Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.2%

+882

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joe Ryan (0.88 HR/9) · park 91

Batting #5Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.6%

+942

RBI 1+

33.1%

+202

Hits 1+

64.8%

-185

Hits 2+

22.7%

+341

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.3%

95% CI · 6.0–6.6%

+1489

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact-15%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast-7%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0223 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-9% (×0.91)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-15% (×0.85)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-7% (×0.93)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+825

High

+1215

Low

+475

Med

+738

Avg

+791

+825

Low +475High +1215

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.6

Proj PA

223

HR / PA

.025

ISO

.143

wOBA

.297

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

34.1

FB%

35.1

Pull%

38.1

Soft%

15.9

GB%

45.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

31.9

FB%

36.2

Pull%

36.2

Soft%

14.9

GB%

40.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.1

Hard%

34.6

FB%

34.9

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

16.2

GB%

46.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

17.6

Hard%

35.7

FB%

34.7

Pull%

35.7

Soft%

13.3

GB%

46.9

Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

32.8

FB%

35.5

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

18.0

GB%

44.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
Joe Ryan stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
94°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (91)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.209↓ vs season .25746 PA · 15d

OPS

.517

ISO

.047

RBI

K-BB

15-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs MIN	3	0	1	1	1	—
06-14	@ BOS	5	0	0	0	3	—
06-13	@ BOS	5	1	0	0	3	.200
06-12	@ BOS	4	0	0	0	2	—
06-11	@ KC	4	2	0	0	0	.500
06-10	@ KC	4	1	0	0	3	.250
06-09	@ KC	4	1	0	0	1	.500
06-07	vs CLE	5	4	3	0	1	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball57PA	.118	.271	13.9	40.6	50	35.9
🐾STSweeper29PA	.334	.344	13.6	65.0	50	31.3
🐾CUCurveball17PA	.062	.223	0.0	18.2	91	34.8
🐾SISinker50PA	.091	.388	5.1	41.0	46	15.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.199	0.0	22.2	56	18.4	124	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.302	18.5	48.1	48	30.4	106	44

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.571	.286	20.0	40.0	40	12.5	124	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.227	.362	11.8	70.6	53	28.6	106	24

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.383	0.0	25.0	100	16.7	124	5
vs RHP	.111	.162	0.0	14.3	86	33.3	106	9

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.447	0.0	60.0	40	0.0	124	6
vs RHP	.100	.379	5.9	38.2	47	12.0	106	45

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Duran.

Season Statcast

ISO

.146

Barrel %

5.8

Hard Hit %

37.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.304

xBA

.257

Brl / PA %

3.80

Max EV (mph)

111.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.7

Avg EV on HRs

100.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

381

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

32.8°

Brl / PA %

3.80

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joe Ryan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
44
xwOBA
.271
Whiff%
35.9
HH%
40.6
BRL%
13.9
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 57 PA this season.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.344
Whiff%
31.3
HH%
65.0
BRL%
13.6
Pull%
50
CUCurveball
Use%
12
xwOBA
.223
Whiff%
34.8
HH%
18.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
91
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 17 PA this season.

Career vs Joe Ryan

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

.500

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Joe Ryan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.1	12.6	48.5	56	.310	18.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.0	10.0	28.6	77	.234	32.1
CUCurveball	12.2	—	24.0	—	.219	21.3
SISinker	11.8	10.0	50.0	45	.301	17.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	50.7	57	.308	23.4	105
vs RHB	11.1	47.2	53	.311	13.4	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	75	.331	33.3	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	22.2	78	.180	30.2	33

SISinker12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	58	.301	21.1	20
vs RHB	14.3	64.3	39	.304	12.9	32

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .380). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

STSweeper1

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP183PA	.148	.426	.745	8.2%	3
vs LHP51PA	.136	.409	.782	3.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home89PA	.122	.402	.739	4.5%	1
Away145PA	.160	.435	.761	9.1%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day73PA	.209	.567	.978	7.7%	2
Night161PA	.116	.356	.650	7.0%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty79PA	.139	.347	.625	2
Runners On107PA	.174	.541	.937	1
RISP59PA	.149	.519	.909	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs83PA	.120	.360	.673	1
1 Out96PA	.196	.460	.765	3
2 Outs55PA	.098	.451	.851	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.