Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.8%

+1030

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trevor McDonald (RHP) (0.69 HR/9) · park 100

2+ RBI

8.9%

+1028

RBI 1+

32.4%

+208

Hits 1+

63.3%

-173

Hits 2+

21.1%

+373

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.6%

95% CI · 14.2–15.0%

+587

Fair odds

1st AB

3.2%

Through AB2

6.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

vs SP-18%
Contact+8%
SP Contact-17%
Statcast+8%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0447 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-18% (×0.82) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+8% (×1.08)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+8% (×1.08)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 1 HR

Now

+1030

High

+1190

Low

+380

Med

+675

Avg

+678

🐾+1030

Low +380🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1190

WARMspot score 94

Just below his HR money zone (+830 to +830). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

17.0

Proj PA

357

HR / PA

.048

ISO

.223

wOBA

.360

wRC+

131

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.4

Hard%

31.5

FB%

42.7

Pull%

42.0

Soft%

13.3

GB%

35.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

18.2

Hard%

32.4

FB%

32.4

Pull%

47.1

Soft%

11.8

GB%

35.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

16.0

Hard%

31.2

FB%

45.9

Pull%

40.4

Soft%

13.8

GB%

34.9

Home

HR/FB

19.4

Hard%

31.5

FB%

42.5

Pull%

45.2

Soft%

6.8

GB%

35.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

31.4

FB%

42.9

Pull%

38.6

Soft%

20.0

GB%

34.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Trevor McDonald stingy: only 0.69 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (59% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .893 OPS over last 15 days
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (5.7%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.69 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.298↑ vs season .24850 PA · 15d

OPS

.893

ISO

.255

RBI

K-BB

13-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ SF	4	2	0	1	0	1	1.000
06-11	@ COL	4	1	1	4	0	2	1.000
💣 400ft · 107.7 EV · Slider
06-10	@ COL	4	1	0	0	0	3	.250
06-09	@ COL	4	1	0	1	0	0	.250
06-07	vs SF	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-06	vs SF	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-05	vs SF	1	1	1	1	3	0	4.000
💣 387ft · 105.6 EV · Sinker
06-04	vs ATH	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR39PA	.258	.434	11.1	48.1	63	14.9
🐾SLSlidervR36PA	.151	.303	4.3	39.1	74	34.7
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.453	0.0	50.0	50	13.3	127	9
vs RHPTONIGHT	.258	.434	11.1	48.1	63	14.9	106	39

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.428	.473	20.0	40.0	40	14.3	127	9
vs RHPTONIGHT	.151	.303	4.3	39.1	74	34.7	106	36

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Suzuki.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 32 of 54 career HRs (59%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.173

Barrel %

9.1

Hard Hit %

42.0

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.329

xBA

.248

Brl / PA %

5.70

Max EV (mph)

112.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

112.6

Avg EV on HRs

106.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

414

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/7

Avg LA on HRs

28.6°

Brl / PA %

5.70

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trevor McDonald · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
58
xwOBA
.434
Whiff%
14.9
HH%
48.1
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
63
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.303
Whiff%
34.7
HH%
39.1
BRL%
4.3
Pull%
74
CHChangeup
Use%
13
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Career vs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Trevor McDonald (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	57.5	3.5	41.8	57	.303	23.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.9	4.3	40.9	57	.267	24.2
CHChangeup	13.2	20.0	30.0	60	.375	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker58% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.2	43.8	63	.329	21.1	60
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.6	42.1	50	.274	26.5	54

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	13	.335	22.2	19
vs RHB	6.7	46.7	80	.216	23.1	24

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	22.2	33.3	56	.421	24.1	17
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .462). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SI🐾Sinker2

STSweeper1

FCCutter1

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP176PA	.188	.440	.758	9.2%	8
vs LHP57PA	.149	.404	.790	8.8%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home113PA	.221	.474	.837	8.2%	6
🐾Away120PA	.144	.396	.704	10.0%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day87PA	.187	.400	.710	7.5%	4
🐾Night146PA	.175	.450	.799	10.0%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty72PA	.091	.364	.697	1
Runners On121PA	.179	.415	.737	5
RISP71PA	.113	.258	.497	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs71PA	.317	.603	.969	6
1 Out80PA	.195	.403	.678	3
2 Outs82PA	.042	.310	.676	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-012PA	.083	.500	.917	0
1-020PA	.706	1.353	2.053	4
0-116PA	.188	.500	.812	1
2-03PA	—	.333	.667	0
0-219PA	—	.105	.211	0
3-04PA	—	1.000	2.000	0
1-233PA	.030	.182	.333	0
2-240PA	.175	.375	.575	2
3-241PA	.120	.200	.615	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.