Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.1%

+801

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sonny Gray (0.87 HR/9) · park 85

Batting #7Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.1%

+889

RBI 1+

33.6%

+198

Hits 1+

58.1%

-139

Hits 2+

16.4%

+511

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

20.7%

95% CI · 20.2–21.1%

+384

Fair odds

1st AB

5.4%

Through AB2

10.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
Wind+14%
vs SP-10%
Contact+24%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast+22%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·19 mph wind out to OF
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0461 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+24% (×1.24)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+22% (×1.22)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+680

High

+2605

Low

+280

Med

+612

Avg

+809

🐾+680

Low +280🐾 HR money zoneHigh +2605

WARMspot score 95

Just below his HR money zone (+550 to +550). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+5502026-07-10vs SDbook line

AwayBat 3rdoff RHPSinker

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

14.6

Proj PA

262

HR / PA

.056

ISO

.236

wOBA

.340

wRC+

118

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

42.2

FB%

44.4

Pull%

52.5

Soft%

12.1

GB%

38.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.8

Hard%

42.1

FB%

42.1

Pull%

54.4

Soft%

12.3

GB%

43.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

22.7

Hard%

42.2

FB%

45.2

Pull%

51.8

Soft%

12.0

GB%

36.1

Home

HR/FB

21.3

Hard%

42.9

FB%

42.0

Pull%

48.2

Soft%

14.3

GB%

36.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

23.1

Hard%

41.4

FB%

46.8

Pull%

56.8

Soft%

9.9

GB%

39.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Fenway Park suppresses HRs (85)
Sonny Gray stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
14.4% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (85)
Elite barrel% (14.4)
High barrels/PA (8.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.271↑ vs season .21953 PA · 15d

OPS

.759

ISO

.167

RBI

K-BB

19-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ BOS	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-16	@ BOS	2	0	0	0	2	1	—
06-14	vs NYY	4	2	0	1	0	1	.750
06-13	vs NYY	3	1	1	1	1	1	1.333
💣 352ft · 102.4 EV · 4-Seamer
06-12	vs NYY	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 423ft · 111.4 EV · Slider
06-10	vs PHI	3	0	0	1	1	2	—
06-09	vs PHI	3	1	0	0	0	2	.667
06-08	vs PHI	4	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball95PA	.297	.396	19.7	62.5	66	28.7
🐾FCCutter19PA	—	.147	10.0	66.7	50	42.9
🐾STSweeper31PA	.107	.220	7.1	21.4	79	42.0
🐾CUCurveball19PA	.059	.211	0.0	16.7	64	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.350	.507	17.6	58.8	82	21.6	120	23
vs RHP	.261	.367	20.5	61.4	59	28.3	104	79

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.060	0.0	60.0	40	9.1	120	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.083	.187	20.0	80.0	60	46.5	104	15

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.107	.215	7.7	15.4	77	44.4	104	31

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.203	0.0	0.0	83	18.2	120	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.275	0.0	20.0	40	33.3	104	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Okamoto.

Season Statcast

ISO

.207

Barrel %

14.4

Hard Hit %

49.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.323

xBA

.219

Brl / PA %

8.10

Max EV (mph)

112.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.7

Avg EV on HRs

108.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

411

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

3/10

Crushed (105+ mph)

8/10

Avg LA on HRs

28.8°

Brl / PA %

8.10

Sampled across 10 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sonny Gray · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
21
xwOBA
.396
Whiff%
28.7
HH%
62.5
BRL%
19.7
Pull%
66
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCutter
Use%
21
xwOBA
.147
Whiff%
42.9
HH%
66.7
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.
STSweeper
Use%
18
xwOBA
.220
Whiff%
42.0
HH%
21.4
BRL%
7.1
Pull%
79
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 31 PA this season.

Sonny Gray arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.6	6.1	28.9	57	.359	23.8
FCCutter	20.6	5.8	26.1	54	.351	6.3
STSweeper	18.4	8.3	51.5	72	.257	19.8
CUCurveball	18.3	12.5	42.9	67	.389	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	7.0	30.2	58	.368	25.0	55
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	50	.300	16.7	10

FCCutter21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	27.8	56	.384	14.3	22
vs RHB	2.9	23.5	53	.328	0.0	36

STSweeper18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	66.7	73	.235	25.0	33
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	38.1	71	.282	17.8	36

CUCurveball18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.5	42.9	62	.360	14.7	30
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .667). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

10 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

SLSlider2

STSweeper1

SISinker1

FSSplitter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 16 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP222PA	.205	.429	.735	15.3%	11
vs LHP73PA	.216	.462	.791	11.8%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home152PA	.191	.441	.757	15.6%	7
🐾Away143PA	.224	.432	.740	12.7%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day116PA	.262	.505	.833	13.2%	7
Night179PA	.170	.392	.694	15.2%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty80PA	.313	.522	.860	6
Runners On141PA	.142	.370	.661	5
RISP83PA	.080	.320	.609	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs104PA	.202	.457	.774	5
1 Out85PA	.280	.533	.862	6
2 Outs106PA	.152	.337	.629	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.