Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.1%

+725

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

10.7%

+838

RBI 1+

34.1%

+194

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.2%

95% CI · 7.0–7.5%

+1281

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind+9%
Temp+5%
vs SP-1%
Contact+1%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast-6%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Noah Cameron (LHP)

·15 mph wind out to OF
·92F game

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0203 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind+9% (×1.09)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-6% (×0.94)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games

Now

+725

High

+1040

Low

+580

Med

+750

Avg

+768

+725

Low +580High +1040

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.1

Proj PA

217

HR / PA

.024

ISO

.138

wOBA

.313

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

26.9

FB%

43.6

Pull%

35.9

Soft%

19.2

GB%

43.6

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

26.9

FB%

57.7

Pull%

26.9

Soft%

15.4

GB%

38.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

5.3

Hard%

26.9

FB%

36.5

Pull%

40.4

Soft%

21.2

GB%

46.2

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

23.7

FB%

42.1

Pull%

39.5

Soft%

23.7

GB%

42.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

30.0

FB%

45.0

Pull%

32.5

Soft%

15.0

GB%

45.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Noah Cameron stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Hot streak: .568 OPS over last 15 days
93°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.231↓ vs season .25042 PA · 15d

OPS

.568

ISO

.051

RBI

K-BB

7-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ KC	1	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ LAA	2	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ LAA	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-08	@ LAA	2	0	1	1	0	—
06-07	vs ATH	3	0	0	1	0	—
06-06	vs ATH	4	1	1	0	2	.250
06-05	vs ATH	3	1	0	0	1	.333
06-04	vs PIT	1	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL16PA	.266	.340	23.1	30.8	31	11.5
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter12PA	.083	.166	0.0	8.3	50	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.266	.340	23.1	30.8	31	11.5	12	16
vs RHP	.048	.267	0.0	55.6	72	10.5	91	22

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.111	.195	0.0	11.1	44	0.0	91	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Meyers.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.5

Avg EV on HRs

106.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

393

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/1

Avg LA on HRs

26.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.340
Whiff%
11.5
HH%
30.8
BRL%
23.1
Pull%
31
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
.166
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
8.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50

Noah Cameron (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	29.4	12.1	53.7	52	.369	10.6
CHChangeup	21.5	4.5	24.4	64	.275	21.4
FCCutter	19.1	5.9	40.0	77	.360	19.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	17.0	9.1	26.3	86	.159	28.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.3	16
vs RHB	9.1	54.5	50	.340	10.6	56

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	67	.136	33.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.9	24.4	63	.290	19.4	58

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	37.5	81	.281	25.0	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.7	40.0	74	.381	17.2	43

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	23.5	82	.160	27.5	41

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .438). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP74PA	.090	.348	.672	5.2%	1
🐾vs LHP36PA	.117	.235	.402	11.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home53PA	.061	.306	.608	6.8%	0
🐾Away57PA	.138	.314	.560	7.3%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day46PA	.146	.366	.670	13.9%	2
🐾Night64PA	.068	.271	.521	2.0%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty36PA	.089	.265	.487	1
Runners On48PA	.072	.262	.533	0
RISP28PA	.087	.304	.625	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs37PA	.117	.382	.679	1
1 Out34PA	.157	.438	.762	1
2 Outs39PA	.030	.118	.323	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-024PA	.208	.500	.792	1
1-08PA	.125	.625	1.125	0
0-111PA	.091	.364	.636	0
2-03PA	—	—	—	0
0-28PA	—	—	—	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-217PA	—	.059	.118	0
2-219PA	—	—	.053	0
3-213PA	—	.429	1.121	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.