Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.5%

+956

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Cade Cavalli (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 78

2+ RBI

9.2%

+986

RBI 1+

32.7%

+205

Hits 1+

66.5%

-198

Hits 2+

24.4%

+309

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.6%

95% CI · 13.2–14.0%

+637

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

5.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-22%
Temp+5%
vs SP-24%
Contact+6%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+9%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Cade Cavalli (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·90F game
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0440 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-24% (×0.76) · blended_proj

Park-22% (×0.78)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+9% (×1.09)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 2 HR

Now

+955

High

+985

Low

+295

Med

+505

Avg

+552

🐾🐾+955

Low +295🐾 HR money zoneHigh +985

WARMspot score 96

Just below his HR money zone (+485 to +795). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

17.5

Proj PA

396

HR / PA

.044

ISO

.209

wOBA

.357

wRC+

134

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.3

Hard%

37.7

FB%

38.6

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

17.7

GB%

42.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

45.0

FB%

46.7

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

18.3

GB%

36.7

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

35.0

FB%

35.6

Pull%

38.8

Soft%

17.5

GB%

45.0

Home

HR/FB

20.5

Hard%

34.3

FB%

37.1

Pull%

35.2

Soft%

18.1

GB%

44.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.9

Hard%

40.9

FB%

40.0

Pull%

39.1

Soft%

17.4

GB%

40.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Nationals Park suppresses HRs (78)
Cade Cavalli stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (46% of career HRs)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (78)
High barrels/PA (6.5%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.246↓ vs season .26764 PA · 15d

OPS

.769

ISO

.210

RBI

K-BB

12-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ WSH	3	1	0	1	0	.333
06-11	@ BAL	4	2	1	1	0	.500
06-10	@ BAL	4	0	1	0	1	—
06-09	@ BAL	5	1	0	0	1	.200
06-08	@ BAL	3	0	0	1	0	—
06-07	@ DET	4	1	0	1	1	.250
06-06	@ DET	5	1	0	0	1	.200
06-05	@ DET	4	2	0	1	1	.750

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR45PA	.225	.320	12.0	52.0	32	29.6
🐾CUCurveballvR9PA	—	.168	0.0	—	100	43.8
🐾SISinkervR75PA	.140	.354	9.2	44.6	52	6.9
🐾STSweepervR23PA	.091	.200	0.0	33.3	75	32.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.226	.348	8.3	45.8	42	23.4	161	37
vs RHPTONIGHT	.225	.320	12.0	52.0	32	29.6	100	45

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.600	.669	25.0	75.0	100	42.9	161	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.168	0.0	0.0	100	43.8	100	9

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.477	20.0	80.0	20	12.5	161	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.140	.354	9.2	44.6	52	6.9	100	75

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.091	.200	0.0	33.3	75	32.6	100	23

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

111

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rodríguez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 26 of 57 career HRs (46%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.188

Barrel %

9.1

Hard Hit %

45.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.343

xBA

.267

Brl / PA %

6.50

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.4

Avg EV on HRs

107.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

416

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/9

Avg LA on HRs

28.9°

Brl / PA %

6.50

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Cade Cavalli · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.320
Whiff%
29.6
HH%
52.0
BRL%
12.0
Pull%
32
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.168
Whiff%
43.8
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.354
Whiff%
6.9
HH%
44.6
BRL%
9.2
Pull%
52

Cade Cavalli (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	34.6	14.3	41.3	48	.375	18.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	29.5	—	31.9	—	.268	28.4
SISinker	15.2	4.9	52.6	76	.345	26.9
STSweeper	11.6	4.3	35.0	52	.320	15.2

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.0	33.3	53	.357	16.4	78
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	25.0	54.2	33	.410	20.7	43

SISinker15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	70	.501	25.0	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	6.5	51.6	77	.285	25.0	41

STSweeper12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	—	—	—	.271	25.0	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	52	.337	10.0	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .465). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 7

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SL🐾Slider3

CHChangeup2

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP232PA	.141	.390	.696	7.3%	6
vs LHP81PA	.315	.589	.935	14.1%	7

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home150PA	.225	.486	.799	9.1%	8
🐾Away163PA	.149	.399	.718	9.2%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day118PA	.137	.364	.644	5.7%	4
Night195PA	.216	.489	.827	11.3%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty123PA	.194	.451	.768	4
Runners On131PA	.190	.474	.833	6
RISP61PA	.077	.308	.636	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs95PA	.110	.319	.561	3
1 Out113PA	.247	.514	.824	6
2 Outs105PA	.189	.478	.868	4

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-035PA	.030	.182	.382	0
1-027PA	.186	.556	.926	1
0-139PA	.211	.500	.782	2
2-04PA	—	.500	1.000	0
0-223PA	.174	.435	.696	1
3-06PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-257PA	.105	.298	.491	1
2-238PA	.026	.237	.447	0
3-247PA	.265	.441	.845	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.