Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.7%

+1055

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Drohan (0.64 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #3Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.8%

+1041

RBI 1+

32.3%

+209

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)

115wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

93wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.8%

95% CI · 4.5–5.0%

+2007

Fair odds

1st AB

1.2%

Through AB2

2.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
Contact-15%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast-15%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0176 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-15% (×0.85)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+825

High

+4000

Low

+600

Med

+795

Avg

+991

+825

Low +600High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.7

Proj PA

245

HR / PA

.015

ISO

.108

wOBA

.295

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.9

Hard%

27.2

FB%

37.3

Pull%

47.1

Soft%

19.6

GB%

41.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

27.3

FB%

40.7

Pull%

46.6

Soft%

17.0

GB%

40.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

7.6

Hard%

27.1

FB%

35.7

Pull%

47.3

Soft%

20.7

GB%

41.1

Home

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

28.2

FB%

31.5

Pull%

50.4

Soft%

16.0

GB%

44.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

6.6

Hard%

26.2

FB%

42.4

Pull%

44.1

Soft%

22.8

GB%

37.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.64 HR/9
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.64 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.125↓ vs season .25045 PA · 15d

OPS

.450

ISO

.125

RBI

K-BB

9-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ MIL	3	0	0	1	2	—
06-16	@ MIL	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	vs DET	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	vs DET	3	1	1	0	2	1.000
06-10	vs NYY	3	0	1	0	0	—
06-09	vs NYY	3	0	0	1	1	—
06-08	vs NYY	4	2	1	0	0	.500
06-07	@ TEX	2	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball79PA	.182	.369	3.3	41.1	54	18.5
🐾SISinker51PA	.070	.326	2.4	36.6	52	11.3
🐾SLSlider28PA	.136	.344	5.9	23.5	59	29.6
🐾FCCutter17PA	.266	.348	10.5	25.0	74	15.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.445	.418	14.3	42.9	43	23.2	93	21
vs RHP	.075	.353	0.0	40.4	57	11.6	115	63

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.230	.352	7.7	46.2	54	4.3	93	17
vs RHP	—	.315	0.0	34.5	52	11.9	115	36

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.100	.328	16.7	33.3	33	30.0	93	12
vs RHP	.167	.361	0.0	18.2	73	25.0	115	16

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.260	0.0	12.5	63	16.7	93	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.636	.431	18.2	45.5	82	8.7	115	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

108

🐾vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rocchio.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Confirmed0 of 1 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.122

Barrel %

3.0

Hard Hit %

32.5

xwOBA

.311

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

2.30

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.1

Avg EV on HRs

102.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

383

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/5

Avg LA on HRs

29.0°

Brl / PA %

2.30

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
28
xwOBA
.369
Whiff%
18.5
HH%
41.1
BRL%
3.3
Pull%
54
SISinker
Use%
22
xwOBA
.326
Whiff%
11.3
HH%
36.6
BRL%
2.4
Pull%
52
SLSlider
Use%
20
xwOBA
.344
Whiff%
29.6
HH%
23.5
BRL%
5.9
Pull%
59

Shane Drohan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.8	12.0	50.0	44	.252	22.7
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.6	13.9	47.2	58	.344	25.0
SLSlider	19.6	3.0	25.8	70	.218	24.6
FCCutter	14.3	10.3	28.0	66	.352	8.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.4	38.5	54	.344	19.2	21
vs RHB	8.3	50.0	33	.183	23.5	28

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	42.9	79	.302	14.3	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.0	46	.370	33.3	25

SLSlider20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.5	27.3	64	.213	31.4	33
vs RHB	0.0	27.3	82	.230	12.5	16

FCCutter14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	16.7	83	.349	0.0	7
vs RHB	8.7	34.8	61	.353	9.1	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .340). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

FCCutter1

STSweeper1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP181PA	.102	.382	.749	2.1%	3
vs LHP84PA	.164	.397	.698	6.2%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home129PA	.143	.473	.867	2.8%	3
🐾Away136PA	.102	.305	.606	3.9%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day100PA	.089	.389	.743	3.5%	1
Night165PA	.143	.386	.727	3.2%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty92PA	.139	.465	.835	2
Runners On120PA	.101	.343	.682	2
RISP75PA	.087	.333	.703	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs80PA	.088	.294	.602	1
1 Out97PA	.114	.405	.797	2
2 Outs88PA	.157	.446	.776	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.