Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

6.0%

+1570

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sonny Gray (0.87 HR/9) · park 85

Batting #5Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

7.3%

+1271

RBI 1+

31.0%

+223

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.4%

95% CI · 4.2–4.7%

+2151

Fair odds

1st AB

1.0%

Through AB2

2.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
Wind+14%
vs SP-10%
Contact-19%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast-17%
SP Statcast-2%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·19 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0204 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-19% (×0.81)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+840

High

+4000

Low

+570

Med

+850

Avg

+1091

+840

Low +570High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.8

Proj PA

256

HR / PA

.019

ISO

.121

wOBA

.294

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

23.9

FB%

41.8

Pull%

46.6

Soft%

16.6

GB%

38.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

15.7

FB%

47.2

Pull%

44.9

Soft%

21.3

GB%

32.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

5.4

Hard%

27.0

FB%

39.7

Pull%

47.3

Soft%

14.8

GB%

40.2

Home

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

27.4

FB%

47.0

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

14.9

GB%

34.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

3.5

Hard%

20.3

FB%

36.3

Pull%

51.9

Soft%

18.4

GB%

41.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Fenway Park suppresses HRs (85)
Sonny Gray stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (60% of career HRs)
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (85)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.259↑ vs season .25056 PA · 15d

OPS

.694

ISO

.167

RBI

K-BB

12-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ BOS	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-16	@ BOS	5	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-14	vs NYY	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-13	vs NYY	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-12	vs NYY	5	2	0	1	0	0	.600
06-10	vs PHI	3	1	0	1	1	1	.333
06-09	vs PHI	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-08	vs PHI	4	2	1	1	0	1	1.250
💣 399ft · 100.0 EV · Sinker

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball72PA	.232	.258	0.0	26.2	51	11.9
🐾FCCutter23PA	.182	.258	9.1	36.4	68	18.4
🐾STSweeper26PA	.080	.222	0.0	11.1	78	32.0
🐾CUCurveball25PA	.040	.232	0.0	16.7	72	13.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.083	.158	0.0	14.3	43	5.8	98	24
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.286	.303	0.0	31.2	54	11.1	114	52

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.200	.282	10.0	40.0	70	17.1	114	21

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.091	.156	0.0	6.2	75	29.3	114	22

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.105	0.0	0.0	70	20.0	98	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.344	0.0	37.5	75	15.4	114	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Clement.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Confirmed1 of 5 HRs · 20%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 3 of 5 career HRs (60%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.151

Barrel %

2.7

Hard Hit %

25.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.267

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

2.40

Max EV (mph)

109.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

99.4

Avg EV on HRs

98.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

370

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

26.0°

Brl / PA %

2.40

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sonny Gray · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
21
xwOBA
.258
Whiff%
11.9
HH%
26.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
51
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 72 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
21
xwOBA
.258
Whiff%
18.4
HH%
36.4
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
68
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 23 PA this season.
STSweeper
Use%
18
xwOBA
.222
Whiff%
32.0
HH%
11.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
78
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 26 PA this season.

Sonny Gray arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.6	6.1	28.9	57	.359	23.8
FCCutter	20.6	5.8	26.1	54	.351	6.3
STSweeper	18.4	8.3	51.5	72	.257	19.8
CUCurveball	18.3	12.5	42.9	67	.389	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	7.0	30.2	58	.368	25.0	55
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	50	.300	16.7	10

FCCutter21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	27.8	56	.384	14.3	22
vs RHB	2.9	23.5	53	.328	0.0	36

STSweeper18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	66.7	73	.235	25.0	33
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	38.1	71	.282	17.8	36

CUCurveball18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.5	42.9	62	.360	14.7	30
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .366). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CH🐾Changeup2

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 35 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP209PA	.138	.448	.773	2.1%	4
vs LHP87PA	.183	.439	.726	4.1%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home161PA	.195	.494	.811	2.8%	6
🐾Away135PA	.099	.389	.700	2.6%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day126PA	.136	.448	.765	0.8%	3
Night170PA	.163	.444	.756	4.3%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty102PA	.101	.394	.708	0
Runners On125PA	.141	.433	.737	3
RISP64PA	.116	.383	.664	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs104PA	.180	.520	.876	4
1 Out97PA	.096	.333	.591	0
2 Outs95PA	.174	.478	.804	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.