Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.1%

+728

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gage Jump (1.20 HR/9) · park 114

Batting #4Projected lineup

2+ RBI

10.6%

+840

RBI 1+

34.0%

+194

Hits 1+

64.3%

-181

Hits 2+

22.2%

+351

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.2%

95% CI · 12.8–13.6%

+660

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
vs SP-10%
Contact+18%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+5%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0285 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+5% (×1.05)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+875

High

+8030

Low

+385

Med

+758

Avg

+1530

+875

Low +385High +8030

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.5

Proj PA

210

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.148

wOBA

.288

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.7

Hard%

33.5

FB%

31.4

Pull%

37.4

Soft%

15.6

GB%

48.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

18.5

Hard%

44.4

FB%

43.5

Pull%

39.7

Soft%

17.5

GB%

37.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

27.6

FB%

24.8

Pull%

36.2

Soft%

14.7

GB%

54.0

Home

HR/FB

4.0

Hard%

25.3

FB%

28.1

Pull%

37.4

Soft%

18.7

GB%

52.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

42.0

FB%

34.9

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

12.5

GB%

43.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (114)
High barrels/PA (5.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.182↓ vs season .25444 PA · 15d

OPS

.455

ISO

.091

RBI

K-BB

15-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-17	@ ARI	4	1	0	1	.250
06-15	@ ARI	4	1	0	2	.250
06-14	vs TB	1	0	0	1	—
06-13	vs TB	4	0	0	3	—
06-12	vs TB	4	1	0	2	.500
06-10	vs HOU	4	1	0	0	.250
06-09	vs HOU	5	1	3	0	.200
06-08	vs HOU	1	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball70PA	.161	.307	6.7	47.6	44	30.0
🐾SLSlider26PA	.115	.284	10.0	31.3	75	33.8
🐾CUCurveball19PA	—	.232	11.1	20.0	89	41.5
🐾STSweeper26PA	.166	.320	6.2	25.0	63	42.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.233	.354	10.0	40.0	45	17.5	133	33
vs RHP	.084	.274	4.0	48.0	44	24.1	83	41

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.100	.272	50.0	75.0	75	36.0	133	10
vs RHP	.095	.290	0.0	18.8	75	26.1	83	21

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.217	0.0	14.3	86	30.0	83	10

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.200	.321	7.7	30.8	54	36.6	83	22

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Peraza.

Season Statcast

ISO

.161

Barrel %

8.5

Hard Hit %

37.3

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.308

xBA

.254

Brl / PA %

5.70

Max EV (mph)

110.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.4

Avg EV on HRs

101.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

381

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/5

Avg LA on HRs

30.6°

Brl / PA %

5.70

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gage Jump · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
50
xwOBA
.307
Whiff%
30.0
HH%
47.6
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
44
SLSlider
Use%
25
xwOBA
.284
Whiff%
33.8
HH%
31.3
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
75
CUCurveball
Use%
9
xwOBA
.232
Whiff%
41.5
HH%
20.0
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
89
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.

Gage Jump arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	49.7	3.2	29.0	55	.290	18.2
SLSlider	24.7	5.0	35.0	65	.353	12.5
CUCurveball	9.0	0.0	33.3	50	.216	21.1
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.0	0.0	28.6	86	.212	35.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball50% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	0	.316	25.0	7
vs RHB	3.7	33.3	63	.285	17.5	36

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	57	.503	—	8
vs RHB	0.0	23.1	69	.282	14.3	17

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	33.3	67	.230	21.4	8

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY7% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	80	.133	42.9	8
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 35.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .379). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 4

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CH🐾Changeup2

STSweeper1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP147PA	.104	.348	.654	3.8%	2
vs LHP81PA	.259	.545	.858	14.8%	5

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home111PA	.085	.340	.622	5.6%	1
🐾Away117PA	.236	.500	.833	10.3%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day74PA	.222	.458	.705	9.1%	4
🐾Night154PA	.129	.400	.738	7.1%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty89PA	.200	.488	.848	4
Runners On91PA	.128	.337	.581	2
RISP53PA	.039	.196	.369	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs68PA	.157	.438	.751	2
1 Out80PA	.104	.338	.601	1
2 Outs80PA	.225	.493	.843	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.