Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.8%

+920

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joe Ryan (0.88 HR/9) · park 91

Batting #2Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.4%

+965

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

71.2%

-247

Hits 2+

30.0%

+234

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.4%

95% CI · 12.0–12.8%

+707

Fair odds

1st AB

3.5%

Through AB2

6.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Lineup+3%
Contact+19%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast-8%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0318 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-9% (×0.91)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-8% (×0.92)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+600

High

+1340

Low

+475

Med

+868

Avg

+832

+600

Low +475High +1340

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.5

Proj PA

255

HR / PA

.033

ISO

.164

wOBA

.325

wRC+

108

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

42.4

FB%

30.1

Pull%

40.1

Soft%

9.3

GB%

43.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

35.0

FB%

28.3

Pull%

31.7

Soft%

6.7

GB%

43.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.9

Hard%

44.5

FB%

30.6

Pull%

42.6

Soft%

10.0

GB%

43.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

15.4

Hard%

42.1

FB%

32.2

Pull%

50.4

Soft%

6.6

GB%

43.8

Away

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

42.6

FB%

28.4

Pull%

31.8

Soft%

11.5

GB%

42.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
Joe Ryan stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CU)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (38% of career HRs)
94°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (91)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.255↓ vs season .29853 PA · 15d

OPS

.659

ISO

.064

RBI

K-BB

9-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs MIN	3	0	0	0	0	—
06-15	vs MIN	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	@ BOS	3	1	0	1	0	.333
06-13	@ BOS	4	1	0	1	2	.250
06-12	@ BOS	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-11	@ KC	4	0	0	0	3	—
06-10	@ KC	5	1	1	1	2	.200
06-09	@ KC	4	2	0	0	0	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball74PA	.250	.364	14.3	52.1	45	16.5
🐾STSweeper30PA	.066	.286	0.0	24.0	69	11.8
🐾CUCurveball21PA	.263	.441	14.3	56.3	71	23.5
🐾SISinker73PA	.030	.323	0.0	38.6	49	10.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.307	.383	9.1	45.5	36	8.3	146	16
vs RHP	.231	.359	15.8	55.3	47	15.5	122	60

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.072	.310	0.0	28.0	68	10.9	122	28

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.518	20.0	60.0	60	12.5	146	6
vs RHP	.454	.438	11.1	66.7	78	20.0	122	11

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.386	0.0	41.7	33	0.0	146	14
vs RHP	.036	.310	0.0	40.4	53	12.7	122	61

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jung.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Confirmed0 of 8 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 3 of 8 career HRs (38%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#6#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.153

Barrel %

5.1

Hard Hit %

45.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.352

xBA

.298

Brl / PA %

3.80

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.1

Avg EV on HRs

101.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

385

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/6

Avg LA on HRs

29.8°

Brl / PA %

3.80

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joe Ryan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
44
xwOBA
.364
Whiff%
16.5
HH%
52.1
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
45
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.286
Whiff%
11.8
HH%
24.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
69
CUCurveball
Use%
12
xwOBA
.441
Whiff%
23.5
HH%
56.3
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
71
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Joe Ryan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.1	12.6	48.5	56	.310	18.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.0	10.0	28.6	77	.234	32.1
CUCurveball	12.2	—	24.0	—	.219	21.3
SISinker	11.8	10.0	50.0	45	.301	17.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	50.7	57	.308	23.4	105
vs RHB	11.1	47.2	53	.311	13.4	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	75	.331	33.3	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	22.2	78	.180	30.2	33

SISinker12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	58	.301	21.1	20
vs RHB	14.3	64.3	39	.304	12.9	32

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .437). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP224PA	.155	.451	.795	5.0%	6
vs LHP64PA	.146	.455	.861	6.0%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home120PA	.227	.591	1.008	8.6%	6
Away168PA	.099	.351	.666	2.4%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day89PA	.215	.557	.961	6.2%	4
Night199PA	.127	.407	.744	4.9%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty103PA	.136	.438	.788	3
Runners On126PA	.150	.421	.786	3
RISP66PA	.170	.472	.881	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs90PA	.173	.506	.862	3
1 Out96PA	.224	.565	.961	4
2 Outs102PA	.067	.292	.616	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.