Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
11.5%
+770
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Kai-Wei Teng (RHP) (1.06 HR/9) · park 115
2+ RBI
10.3%
+869
RBI 1+
33.7%
+196
Hits 1+
55.4%
-124
Hits 2+
14.2%
+604
Switch Hitter — Batting Side
As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT
47wRC+
🐾As RHB(vs LHP)
104wRC+
🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his weaker side.
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
11.5%
95% CI · 11.1–11.8%
+773
Fair odds
1st AB
2.9%
Through AB2
5.7%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
Park+15%
vs SP-5%
Contact-4%
SP Contact+4%
SP Statcast-6%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kai-Wei Teng (RHP)
·HR-friendly park (factor 115)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0298 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj
Park+15% (×1.15)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+1% (×1.01)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)
SP Statcast allowed-6% (×0.94)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 14 games · 2 HR
Now
+770
High
+1135
Low
+445
Med
+670
Avg
+676
🐾🐾+770
Low +445🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1135
WARMspot score 98
Just below his HR money zone (+575 to +645). Close, not prime.
⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
🐾+5752026-06-02vs TBbook line
AwayBat 7thoff LHPSinker
🐾+6452026-05-28vs LAAbook line
Homeoff RHP4-Seamer
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
6.9
Proj PA
211
HR / PA
.032
ISO
.169
wOBA
.313
wRC+
96
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
11.1
Hard%
24.8
FB%
48.8
Pull%
44.2
Soft%
20.2
GB%
41.9
vs LHP
HR/FB
16.7
Hard%
34.9
FB%
55.8
Pull%
32.6
Soft%
20.9
GB%
39.5
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
7.7
Hard%
19.8
FB%
45.3
Pull%
50.0
Soft%
19.8
GB%
43.0
Home
HR/FB
13.8
Hard%
26.2
FB%
44.6
Pull%
47.7
Soft%
16.9
GB%
44.6
🐾Away
HR/FB
8.8
Hard%
23.4
FB%
53.1
Pull%
40.6
Soft%
23.4
GB%
39.1
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
🏟Daikin Park is a hitter's haven (+15 for SHB)
🔥Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
📍Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (57% of career HRs)
·Park boost (115)
·High barrels/PA (5.8%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.250↑ vs season .20526 PA · 15d
OPS
.891
ISO
.333
HR
2
RBI
6
K-BB
8-2
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-13
@ CLE
2
0
0
0
0
1
—
06-11
vs MIN
1
1
1
2
0
0
4.000
💣 401ft · 98.9 EV · Fastball
06-10
vs MIN
2
1
0
0
0
1
.500
06-09
vs MIN
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-07
vs SEA
3
2
0
2
1
0
1.333
06-06
vs SEA
2
0
0
0
1
2
—
06-02
@ TB
4
2
1
2
0
0
1.250
💣 404ft · 108.1 EV · Sinker
06-01
@ TB
5
0
0
0
0
3
—
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾STSweepervR9PA
—
.278
0.0
33.3
83
20.0
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR46PA
.075
.246
3.0
27.3
58
14.3
🐾SISinkervR23PA
.100
.271
11.1
22.2
61
8.6
🐾CHChangeupvR21PA
.400
.144
7.1
28.6
64
21.9
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
STSweeper
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT
—
.278
0.0
33.3
83
20.0
47
9
FF4-Seam Fastball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.177
.349
18.2
54.5
73
12.1
104
19
vs RHPTONIGHT
.075
.246
3.0
27.3
58
14.3
47
46
SISinker
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.777
.727
33.3
66.7
78
7.7
104
9
vs RHPTONIGHT
.100
.271
11.1
22.2
61
8.6
47
23
CHChangeup
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.215
.283
7.1
35.7
57
21.2
104
14
vs RHPTONIGHT
.400
.144
7.1
28.6
64
21.9
47
21
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
89
vs RHB
115
🐾vs SHB
102
Daikin Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Pérez.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 4 of 7 career HRs (57%).
3
1
🐾
2
·
4
3
🐾
4
·
5
·
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#3#1
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
ISO
.170
Barrel %
7.8
Hard Hit %
34.1
xwOBA
.272
xBA
.205
Brl / PA %
5.80
Max EV (mph)
108.1
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
108.5
Avg EV on HRs
103.3
Avg HR Distance (ft)
399
HRs in sample
4
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/4
Crushed (105+ mph)
1/4
Avg LA on HRs
30.0°
Brl / PA %
5.80
Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Kai-Wei Teng · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Tough matchup
STSweepervs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.278
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
83
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.246
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
27.3
BRL%
3.0
Pull%
58
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 46 PA this season.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
18
xwOBA
.271
Whiff%
8.6
HH%
22.2
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
61
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 23 PA this season.
Kai-Wei Teng (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY
35.4
3.7
29.6
59
.263
23.5
FF4-Seam Fastball
25.1
5.9
48.5
56
.350
12.2
SISinker
18.0
3.2
42.9
55
.330
23.1
CHChangeup
9.7
6.2
46.7
81
.417
11.5
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
5.0
25.0
65
.284
32.5
40
vs RHB
2.9
32.4
56
.248
20.0
56
FF4-Seam Fastball25% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
4.8
42.9
62
.361
14.3
28
vs RHB
7.7
53.8
46
.335
10.2
21
SISinker18% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
0.0
44.4
67
.365
—
12
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
4.5
45.5
50
.314
25.0
29
CHChangeup10% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
6.2
43.8
81
.417
13.6
20
vs RHB
no sample
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .338). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (HOU)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Daikin Park (315/409/326 ft) · elev 50ft
4 HRs this season
vs RHP 3vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
CH🐾Changeup2
FCCutter1
SISinker1
Bats S · Switch hitter
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
1
games since last HR
2
PAs since last HR
Homers about every 4.0 games · 11 PA (2 HR in 8 G)
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾vs RHP118PA
.131
.290
.527
6.4%
3
vs LHP53PA
.255
.490
.754
13.3%
4
Location
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Home85PA
.195
.390
.661
8.5%
4
🐾Away86PA
.148
.321
.542
8.8%
3
Time
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Day63PA
.211
.351
.573
12.1%
3
🐾Night108PA
.148
.356
.615
6.2%
4
Base State
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
Bases Empty56PA
.157
.392
.696
2
Runners On81PA
.165
.329
.576
3
RISP37PA
.151
.333
.603
1
Outs
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0 Outs55PA
.222
.426
.644
3
1 Out65PA
.164
.344
.575
3
2 Outs51PA
.116
.279
.573
1
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.
