Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.5%

+1230

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ranger Suarez (LHP) (0.55 HR/9) · park 85

2+ RBI

8.1%

+1129

RBI 1+

31.8%

+215

Hits 1+

66.2%

-196

Hits 2+

24.1%

+315

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.1%

95% CI · 4.9–5.3%

+1861

Fair odds

1st AB

1.1%

Through AB2

2.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
Temp+5%
vs SP-31%
Contact-1%
SP Contact-16%
Statcast-5%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ranger Suarez (LHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·90F game

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0213 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-31% (×0.69) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-5% (×0.95)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games

Now

+1230

High

+1075

Low

+575

Med

+745

Avg

+775

+1230

Low +575High +1075

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.3

Proj PA

283

HR / PA

.022

ISO

.133

wOBA

.292

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.0

Hard%

33.8

FB%

34.7

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

15.5

GB%

43.8

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

22.2

FB%

44.4

Pull%

37.0

Soft%

22.2

GB%

29.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

7.9

Hard%

36.4

FB%

32.5

Pull%

38.8

Soft%

14.1

GB%

47.0

Home

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

33.9

FB%

30.5

Pull%

35.6

Soft%

11.9

GB%

47.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

33.0

FB%

36.8

Pull%

40.7

Soft%

17.6

GB%

42.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Fenway Park suppresses HRs (85)
Ranger Suarez stingy: only 0.55 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (85)
High barrels/PA (4.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.55 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.306↑ vs season .26553 PA · 15d

OPS

.766

ISO

.102

RBI

K-BB

13-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ BOS	4	0	0	0	2	—
06-11	@ KC	4	2	0	0	0	.500
06-10	@ KC	4	1	0	0	3	.250
06-09	@ KC	4	1	0	0	1	.500
06-07	vs CLE	5	4	3	0	1	1.000
06-06	vs CLE	3	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	vs CLE	2	0	0	1	0	—
06-03	@ STL	4	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervL6PA	—	.447	0.0	60.0	40	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL15PA	—	.238	0.0	25.0	50	20.0
🐾FCCutter18PA	—	.322	14.3	38.5	50	23.1
🐾CHChangeupvL8PA	.285	.359	0.0	—	71	10.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.447	0.0	60.0	40	0.0	149	6
vs RHP	.108	.393	6.2	37.5	44	12.0	119	42

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.238	0.0	25.0	50	20.0	149	15
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.263	.304	19.2	50.0	50	28.1	119	41

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.067	.278	15.4	46.2	46	19.0	119	16

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.285	.359	0.0	0.0	71	10.5	149	8
vs RHP	.077	.353	0.0	15.4	85	0.0	119	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Duran.

Season Statcast

ISO

.155

Barrel %

6.1

Hard Hit %

37.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.313

xBA

.265

Brl / PA %

4.20

Max EV (mph)

111.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.7

Avg EV on HRs

100.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

381

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

32.8°

Brl / PA %

4.20

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ranger Suarez · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

SISinkervs LHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.447
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
60.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
40
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.238
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
20
xwOBA
.322
Whiff%
23.1
HH%
38.5
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
50

Career vs Ranger Suarez (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Ranger Suarez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	26.9	3.1	35.6	47	.320	30.4
FF4-Seam Fastball	21.1	17.9	33.3	50	.341	17.8
FCCutter	19.7	6.1	31.8	71	.331	16.7
CHChangeup	15.3	5.9	31.3	68	.296	12.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.0	24.0	60	.263	36.4	34
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	46.2	39	.359	28.9	58

FF4-Seam Fastball21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	29	.464	28.6	14
vs RHB	19.0	28.6	57	.277	12.9	27

FCCutter20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.3	27.7	70	.305	16.2	56

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	6.5	29.0	65	.293	15.1	41

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .380). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

STSweeper1

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP176PA	.154	.442	.768	8.5%	3
🐾vs LHP44PA	.162	.459	.868	3.4%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home85PA	.127	.418	.759	4.6%	1
🐾Away135PA	.174	.463	.806	9.7%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day68PA	.226	.597	1.023	8.0%	2
Night152PA	.123	.377	.682	7.4%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty77PA	.143	.357	.643	2
Runners On98PA	.191	.584	1.007	1
RISP54PA	.163	.571	.997	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs78PA	.127	.366	.674	1
1 Out90PA	.210	.494	.820	3
2 Outs52PA	.104	.479	.902	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-033PA	.243	.576	.909	1
1-010PA	.200	.600	1.000	0
0-124PA	.218	.609	.984	1
0-225PA	.160	.320	.480	1
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-240PA	.026	.205	.380	0
2-231PA	.167	.400	.658	0
3-229PA	.222	.500	1.052	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.