Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.8%

+680

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Randy Vásquez (RHP) (1.30 HR/9) · park 88

2+ RBI

11.1%

+805

RBI 1+

34.4%

+191

Hits 1+

72.6%

-265

Hits 2+

31.8%

+214

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.3%

95% CI · 8.0–8.6%

+1107

Fair odds

1st AB

2.2%

Through AB2

4.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-12%
Temp+5%
vs SP+10%
Contact-10%
SP Contact+9%
Statcast-3%
SP Statcast+8%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

·90F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0214 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj

Park-12% (×0.88)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+8% (×1.08)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games · 1 HR

Now

+680

High

+1415

Low

+635

Med

+910

Avg

+930

🐾+680

Low +635🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1415

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.7

Proj PA

199

HR / PA

.024

ISO

.136

wOBA

.310

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.4

Hard%

41.3

FB%

26.0

Pull%

31.2

Soft%

7.3

GB%

45.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

34.2

FB%

40.5

Pull%

34.2

Soft%

5.3

GB%

35.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

45.1

FB%

17.9

Pull%

29.6

Soft%

8.5

GB%

50.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

40.0

FB%

28.8

Pull%

30.9

Soft%

3.6

GB%

40.4

Away

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

42.6

FB%

23.1

Pull%

31.5

Soft%

11.1

GB%

50.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Oriole Park at Camden Yards suppresses HRs (88)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (88)
High barrels/PA (4.3%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (13.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.391↑ vs season .30829 PA · 15d

OPS

1.116

ISO

.261

RBI

K-BB

3-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-11	vs SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs SEA	3	1	0	1	0	0	.667
06-09	vs SEA	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	vs SEA	3	2	0	1	0	0	.667
06-07	@ TOR	4	2	0	1	0	1	1.000
06-06	@ TOR	3	1	1	1	1	0	1.333
💣 386ft · 107.0 EV · Sweeper
06-05	@ TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-03	@ BOS	2	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR39PA	.176	.447	19.0	61.9	33	33.3
🐾FCCutter10PA	.200	.166	0.0	42.9	43	19.0
🐾SISinkervR32PA	.103	.395	3.7	55.6	48	7.0
🐾CUCurveballvR7PA	—	.229	0.0	40.0	80	38.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.154	.163	0.0	36.4	18	26.8	92	16
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.176	.447	19.0	61.9	33	33.3	119	39

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.166	.166	0.0	40.0	40	13.3	92	6
vs RHP	no sample

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.482	0.0	83.3	33	6.7	92	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.103	.395	3.7	55.6	48	7.0	119	32

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.524	0.0	40.0	40	12.5	92	5
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.229	0.0	40.0	80	38.5	119	7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

136

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Alexander.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 2 of 4 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.118

Barrel %

6.4

Hard Hit %

48.6

xwOBA

.356

xBA

.308

Brl / PA %

4.30

Max EV (mph)

112.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

112.9

Avg EV on HRs

—

Avg HR Distance (ft)

—

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

—

Crushed (105+ mph)

—

Avg LA on HRs

—

Brl / PA %

4.30

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Randy Vásquez · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.447
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
61.9
BRL%
19.0
Pull%
33
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCutter
Use%
24
xwOBA
.166
Whiff%
19.0
HH%
42.9
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
43
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.395
Whiff%
7.0
HH%
55.6
BRL%
3.7
Pull%
48
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Randy Vásquez (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.1	15.4	45.7	44	.341	14.3
FCCutter	23.7	14.3	42.2	61	.424	13.0
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.5	16.7	54.5	60	.450	26.5
CUCurveball	11.1	3.8	50.0	73	.356	13.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.7	47.3	51	.349	14.6	72
vs RHB	21.7	47.8	26	.328	15.4	36

FCCutter24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.7	33.3	70	.316	14.3	35
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	27.3	54.5	50	.560	9.5	27

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.0	40.0	70	.438	31.2	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.8	56.2	56	.460	20.0	39

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	52.4	67	.330	19.4	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	100	.473	11.1	8

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .463). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP106PA	.117	.415	.768	7.9%	1
vs LHP56PA	.120	.380	.701	2.4%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home85PA	.110	.425	.808	8.8%	1
Away77PA	.126	.380	.679	3.3%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day79PA	.100	.400	.772	4.6%	1
Night83PA	.135	.405	.718	7.7%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty58PA	.151	.377	.658	1
Runners On71PA	.148	.459	.827	1
RISP46PA	.158	.500	.895	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs55PA	—	.333	.729	0
1 Out52PA	.217	.543	.916	2
2 Outs55PA	.140	.340	.599	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.040	.280	.530	0
1-016PA	.500	1.062	1.625	2
0-117PA	.066	.333	.627	0
2-04PA	—	.333	.833	0
0-215PA	—	—	—	0
3-03PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-224PA	.044	.261	.511	0
2-224PA	.041	.333	.625	0
3-225PA	.055	.333	.813	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.