Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.0%

+614

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (0.93 HR/9) · park 114

2+ RBI

11.7%

+755

RBI 1+

35.0%

+186

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.4%

95% CI · 3.2–3.6%

+2818

Fair odds

1st AB

0.7%

Through AB2

1.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
vs SP-35%
Contact+7%
SP Contact-12%
Statcast-18%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0104 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-18% (×0.82)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

SP Statcast allowed-0% (×1.00)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+615

High

+980

Low

+555

Med

+775

Avg

+778

🐾+615

Low +555🐾 HR money zoneHigh +980

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+9802026-07-01vs LADbook line

HomeBat 9thoff LHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.7

Proj PA

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.125

wOBA

.291

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

39.0

FB%

39.7

Pull%

39.0

Soft%

18.6

GB%

41.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

37.9

FB%

44.8

Pull%

34.5

Soft%

20.7

GB%

41.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

40.0

FB%

34.5

Pull%

43.3

Soft%

16.7

GB%

41.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

15.4

Hard%

50.0

FB%

39.4

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

11.8

GB%

42.4

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

24.0

FB%

40.0

Pull%

36.0

Soft%

28.0

GB%

40.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
Hot streak: .977 OPS over last 15 days
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (114)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.353↑ vs season .25037 PA · 15d

OPS

.977

ISO

.235

RBI

K-BB

7-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs PIT	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-16	vs PIT	2	1	0	0	0	1	1.000
06-14	vs COL	4	2	0	0	0	0	.500
06-13	vs COL	3	3	0	1	1	0	1.667
06-12	vs COL	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs MIL	3	2	1	1	0	0	1.667
💣 371ft · 99.3 EV · Cutter
06-09	vs MIL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-08	vs MIL	5	1	0	1	0	1	.400

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker12PA	.083	.214	0.0	44.4	60	15.0
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball12PA	.091	.320	0.0	30.0	15	7.7
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.238	0.0	62.5	75	13.3	103	11

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.200	.055	0.0	0.0	0	22.2	—	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.509	0.0	33.3	22	0.0	103	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Williams.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinker
Use%
26
xwOBA
.214
Whiff%
15.0
HH%
44.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
60
CUCurveball
Use%
25
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
24
xwOBA
.320
Whiff%
7.7
HH%
30.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
15

Career vs José Soriano

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

José Soriano arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	25.7	9.0	49.4	69	.395	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.4	—	26.2	—	.240	27.2
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	17.0	47.1	51	.412	17.5
FSSplit-Finger	20.1	2.2	18.2	73	.194	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	61.5	72	.481	4.2	49
vs RHB	7.7	38.5	67	.318	25.0	53

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	48.5	58	.453	15.7	52
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.2	40

FSSplit-Finger20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	19.4	78	.195	24.7	61
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.1	22.2	56	.190	26.1	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .177). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 25 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP27PA	.160	.440	.748	—	1
vs LHP20PA	.210	.526	.876	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home31PA	.276	.621	.988	—	1
Away16PA	—	.200	.450	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day13PA	—	.308	.616	—	0
🐾Night34PA	.258	.548	.881	—	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty21PA	.300	.550	.836	1
Runners On16PA	.072	.429	.829	0
RISP11PA	.112	.556	1.056	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs15PA	.071	.357	.643	0
1 Out15PA	.428	.714	1.047	1
2 Outs17PA	.062	.375	.728	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.