Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

15.9%

+527

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Connor Prielipp (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 107

2+ RBI

12.8%

+683

RBI 1+

36.0%

+178

Hits 1+

70.8%

-242

Hits 2+

29.4%

+240

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

18.1%

95% CI · 17.6–18.5%

+454

Fair odds

1st AB

4.5%

Through AB2

9.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
vs SP-12%
Contact+14%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast+19%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Connor Prielipp (LHP)

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0366 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.88) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+19% (×1.19)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 1 HR

Now

+525

High

+905

Low

+440

Med

+650

Avg

+654

🐾+525

Low +440🐾 HR money zoneHigh +905

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

14.4

Proj PA

383

HR / PA

.038

ISO

.179

wOBA

.342

wRC+

119

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

38.3

FB%

38.0

Pull%

48.6

Soft%

12.2

GB%

42.3

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

4.2

Hard%

37.1

FB%

34.3

Pull%

48.6

Soft%

11.4

GB%

45.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

17.5

Hard%

38.9

FB%

39.9

Pull%

48.6

Soft%

12.5

GB%

40.6

Home

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

39.3

FB%

34.8

Pull%

53.6

Soft%

12.5

GB%

43.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

37.3

FB%

41.6

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

11.8

GB%

40.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Target Field mild HR boost (+7)
Connor Prielipp stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Crushes 3/3 of SP's top pitches (SL, FF, CU)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (49% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.058 OPS over last 15 days
High barrels/PA (8.5%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.321↑ vs season .29558 PA · 15d

OPS

1.058

ISO

.358

RBI

K-BB

8-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ MIN	4	1	1	2	1	2	1.000
06-11	@ NYM	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 424ft · 107.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-10	@ NYM	5	1	1	1	0	0	.800
💣 408ft · 111.7 EV · Cutter
06-09	@ NYM	5	2	1	3	0	2	1.200
💣 378ft · 101.0 EV · Curveball
06-07	vs CIN	4	1	0	0	1	0	.500
06-06	vs CIN	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-05	vs CIN	4	2	1	1	1	0	1.250
💣 387ft · 106.3 EV · Sinker
06-03	vs TEX	4	2	0	3	0	0	.750

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SLSlidervL18PA	.059	.312	0.0	43.8	69	17.2
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL19PA	.235	.441	16.7	58.3	67	12.9
🐾CUCurveballvL4PA	—	.310	0.0	25.0	75	12.5
🐾CHChangeup49PA	.196	.298	7.3	25.6	73	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.059	.312	0.0	43.8	69	17.2	43	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.467	.483	25.0	50.0	58	25.7	174	18

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.235	.441	16.7	58.3	67	12.9	43	19
vs RHP	.218	.419	12.5	62.5	68	27.1	174	60

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.310	0.0	25.0	75	12.5	43	4
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.312	.418	25.0	83.3	58	18.2	174	17

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.204	.289	5.1	25.6	72	17.5	174	47

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

107

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Burleson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 17 of 35 career HRs (49%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.196

Barrel %

11.2

Hard Hit %

47.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.389

xBA

.295

Brl / PA %

8.50

Max EV (mph)

111.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.6

Avg EV on HRs

108.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

408

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

6/7

Avg LA on HRs

27.0°

Brl / PA %

8.50

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Connor Prielipp · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.312
Whiff%
17.2
HH%
43.8
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
69
FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.441
Whiff%
12.9
HH%
58.3
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveballvs LHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.310
Whiff%
12.5
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75

Connor Prielipp (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SLSlider	31.7	12.8	43.6	51	.293	19.6
FF4-Seam Fastball	30.6	8.3	30.6	33	.397	10.0
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.3	0.0	20.0	90	.074	23.8
CHChangeup	12.6	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SLSlider32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	21.1	47.4	42	.314	17.9	28
vs RHB	5.0	40.0	60	.278	20.6	38

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	33	.494	20.0	11
vs RHB	3.3	23.3	33	.361	6.8	41

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	75	.127	5.3	5
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	16.7	100	.061	31.8	21

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .526). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SLSlider2

FCCutter1

CHChangeup1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP205PA	.266	.594	.999	12.3%	11
🐾vs LHP84PA	.063	.266	.504	8.5%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home150PA	.165	.451	.804	10.0%	5
🐾Away139PA	.246	.540	.900	12.3%	7

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day116PA	.113	.377	.687	6.7%	3
Night173PA	.268	.575	.962	14.9%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty81PA	.287	.534	.855	5
Runners On163PA	.126	.441	.828	3
RISP88PA	.167	.500	.886	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs88PA	.256	.549	.890	4
1 Out101PA	.178	.489	.855	4
2 Outs100PA	.184	.448	.808	4

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-044PA	.455	.955	1.455	4
1-018PA	—	.278	.556	0
0-129PA	.104	.414	.724	0
2-07PA	—	.143	.286	0
0-232PA	—	.156	.312	0
3-06PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-250PA	.180	.420	.660	2
2-229PA	.111	.370	.681	1
3-231PA	.095	.381	.897	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.