Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.9%

+912

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Kevin Gausman (RHP) (1.01 HR/9) · park 117

2+ RBI

9.4%

+960

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

62.3%

-165

Hits 2+

20.1%

+397

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.2%

95% CI · 7.9–8.5%

+1123

Fair odds

1st AB

2.0%

Through AB2

3.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Wind+5%
vs SP-3%
Contact-7%
SP Contact+6%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kevin Gausman (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·11 mph wind out to OF
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0216 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-3% (×0.97) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind+5% (×1.05)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 9 games

Now

+910

High

+1300

Low

+750

Med

+945

Avg

+975

+910

Low +750High +1300

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.1

Proj PA

319

HR / PA

.022

ISO

.129

wOBA

.300

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.9

Hard%

26.0

FB%

30.7

Pull%

43.8

Soft%

20.5

GB%

51.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

21.4

Hard%

30.2

FB%

34.1

Pull%

46.5

Soft%

18.6

GB%

43.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

24.3

FB%

29.2

Pull%

42.7

Soft%

21.4

GB%

54.2

Home

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

31.0

FB%

31.3

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

23.9

GB%

53.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

20.5

FB%

30.1

Pull%

44.9

Soft%

17.9

GB%

47.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Rogers Centre is a hitter's haven (+17 for RHB)
Hot streak: .830 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (117)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.294↑ vs season .24239 PA · 15d

OPS

.830

ISO

.177

RBI

K-BB

8-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ TOR	3	2	0	0	1	0	1.000
06-10	@ CLE	4	2	0	2	0	1	.500
06-08	@ CLE	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-07	vs BOS	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-05	vs BOS	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-04	vs CLE	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-03	vs CLE	4	2	1	1	0	1	1.250
💣 364ft · 98.6 EV · Sinker
06-02	vs CLE	3	0	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR34PA	.100	.284	5.0	45.0	50	23.9
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlidervR25PA	.167	.357	5.0	30.0	65	36.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.148	.217	5.9	47.1	53	26.8	92	28
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.100	.284	5.0	45.0	50	23.9	101	34

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.500	.287	0.0	60.0	80	22.2	92	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.167	.357	5.0	30.0	65	36.4	101	25

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

107

🐾vs RHB

117

vs SHB

112

Rogers Centre. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Caballero.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 1 of 3 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#6#8

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.135

Barrel %

2.7

Hard Hit %

26.0

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.286

xBA

.242

Brl / PA %

2.00

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Avg EV on HRs

103.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

365

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/4

Avg LA on HRs

30.8°

Brl / PA %

2.00

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Kevin Gausman · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
53
xwOBA
.284
Whiff%
23.9
HH%
45.0
BRL%
5.0
Pull%
50
FSSplit-Finger
Use%
38
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
9
xwOBA
.357
Whiff%
36.4
HH%
30.0
BRL%
5.0
Pull%
65

Career vs Kevin Gausman (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.750AVG · small sample (4 PA)

OPS

1.750

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Kevin Gausman (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	52.8	9.9	44.9	50	.327	22.1
FSSplit-Finger	38.2	4.7	23.5	68	.232	15.3
SLSlider	9.0	15.4	50.0	62	.330	17.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY53% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.1	53.6	45	.351	20.2	119
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	6.0	37.3	57	.295	23.8	91

FSSplit-Finger38% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.0	19.7	65	.222	14.3	86
vs RHB	10.5	36.8	79	.258	15.9	35

SLSlider9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	10.0	40.0	50	.220	21.1	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .381). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TOR)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Rogers Centre (328/400/328 ft) · elev 269ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

FSSplitter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP138PA	.105	.379	.727	3.7%	2
vs LHP64PA	.197	.443	.709	4.1%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home92PA	.167	.405	.709	5.2%	3
🐾Away110PA	.109	.396	.732	2.5%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day80PA	.027	.243	.506	4.2%	0
Night122PA	.208	.505	.866	3.5%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty78PA	.222	.514	.860	4
Runners On83PA	.108	.392	.741	1
RISP41PA	.088	.412	.827	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs69PA	.094	.297	.558	1
1 Out72PA	.164	.443	.818	2
2 Outs61PA	.150	.467	.795	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-018PA	.166	.444	.722	1
1-014PA	.285	.571	.857	1
0-118PA	.353	.588	.810	2
2-05PA	.200	.400	.600	0
0-223PA	.043	.217	.391	0
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-230PA	.067	.300	.533	0
2-238PA	.028	.306	.621	0
3-226PA	.150	.300	.646	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.