Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.8%

+823

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Yesavage (0.57 HR/9) · park 102

Batting #3Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.0%

+904

RBI 1+

33.4%

+199

Hits 1+

65.5%

-190

Hits 2+

23.4%

+328

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.9%

95% CI · 14.5–15.3%

+571

Fair odds

1st AB

3.6%

Through AB2

6.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+2%
Wind+14%
vs SP-17%
Contact-8%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+16%
SP Statcast-7%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·19 mph wind out to OF
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0393 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-17% (×0.83) · blended_proj

Park+2% (×1.02)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+16% (×1.16)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+370

High

+4000

Low

+300

Med

+782

Avg

+876

+370

Low +300High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.6

Proj PA

253

HR / PA

.046

ISO

.220

wOBA

.348

wRC+

119

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.5

Hard%

38.3

FB%

47.1

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

13.7

GB%

33.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

33.0

FB%

37.6

Pull%

36.2

Soft%

14.9

GB%

41.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.4

Hard%

41.0

FB%

51.9

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

13.1

GB%

29.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

4.9

Hard%

33.8

FB%

47.3

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

11.5

GB%

37.2

Away

HR/FB

11.6

Hard%

42.2

FB%

46.9

Pull%

34.0

Soft%

15.6

GB%

30.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Trey Yesavage stingy: only 0.57 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (35% of career HRs)
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (7.9%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.57 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.271↑ vs season .26152 PA · 15d

OPS

.787

ISO

.208

RBI

K-BB

12-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs TOR	5	2	0	0	0	1	.600
06-16	vs TOR	3	0	0	0	2	2	—
06-14	vs TEX	4	1	0	1	0	0	.250
06-13	vs TEX	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-12	vs TEX	4	3	1	3	0	0	2.000
💣 421ft · 106.1 EV · 4-Seamer
06-10	@ TB	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-09	@ TB	4	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-08	@ TB	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball84PA	.205	.298	13.0	51.0	39	24.6
🐾FSSplit-Finger12PA	.334	.259	9.1	27.3	73	8.0
🐾SLSlider43PA	.219	.324	16.1	40.0	58	32.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.251	0.0	25.0	25	34.2	158	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.281	.311	15.2	54.3	41	17.2	89	73

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.363	.270	10.0	30.0	70	8.3	89	11

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.150	.349	13.3	40.0	53	40.0	158	21
vs RHP	.261	.303	18.8	43.8	63	27.1	89	24

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

102

vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Abreu.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Confirmed3 of 23 HRs · 13%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 8 of 23 career HRs (35%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.154

Barrel %

11.1

Hard Hit %

41.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.336

xBA

.261

Brl / PA %

7.90

Max EV (mph)

113.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.1

Avg EV on HRs

104.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

392

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/7

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

7.90

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Yesavage · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
47
xwOBA
.298
Whiff%
24.6
HH%
51.0
BRL%
13.0
Pull%
39
FSSplit-Finger
Use%
32
xwOBA
.259
Whiff%
8.0
HH%
27.3
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
73
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.324
Whiff%
32.5
HH%
40.0
BRL%
16.1
Pull%
58

Career vs Trey Yesavage

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Trey Yesavage arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	47.0	3.2	35.5	40	.280	21.7
FSSplit-Finger	31.6	5.6	22.2	69	.274	15.2
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.4	7.4	44.4	82	.286	24.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball47% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	2.9	42.9	49	.319	30.3	54
vs RHB	3.7	25.9	30	.234	16.9	44

FSSplit-Finger32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.2	21.9	69	.292	16.9	49
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	75	.183	11.8	9

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	45.5	73	.262	15.4	14
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	43.8	88	.299	28.1	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .549). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SLSlider2

FSSplitter1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 35 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP214PA	.171	.404	.703	13.5%	7
vs LHP89PA	.112	.500	.932	7.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home154PA	.141	.422	.768	8.7%	3
Away149PA	.167	.442	.771	14.4%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day121PA	.168	.467	.842	13.8%	3
Night182PA	.145	.410	.723	9.8%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty96PA	.236	.584	.980	5
Runners On155PA	.118	.368	.686	2
RISP79PA	.136	.394	.727	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs84PA	.118	.342	.631	2
1 Out101PA	.148	.443	.799	3
2 Outs118PA	.183	.486	.842	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.