Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

20.2%

+396

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Griffin Jax (RHP) (1.62 HR/9) · park 127

2+ RBI

15.1%

+563

RBI 1+

38.1%

+163

Hits 1+

65.5%

-190

Hits 2+

23.4%

+328

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.4%

95% CI · 12.0–12.8%

+707

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+27%
vs SP-16%
Contact-21%
SP Contact+13%
Statcast+7%
SP Statcast+2%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Griffin Jax (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 127)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0285 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+27% (×1.27)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-21% (×0.79)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+7% (×1.07)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games

Now

+395

High

+4405

Low

+395

Med

+825

Avg

+1027

+395

Low +395High +4405

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.6

Proj PA

291

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.148

wOBA

.298

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.2

Hard%

32.4

FB%

32.6

Pull%

38.6

Soft%

15.9

GB%

45.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

21.7

Hard%

40.4

FB%

45.1

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

17.3

GB%

37.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

28.0

FB%

25.6

Pull%

35.5

Soft%

15.1

GB%

50.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

25.9

FB%

29.1

Pull%

37.0

Soft%

18.5

GB%

53.2

Away

HR/FB

26.1

Hard%

40.6

FB%

37.1

Pull%

40.6

Soft%

12.5

GB%

35.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Angel Stadium is a hitter's haven (+27 for RHB)
Park boost (127)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.62 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.264→ vs season .26153 PA · 15d

OPS

.679

ISO

.151

RBI

K-BB

12-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-12	vs TB	4	1	0	2	.500
06-10	vs HOU	4	1	0	0	.250
06-09	vs HOU	5	1	3	0	.200
06-08	vs HOU	1	0	0	0	—
06-07	@ LAD	5	0	0	4	—
06-06	@ LAD	3	1	1	1	1.000
06-05	@ LAD	4	0	0	0	—
06-03	vs COL	5	2	2	1	.600

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾STSweepervR18PA	.250	.353	8.3	33.3	50	33.3
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR38PA	.091	.283	4.3	47.8	48	21.3
🐾CHChangeupvR6PA	.200	.251	0.0	50.0	100	50.0
🐾SISinkervR34PA	.032	.316	3.4	24.1	55	11.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.250	.353	8.3	33.3	50	33.3	96	18

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.222	.324	11.1	38.9	50	18.9	135	30
vs RHPTONIGHT	.091	.283	4.3	47.8	48	21.3	96	38

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.316	.343	11.8	35.3	47	30.8	135	19
vs RHPTONIGHT	.200	.251	0.0	50.0	100	50.0	96	6

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.429	.411	0.0	57.1	71	0.0	135	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.032	.316	3.4	24.1	55	11.6	96	34

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Peraza.

Season Statcast

ISO

.169

Barrel %

9.0

Hard Hit %

36.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.319

xBA

.261

Brl / PA %

6.20

Max EV (mph)

110.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.4

Avg EV on HRs

101.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

381

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/5

Avg LA on HRs

30.6°

Brl / PA %

6.20

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Griffin Jax · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

STSweepervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.353
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
33.3
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
50
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.283
Whiff%
21.3
HH%
47.8
BRL%
4.3
Pull%
48
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.251
Whiff%
50.0
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100

Career vs Griffin Jax (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Griffin Jax (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper	24.9	9.1	38.1	68	.289	22.4
FF4-Seam Fastball	20.6	23.8	47.6	52	.454	14.3
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.4	3.3	33.3	53	.296	28.2
SISinker	19.6	4.2	41.7	71	.374	21.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	62.5	75	.520	7.7	12
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	64	.209	27.8	26

FF4-Seam Fastball21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	46	.402	16.7	18
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	37.5	62.5	63	.531	11.8	12

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	26.9	46	.299	27.6	36
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	75.0	100	.278	30.0	7

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	63	.310	37.5	13
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	43.8	75	.417	0.0	20

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .379). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 4

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CH🐾Changeup2

STSweeper1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP138PA	.111	.365	.684	4.0%	2
vs LHP77PA	.274	.562	.878	15.5%	5

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home106PA	.089	.356	.651	5.8%	1
Away109PA	.255	.520	.859	11.0%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day69PA	.239	.478	.728	9.6%	4
🐾Night146PA	.137	.417	.766	7.5%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty87PA	.205	.487	.843	4
Runners On83PA	.141	.372	.640	2
RISP48PA	.043	.217	.408	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs64PA	.167	.450	.767	2
1 Out76PA	.109	.342	.605	1
2 Outs75PA	.242	.530	.903	4

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-038PA	.315	.686	1.080	2
1-015PA	.134	.467	.800	0
0-128PA	.193	.731	1.302	1
2-09PA	.334	.778	1.222	1
0-220PA	—	.150	.300	0
3-01PA	—	—	—	0
1-230PA	.067	.167	.267	0
2-224PA	—	.043	.127	0
3-235PA	.120	.360	.817	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.