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Eric WagamanRHB
NYM
🐾 Tonight2:10 PM MT · Citi Field
Home Run
13.0%
+670
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Martín Pérez (LHP) (0.96 HR/9) · park 110
2+ RBI
11.1%
+798
RBI 1+
34.5%
+190
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
14.6%
95% CI · 14.215.0%
+585
Fair odds
1st AB
3.7%
Through AB2
7.3%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park+10%
  • Temp+5%
  • vs SP-8%
  • SP Statcast-2%
  • Discipline+1%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Martín Pérez (LHP)
  • ·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
  • ·90F game
Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0344 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-8% (×0.92) · blended_proj
Park+10% (×1.10)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)
Discipline+1% (×1.01)
HR Odds History
Price range · 9 games
Now
+670
High
+895
Low
+415
Med
+650
Avg
+664
+670
Low +415High +895
BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
0.8
Proj PA
25
HR / PA
.032
ISO
.157
wOBA
.308
wRC+
97
Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
  • Citi Field mild HR boost (+10)
  • 91°F — ball flies in warm air
  • Park boost (110)
  • High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.000 vs season .2501 PA · 15d
OPS
1.000
ISO
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
0-0
Game Log · Last 4
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-10vs STL000000
05-29vs MIA000000
05-27vs CIN2111002.000
💣 415ft · 110.1 EV · 4-Seamer
05-26vs CIN200001
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
99
🐾vs RHB
111
vs SHB
105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Wagaman.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #22 of 4 career HRs (50%).
1
·
2
2
🐾
1
3
🐾
4
·
5
·
1
6
🐾
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#2#3#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonight
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Unknown
  • CHChangeup
    Use%
    33
    xwOBA
    Whiff%
    HH%
    BRL%
    Pull%
  • SISinker
    Use%
    30
    xwOBA
    Whiff%
    HH%
    BRL%
    Pull%
  • FCCutter
    Use%
    22
    xwOBA
    Whiff%
    HH%
    BRL%
    Pull%
Martín Pérez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
CH32.88.323.683.27018.3
SI29.58.949.075.40311.6
FC⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT21.57.745.749.30230.0
CU9.70.050.080.325
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
CHChangeup33% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB14.328.686.16121.319
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT7.522.683.30215.370
SISinker30% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT10.036.777.4376.536
vs RHB7.757.773.37014.039
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY0.00.025.12821.47
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT8.651.451.32933.351
CUCurveball10% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB0.060.080.2380.05
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT0.040.080.4125

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.32.27.25.41🐾.40.36.33.31.22
🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .413). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
vs RHP1PA0
🐾vs LHP4PA1.0001.3331.8331
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Home5PA.7501.0001.40016.7%1
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Night5PA.7501.0001.4001
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty4PA1.0001.3331.8331
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs1PA0
1 Out1PA0
2 Outs3PA1.5002.0002.6671
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-01PA0
1-01PA3.0004.0005.0001
0-22PA1.0002.0000
1-22PA0
2-24PA.250.5000
3-21PA0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.