Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.7%

+1050

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Burke (1.11 HR/9) · park 107

Batting #7Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.8%

+1039

RBI 1+

32.4%

+209

Hits 1+

62.3%

-165

Hits 2+

20.1%

+397

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.3%

95% CI · 8.9–9.6%

+980

Fair odds

1st AB

2.6%

Through AB2

5.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
Temp+5%
vs SP+13%
Contact+14%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0225 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+13% (×1.13) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+585

High

+1300

Low

+555

Med

+808

Avg

+797

+585

Low +555High +1300

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.6

Proj PA

225

HR / PA

.025

ISO

.134

wOBA

.295

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

26.9

FB%

33.0

Pull%

46.2

Soft%

19.7

GB%

47.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

23.5

Hard%

29.5

FB%

30.4

Pull%

47.5

Soft%

16.4

GB%

46.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

25.9

FB%

34.1

Pull%

45.6

Soft%

21.1

GB%

47.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

30.9

FB%

34.1

Pull%

42.6

Soft%

22.3

GB%

46.6

Away

HR/FB

17.6

Hard%

23.7

FB%

32.1

Pull%

49.1

Soft%

17.5

GB%

48.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Yankee Stadium mild HR boost (+7)
Hot streak: .905 OPS over last 15 days
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.289↑ vs season .24243 PA · 15d

OPS

.905

ISO

.290

RBI

K-BB

10-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CHW	3	1	0	2	0	0	.333
06-16	vs CHW	4	2	1	2	0	1	1.250
💣 351ft · 90.5 EV · Slider
06-14	@ TOR	5	1	1	3	0	1	.800
💣 420ft · 104.9 EV · Sinker
06-13	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	0	4	—
06-12	@ TOR	3	2	0	0	1	0	1.000
06-10	@ CLE	4	2	0	2	0	1	.500
06-08	@ CLE	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-07	vs BOS	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball66PA	.113	.245	5.0	41.0	50	30.3
🐾CUCurveball18PA	—	.159	0.0	—	67	30.4
🐾SLSlider36PA	.323	.360	3.4	34.5	72	31.1
🐾SISinker44PA	.179	.347	7.1	21.6	57	8.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.134	.226	5.3	42.1	53	26.0	95	31
vs RHP	.091	.261	4.8	42.9	48	24.7	110	37

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.088	0.0	0.0	50	33.3	95	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.213	0.0	0.0	75	8.3	110	10

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.428	.378	0.0	50.0	83	20.0	95	7
vs RHP	.286	.356	4.3	30.4	70	33.3	110	30

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.281	0.0	50.0	63	15.0	95	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.200	.363	8.8	20.6	56	8.8	110	40

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

117

🐾vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Caballero.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #7Confirmed0 of 3 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 1 of 3 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#6#8

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.154

Barrel %

3.1

Hard Hit %

25.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.289

xBA

.242

Brl / PA %

2.30

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Avg EV on HRs

103.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

365

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/4

Avg LA on HRs

30.8°

Brl / PA %

2.30

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Burke · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.245
Whiff%
30.3
HH%
41.0
BRL%
5.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 66 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
22
xwOBA
.159
Whiff%
30.4
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 18 PA this season.
SLSlider
Use%
17
xwOBA
.360
Whiff%
31.1
HH%
34.5
BRL%
3.4
Pull%
72

Sean Burke arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	36.9	11.8	37.3	48	.305	19.5
CUCurveball	21.7	—	40.5	—	.292	19.1
SLSlider	17.1	5.6	32.4	69	.290	17.4
SISinker	16.0	2.3	34.9	51	.333	11.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.9	40.7	58	.362	17.5	92
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	38.2	32	.219	22.8	64

SLSlider17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	37.5	50	.284	21.7	17
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	75	.295	14.8	38

SISinker16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	50.0	50	.358	19.0	24
vs RHB	0.0	25.9	52	.317	10.5	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .381). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

FSSplitter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP149PA	.141	.410	.746	4.2%	4
vs LHP71PA	.179	.433	.715	3.8%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home101PA	.187	.440	.757	4.8%	4
Away119PA	.127	.400	.719	3.4%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day89PA	.060	.265	.512	5.3%	1
🐾Night131PA	.220	.525	.891	3.2%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty86PA	.241	.532	.881	5
Runners On90PA	.137	.425	.769	2
RISP47PA	.154	.487	.891	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs75PA	.085	.271	.511	1
1 Out79PA	.197	.500	.892	3
2 Outs66PA	.184	.492	.810	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.