Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

20.0%

+401

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Kyle Freeland (LHP) (2.21 HR/9) · park 114

2+ RBI

15.0%

+568

RBI 1+

38.0%

+163

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.5%

95% CI · 11.1–11.8%

+771

Fair odds

1st AB

3.4%

Through AB2

6.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
Temp+5%
vs SP+27%
Contact+16%
SP Contact+16%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kyle Freeland (LHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0167 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+400

High

+6000

Low

+405

Med

+625

Avg

+1148

+400

Low +405High +6000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.9

Proj PA

HR / PA

.016

ISO

.112

wOBA

.291

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

33.3

FB%

47.8

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

4.2

GB%

47.8

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

20.0

FB%

50.0

Pull%

10.0

Soft%

10.0

GB%

50.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

42.9

FB%

46.2

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

0.0

GB%

46.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

42.9

FB%

61.5

Pull%

35.7

Soft%

7.1

GB%

38.5

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

20.0

FB%

30.0

Pull%

30.0

Soft%

0.0

GB%

60.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Las Vegas Ballpark mild HR boost (+14)
Kyle Freeland is leaky — 2.21 HR/9 allowed
87°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (114)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher HR-prone (2.21 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.222↓ vs season .25029 PA · 15d

OPS

.657

ISO

.185

RBI

K-BB

8-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs COL	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs MIL	3	2	1	1	0	0	1.667
💣 371ft · 99.3 EV · Cutter
06-09	vs MIL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-08	vs MIL	5	1	0	1	0	1	.400
06-07	@ HOU	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-04	@ CHC	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-03	@ CHC	4	1	0	1	0	2	.250
06-02	@ CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-SeamervL5PA	.200	.055	0.0	—	0	25.0
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seamer

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.200	.055	0.0	0.0	0	25.0	—	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.327	0.0	14.3	14	0.0	—	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Williams.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Kyle Freeland · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.055
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
0
CUCurveball
Use%
23
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Kyle Freeland (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.2	11.5	42.9	60	.450	8.8
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.6	—	52.6	—	.382	19.7
FCCutter	17.9	12.9	33.3	71	.363	16.7
CHChangeup	15.9	6.7	51.2	60	.371	15.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	44.4	56	.359	4.3	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.0	39.5	61	.465	11.3	58

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	16.7	67	.429	16.7	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.0	40.0	72	.348	15.0	29

CHChangeup16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	6.7	51.1	60	.372	14.0	54

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .177). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP21PA	.200	.450	.700	—	1
🐾vs LHP14PA	.077	.231	.445	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home19PA	.278	.500	.722	—	1
Away16PA	—	.200	.450	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day9PA	—	.222	.444	—	0
🐾Night26PA	.209	.417	.657	—	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty16PA	.267	.467	.717	1
Runners On13PA	.083	.333	.583	0
RISP9PA	.125	.500	.875	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs9PA	—	.125	.250	0
1 Out12PA	.363	.545	.795	1
2 Outs14PA	.071	.357	.643	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-06PA	.600	1.200	1.700	1
1-01PA	1.000	2.000	3.000	0
0-14PA	—	—	—	0
2-04PA	—	—	—	0
0-25PA	—	—	—	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-29PA	—	.111	.222	0
2-28PA	—	.250	.500	0
3-25PA	.250	.500	.900	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Sat.