outs96PA	.075	.426	.791	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Mon.