Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
9.5%
+955
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 91
2+ RBI
9.2%
+985
RBI 1+
32.7%
+205
Hits 1+
71.2%
-247
Hits 2+
30.0%
+234
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter13.7%
95% CI · 13.3–14.1%
+632
Fair odds
1st AB
3.5%
Through AB2
6.8%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park-9%
- Temp+5%
- Contact+18%
- Statcast-7%
🎯 Early-AB cues
- ·85F game
- ·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0311 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park-9% (×0.91)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-7% (×0.93)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 18 games · 2 HR
Now
+470
High
+930
Low
+490
Med
+570
Avg
+638
🐾🐾+470
Low +490🐾 HR money zoneHigh +930
🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100
Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 2× priced here.
⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
🐾+9302026-06-07vs CLEfair odds
HomeBat 2ndoff LHP4-Seamer
🐾+6002026-05-28vs HOUbook line
Homeoff RHPCutter
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
10.7
Proj PA
348
HR / PA
.031
ISO
.155
wOBA
.319
wRC+
103
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
13.1
Hard%
37.0
FB%
29.3
Pull%
41.8
Soft%
10.1
GB%
43.3
vs LHP
HR/FB
13.3
Hard%
33.3
FB%
31.3
Pull%
31.3
Soft%
8.3
GB%
45.8
vs RHP
HR/FB
13.0
Hard%
38.1
FB%
28.7
Pull%
45.0
Soft%
10.6
GB%
42.5
🐾Home
HR/FB
21.4
Hard%
35.6
FB%
32.2
Pull%
55.2
Soft%
8.0
GB%
44.8
Away
HR/FB
6.1
Hard%
38.0
FB%
27.3
Pull%
32.2
Soft%
11.6
GB%
42.1
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
2.0 🐾DART THROW
- Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
- Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (38% of career HRs)
- 85°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park drag (91)
- High barrels/PA (4.0%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.286↓ vs season .29855 PA · 15d
OPS
.712
ISO
.081
HR
1
RBI
7
K-BB
12-4
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 | @ BOS | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .250 |
| 06-12 | @ BOS | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 |
| 06-11 | @ KC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 06-10 | @ KC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .200 |
| 06-09 | @ KC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
| 06-07 | vs CLE | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.250 |
| 💣 382ft · 100.4 EV · 4-Seamer | ||||||||
| 06-06 | vs CLE | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 |
| 06-05 | vs CLE | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC13PA | .615 | .521 | 7.1 | 76.9 | 57 | 23.5 |
| CU21PA | .263 | .441 | 14.3 | 56.3 | 71 | 23.5 |
| FF73PA | .254 | .361 | 14.6 | 51.1 | 46 | 17.1 |
| SL36PA | .122 | .357 | 3.3 | 35.7 | 53 | 31.3 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FCCutter
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | .666 | .539 | 8.3 | 83.3 | 67 | 12.5 | 130 | 12 |
CUCurveball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES | — | .518 | 20.0 | 60.0 | 60 | 12.5 | 142 | 6 |
| vs RHP | .454 | .438 | 11.1 | 66.7 | 78 | 20.0 | 130 | 11 |
FF4-Seam Fastball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .334 | .369 | 10.0 | 40.0 | 40 | 8.7 | 142 | 15 |
| vs RHP | .231 | .359 | 15.8 | 55.3 | 47 | 16.0 | 130 | 60 |
SLSlider
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES | .600 | .558 | 20.0 | 40.0 | 20 | 22.2 | 142 | 5 |
| vs RHP | .033 | .325 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 60 | 29.5 | 130 | 33 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
94
🐾vs RHB
91
vs SHB
92
Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jung.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 3 of 8 career HRs (38%).
1
·
2
·
3
3
🐾
4
·
2
5
🐾
3
6
🐾
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#3#6#5
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
ISO
.159
Barrel %
5.3
Hard Hit %
44.7
Pull % (HRs)
33
xwOBA
.350
xBA
.298
Brl / PA %
4.00
Max EV (mph)
110.1
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
107.1
Avg EV on HRs
101.8
Avg HR Distance (ft)
385
HRs in sample
6
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/6
Crushed (105+ mph)
2/6
Avg LA on HRs
29.8°
Brl / PA %
4.00
Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .437). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft
6 HRs this season
vs RHP 5vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3
CHChangeup1
SLSlider1
CUCurveball1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
5
games since last HR
23
PAs since last HR
Homers about every 8.0 games · 36 PA (1 HR in 8 G)
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP215PA | .162 | .470 | .823 | 5.2% | 6 |
| vs LHP61PA | .151 | .453 | .846 | 6.2% | 2 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home113PA | .243 | .631 | 1.073 | 9.1% | 6 |
| Away163PA | .101 | .351 | .658 | 2.5% | 2 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day89PA | .215 | .557 | .961 | 6.2% | 4 |
| 🐾Night187PA | .133 | .424 | .766 | 5.2% | 4 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty99PA | .140 | .441 | .784 | 3 |
| Runners On121PA | .155 | .437 | .809 | 3 |
| RISP64PA | .173 | .481 | .887 | 2 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs84PA | .185 | .531 | .900 | 3 |
| 1 Out93PA | .226 | .571 | .958 | 4 |
| 2 Outs99PA | .069 | .302 | .635 | 1 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.