Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
6.5%
+1435
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Walbert Ureña (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 106
2+ RBI
7.6%
+1219
RBI 1+
31.3%
+220
Hits 1+
66.2%
-196
Hits 2+
24.1%
+315
Switch Hitter — Batting Side
🐾As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT
105wRC+
As RHB(vs LHP)
76wRC+
🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his strong side.
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
4.8%
95% CI · 4.5–5.0%
+1985
Fair odds
1st AB
1.1%
Through AB2
2.2%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
Park+6%
Temp+5%
vs SP-10%
Contact-17%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast-14%
SP Statcast-5%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Walbert Ureña (RHP)
·108F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0175 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj
Park+6% (×1.06)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-14% (×0.86)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)
SP Statcast allowed-5% (×0.95)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 18 games · 1 HR
Now
+725
High
+1245
Low
+605
Med
+915
Avg
+919
🐾+725
Low +605🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1245
🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100
Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.
⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
🐾+9752026-05-29vs SEAbook line
AwayBat 3rdoff RHP4-Seamer
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
5.2
Proj PA
384
HR / PA
.013
ISO
.106
wOBA
.322
wRC+
102
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
5.2
Hard%
30.1
FB%
29.4
Pull%
47.1
Soft%
10.7
GB%
42.6
vs LHP
HR/FB
5.9
Hard%
24.6
FB%
29.8
Pull%
36.9
Soft%
12.3
GB%
47.4
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
4.9
Hard%
32.6
FB%
29.3
Pull%
51.8
Soft%
9.9
GB%
40.7
🐾Home
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
29.4
FB%
27.8
Pull%
48.0
Soft%
8.8
GB%
45.4
Away
HR/FB
9.7
Hard%
30.8
FB%
31.0
Pull%
46.2
Soft%
12.5
GB%
40.0
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
1.0 🐾
DART THROW
🏟Chase Field mild HR boost (+6)
🛡Walbert Ureña stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
🔥Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
📍Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (53% of career HRs)
🌡108°F — ball flies in warm air
·Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.279↑ vs season .26550 PA · 15d
OPS
.646
ISO
—
HR
0
RBI
1
K-BB
4-5
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-13
@ CIN
2
0
0
0
1
0
—
06-12
@ CIN
5
1
0
0
0
1
.200
06-11
@ MIA
3
0
0
0
1
1
—
06-10
@ MIA
4
1
0
0
0
1
.250
06-09
@ MIA
2
2
0
0
3
0
1.000
06-07
vs WSH
4
2
0
0
0
0
.500
06-06
vs WSH
3
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-05
vs WSH
4
2
0
0
0
0
.500
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾CHChangeupvR28PA
.077
.290
0.0
29.2
71
8.0
🐾SISinkervR37PA
—
.332
4.2
54.2
63
10.7
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR73PA
.193
.407
4.0
36.0
66
11.8
🐾STSweepervR8PA
.167
.483
0.0
40.0
60
13.3
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
CHChangeup
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.167
.370
7.1
57.1
71
14.8
76
16
vs RHPTONIGHT
.077
.290
0.0
29.2
71
8.0
105
28
SISinker
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
—
.319
0.0
23.1
54
4.0
76
19
vs RHPTONIGHT
—
.332
4.2
54.2
63
10.7
105
37
FF4-Seam Fastball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
.316
.359
5.3
31.6
42
4.3
76
25
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT
.193
.407
4.0
36.0
66
11.8
105
73
STSweeper
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT
.167
.483
0.0
40.0
60
13.3
105
8
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
82
vs RHB
106
🐾vs SHB
94
Chase Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Perdomo.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 10 of 19 career HRs (53%).
6
1
🐾
10
2
🐾
3
3
·
4
·
5
·
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#2#1
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
ISO
.104
Barrel %
2.9
Hard Hit %
31.2
xwOBA
.333
xBA
.265
Brl / PA %
2.10
Max EV (mph)
106.3
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
102.0
Avg EV on HRs
101.4
Avg HR Distance (ft)
382
HRs in sample
2
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/2
Crushed (105+ mph)
0/2
Avg LA on HRs
30.0°
Brl / PA %
2.10
Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Walbert Ureña · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.290
Whiff%
8.0
HH%
29.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
71
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.332
Whiff%
10.7
HH%
54.2
BRL%
4.2
Pull%
63
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.407
Whiff%
11.8
HH%
36.0
BRL%
4.0
Pull%
66
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
Walbert Ureña (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY
31.9
2.1
18.8
75
.227
24.0
SISinker
31.0
8.8
42.6
65
.379
23.7
FF4-Seam Fastball
22.0
0.0
35.5
55
.237
19.2
STSweeper
15.1
16.7
33.3
56
.297
17.0
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY32% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
2.5
20.0
73
.253
17.6
58
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
0.0
12.5
88
.162
39.3
23
SISinker31% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
4.5
59.1
50
.338
14.3
28
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT
11.4
34.3
74
.404
29.6
52
FF4-Seam Fastball22% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
0.0
28.6
57
.252
23.4
35
vs RHB
0.0
41.2
53
.218
12.9
24
STSweeper15% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
50.0
50.0
25
.389
6.2
5
vs RHB
7.1
28.6
64
.276
24.2
23
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .394). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ARI)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Chase Field (330/407/335 ft) · elev 1086ft
2 HRs this season
vs RHP 1vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2
Bats S · Switch hitter
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
8
games since last HR
33
PAs since last HR
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾vs RHP195PA
.098
.348
.709
2.7%
2
vs LHP85PA
.119
.328
.633
2.9%
1
Location
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾Home130PA
.093
.324
.647
3.6%
0
Away150PA
.114
.358
.720
1.9%
3
Time
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Day116PA
.064
.232
.495
3.2%
1
🐾Night164PA
.132
.419
.820
2.5%
2
Base State
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
Bases Empty99PA
.082
.294
.617
0
Runners On117PA
.128
.383
.719
2
RISP78PA
.131
.328
.627
1
Outs
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0 Outs92PA
.112
.306
.643
2
1 Out94PA
.095
.311
.644
1
2 Outs94PA
.106
.400
.762
0
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Mon.
