Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.5%

+547

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Aaron Nola (RHP) (1.67 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

12.5%

+700

RBI 1+

35.7%

+180

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

20.1%

95% CI · 19.6–20.5%

+398

Fair odds

1st AB

5.8%

Through AB2

11.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Temp+5%
vs SP+15%
Contact+26%
SP Contact+7%
SP Statcast+1%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Aaron Nola (RHP)

·88F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (season) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0394 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+15% (×1.15) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+26% (×1.26)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+545

High

+6990

Low

+495

Med

+660

Avg

+1366

+545

Low +495High +6990

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.3

Proj PA

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.152

wOBA

.302

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

28.0

FB%

32.0

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

12.0

GB%

52.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

28.6

Hard%

31.6

FB%

36.8

Pull%

42.1

Soft%

15.8

GB%

42.1

Home

HR/FB

28.6

Hard%

11.1

FB%

38.9

Pull%

55.6

Soft%

11.1

GB%

50.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

71.4

FB%

14.3

Pull%

0.0

Soft%

14.3

GB%

57.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.67 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.250→ vs season .2506 PA · 15d

OPS

.750

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

3-1

Game Log · Last 7

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ CIN	2	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-15	@ CIN	0	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-13	vs ATL	2	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-10	vs STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
05-29	vs MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
05-27	vs CIN	2	1	1	1	0	0	2.000
💣 415ft · 110.1 EV · 4-Seamer
05-26	vs CIN	2	0	0	0	0	1	—

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Wagaman.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 2 of 4 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Aaron Nola · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Unknown

CUCurveball
Use%
34
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
25
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SISinker
Use%
20
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Aaron Nola (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	34.0	—	26.4	—	.232	21.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.7	18.0	50.0	56	.450	21.3
SISinker	19.9	10.4	43.5	60	.387	14.6
CHChangeup	12.0	7.1	40.0	71	.275	6.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.2	54.1	62	.504	14.9	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	23.1	46.2	39	.330	27.3	22

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.0	50.0	70	.401	11.3	35
vs RHB	14.3	39.3	54	.374	20.6	36

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	65	.292	8.7	28
vs RHB	20.0	60.0	100	.187	0.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .413). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 7.0 games · 10 PA (1 HR in 7 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP2PA	—	—	—	—	0
vs LHP8PA	.500	.833	1.333	20.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home7PA	.500	.667	.953	16.7%	1
🐾Away3PA	—	.500	1.167	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day2PA	—	—	—	—	0
Night8PA	.500	.833	1.333	—	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty7PA	.500	.833	1.262	1
Runners On2PA	—	—	.500	0
RISP1PA	—	—	1.000	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs1PA	—	—	—	0
1 Out4PA	—	—	.250	0
2 Outs5PA	.750	1.250	1.850	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Thu.