Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.5%

+641

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (1.03 HR/9) · park 79

Batting #5Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.4%

+775

RBI 1+

34.8%

+188

Hits 1+

71.1%

-246

Hits 2+

29.8%

+236

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

17.8%

95% CI · 17.3–18.2%

+462

Fair odds

1st AB

4.8%

Through AB2

9.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind-2%
vs SP+3%
Contact+19%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast+20%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0375 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+3% (×1.03) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+20% (×1.20)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+545

High

+1035

Low

+380

Med

+710

Avg

+726

+545

Low +380High +1035

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.8

Proj PA

263

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.189

wOBA

.342

wRC+

118

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.5

Hard%

40.1

FB%

36.9

Pull%

49.7

Soft%

10.9

GB%

43.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

6.1

Hard%

36.0

FB%

33.0

Pull%

48.0

Soft%

10.0

GB%

50.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

42.1

FB%

38.8

Pull%

50.5

Soft%

11.4

GB%

40.8

Home

HR/FB

10.9

Hard%

40.4

FB%

34.2

Pull%

52.8

Soft%

10.6

GB%

46.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

16.1

Hard%

39.7

FB%

40.0

Pull%

46.1

Soft%

11.3

GB%

40.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (49% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.030 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (79)
High barrels/PA (8.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.291↓ vs season .29759 PA · 15d

OPS

1.030

ISO

.400

RBI

K-BB

7-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SD	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-16	vs SD	5	1	0	0	0	0	.200
06-15	vs SD	4	1	0	1	0	0	.500
06-14	@ MIN	4	1	1	1	0	2	1.000
💣 397ft · 110.4 EV · Curveball
06-13	@ MIN	5	1	0	0	0	0	.200
06-12	@ MIN	4	1	1	2	1	2	1.000
💣 419ft · 108.8 EV · 4-Seamer
06-11	@ NYM	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 424ft · 107.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-10	@ NYM	5	1	1	1	0	0	.800
💣 408ft · 111.7 EV · Cutter

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball79PA	.268	.463	15.8	64.8	67	23.2
🐾CHChangeup54PA	.196	.299	6.7	27.9	73	18.9
🐾FCCutter26PA	.273	.390	11.8	47.1	71	24.1
🐾CUCurveball28PA	.307	.455	22.2	68.2	67	18.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.235	.441	16.7	58.3	67	12.9	28	19
vs RHP	.250	.470	15.6	62.2	67	25.0	175	66

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.204	.290	4.7	27.9	72	15.6	175	52

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.300	.400	13.3	46.7	67	21.3	175	24

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.260	0.0	20.0	80	10.0	28	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.470	.489	30.8	84.6	62	17.6	175	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Burleson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Projected4 of 35 HRs · 11%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 17 of 35 career HRs (49%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.203

Barrel %

11.5

Hard Hit %

47.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.390

xBA

.297

Brl / PA %

8.70

Max EV (mph)

111.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.6

Avg EV on HRs

108.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

408

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

6/7

Avg LA on HRs

27.0°

Brl / PA %

8.70

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.463
Whiff%
23.2
HH%
64.8
BRL%
15.8
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
.299
Whiff%
18.9
HH%
27.9
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
73
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
.390
Whiff%
24.1
HH%
47.1
BRL%
11.8
Pull%
71
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Noah Cameron

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (5 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Noah Cameron arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.5	10.8	52.5	55	.362	9.8
CHChangeup	21.9	4.3	22.7	60	.262	20.0
FCCutter	19.4	5.3	37.0	74	.354	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.1	13.0	30.0	87	.185	26.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.0	16
vs RHB	7.8	52.9	55	.334	9.9	63

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	50	.119	30.8	9
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.7	23.3	61	.280	18.3	61

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	35.3	77	.306	27.3	22
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	73	.374	14.3	48

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	27.8	83	.190	25.6	42

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .526). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SLSlider2

FCCutter1

CHChangeup1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE — overdue

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.0 games · 9 PA (4 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP220PA	.267	.595	.995	13.1%	12
vs LHP91PA	.058	.244	.464	7.6%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home163PA	.157	.438	.782	9.8%	5
🐾Away148PA	.252	.541	.892	13.0%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day129PA	.126	.387	.689	7.0%	4
🐾Night182PA	.260	.562	.941	15.2%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty85PA	.311	.558	.876	6
Runners On178PA	.120	.430	.806	3
RISP93PA	.169	.506	.893	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs95PA	.236	.517	.843	4
1 Out104PA	.204	.516	.881	5
2 Outs112PA	.171	.434	.782	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.