Home Run
15.0%
+564
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs Kyle Leahy (RHP) (1.27 HR/9) · park 92
2+ RBI
12.3%
+715
RBI 1+
35.5%
+181
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
FG · Blended (2-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter4.8%
95% CI · 4.5–5.0%
+1995
Fair odds
1st AB
1.1%
Through AB2
2.2%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park-8%
- Wind+20%
- Temp+5%
- vs SP-10%
- SP Contact-4%
- SP Statcast+5%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kyle Leahy (RHP)
- ·24 mph wind out to OF
- ·89F game
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0111 · blended_2sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj
Park-8% (×0.92)
Wind+20% (×1.20)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)
SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)
Discipline+1% (×1.01)
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-16 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
0.6
Proj PA
22
HR / PA
.025
ISO
.135
wOBA
.276
wRC+
76
Why this pick
4.0 🐾STRONG PLAY
- Busch Stadium suppresses HRs (92)
- 90°F — ball flies in warm air
- 24 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
- Park drag (92)
- High barrels/PA (6.2%)
- Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (12.0% brl)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
89
🐾vs RHB
92
vs SHB
90
Busch Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Hunt.
Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Kyle Leahy · top 3 pitches tonight
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Unknown
- FF4-Seam FastballUse%29xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
- CUCurveballUse%16xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
- SLSliderUse%16xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
Kyle Leahy (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
| Pitch | Use% | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FF | 28.9 | 16.4 | 66.7 | 51 | .455 | 17.2 |
| CU⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT | 15.8 | 7.4 | 60.0 | 82 | .288 | 20.7 |
| SL | 15.8 | 12.1 | 40.6 | 61 | .375 | 13.3 |
| SI | 13.5 | 4.3 | 44.2 | 54 | .417 | 14.3 |
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball29% use
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT | 16.3 | 65.1 | 49 | .474 | 17.5 | 57 |
| vs RHB | 16.7 | 55.6 | 56 | .402 | 13.0 | 22 |
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | 10.0 | 60.0 | 75 | .292 | 22.7 | 33 |
| vs RHB | 0.0 | 42.9 | 100 | .270 | 11.1 | 9 |
SLSlider16% use
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT | 7.1 | 35.7 | 86 | .428 | 0.0 | 17 |
| vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY | 15.8 | 42.1 | 42 | .334 | 28.6 | 23 |
SISinker14% use
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT | 10.0 | 80.0 | 80 | .537 | 27.3 | 14 |
| vs RHB | 2.8 | 33.3 | 47 | .380 | 13.6 | 52 |
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 20.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
Hover / tap a cell to inspect.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.