Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.6%

+766

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Baz (0.88 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

10.3%

+866

RBI 1+

33.8%

+196

Hits 1+

66.0%

-194

Hits 2+

23.9%

+318

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

18.5%

95% CI · 18.0–18.9%

+442

Fair odds

1st AB

5.1%

Through AB2

9.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Wind-1%
Lineup+3%
Contact+14%
Statcast+8%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0431 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+8% (×1.08)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+410

High

+1025

Low

+305

Med

+512

Avg

+603

🐾+410

Low +305🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1025

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+4602026-06-19vs BOSbook line

HomeBat 3rdoff RHPChangeup

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.3

Proj PA

250

HR / PA

.045

ISO

.210

wOBA

.354

wRC+

133

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.0

Hard%

36.5

FB%

37.6

Pull%

37.2

Soft%

16.5

GB%

41.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

21.2

Hard%

44.9

FB%

47.8

Pull%

31.9

Soft%

15.9

GB%

34.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.4

Hard%

33.5

FB%

34.0

Pull%

39.1

Soft%

16.8

GB%

44.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

19.1

Hard%

33.6

FB%

37.6

Pull%

32.8

Soft%

16.8

GB%

43.2

Away

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

39.0

FB%

37.6

Pull%

41.1

Soft%

16.3

GB%

40.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

T-Mobile Park suppresses HRs (92)
Shane Baz stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (46% of career HRs)
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200↓ vs season .26457 PA · 15d

OPS

.538

ISO

.040

RBI

K-BB

11-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs BAL	3	1	0	0	2	.667
06-16	vs BAL	4	1	1	0	0	.250
06-14	@ WSH	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	@ WSH	4	0	0	1	1	—
06-12	@ WSH	3	1	0	1	0	.333
06-11	@ BAL	4	2	1	1	0	.500
06-10	@ BAL	4	0	1	0	1	—
06-09	@ BAL	5	1	0	0	1	.200

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball82PA	.183	.330	11.5	48.0	37	27.5
🐾CUCurveball20PA	.222	.319	11.1	45.5	89	42.1
🐾FCCutter23PA	.048	.367	10.5	44.4	63	28.1
🐾CHChangeup31PA	.276	.400	8.7	52.2	61	30.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.219	.360	12.0	48.0	40	23.1	159	38
vs RHP	.214	.312	11.1	51.9	33	28.7	94	47

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.600	.669	25.0	75.0	100	42.9	159	6
vs RHP	—	.138	0.0	0.0	80	47.4	94	11

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.200	.508	25.0	50.0	75	23.5	159	5
vs RHP	—	.329	6.7	40.0	60	22.2	94	19

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.353	.491	13.3	60.0	60	27.8	159	18
vs RHP	.167	.290	0.0	37.5	63	31.2	94	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

108

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rodríguez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 26 of 57 career HRs (46%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.180

Barrel %

9.0

Hard Hit %

44.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.340

xBA

.264

Brl / PA %

6.40

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.4

Avg EV on HRs

107.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

416

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/9

Avg LA on HRs

28.9°

Brl / PA %

6.40

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Baz · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
34
xwOBA
.330
Whiff%
27.5
HH%
48.0
BRL%
11.5
Pull%
37
CUCurveball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.319
Whiff%
42.1
HH%
45.5
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
89
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
.367
Whiff%
28.1
HH%
44.4
BRL%
10.5
Pull%
63

Career vs Shane Baz

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Shane Baz arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.5	10.0	34.9	39	.364	15.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	—	45.2	—	.291	22.5
FCCutter	17.8	4.8	39.3	66	.352	14.8
CHChangeup	7.7	15.0	38.9	80	.474	4.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball34% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	31.5	43	.403	16.2	76
vs RHB	6.2	43.8	25	.257	14.0	25

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	30.0	90	.457	5.3	17
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.8	40.4	62	.327	21.1	65

CHChangeup8% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.0	35.0	80	.474	4.0	21
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .465). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 7

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SL🐾Slider3

CHChangeup2

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP246PA	.137	.379	.676	6.7%	6
vs LHP83PA	.311	.581	.930	15.4%	7

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home157PA	.221	.483	.795	8.7%	8
Away172PA	.141	.378	.686	9.4%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day127PA	.127	.339	.607	6.5%	4
Night202PA	.213	.486	.823	10.7%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty129PA	.193	.445	.755	4
Runners On138PA	.180	.459	.814	6
RISP65PA	.073	.309	.647	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs99PA	.105	.305	.537	3
1 Out117PA	.248	.514	.822	6
2 Outs113PA	.176	.454	.835	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.