Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.5%

+951

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Bryan Woo (0.99 HR/9) · park 92

Batting #8Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.2%

+983

RBI 1+

32.8%

+205

Hits 1+

73.3%

-275

Hits 2+

32.7%

+206

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.2%

95% CI · 5.9–6.5%

+1517

Fair odds

1st AB

1.5%

Through AB2

3.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Wind-1%
vs SP-7%
Contact-9%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast-2%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0217 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-7% (×0.93) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-2% (×0.98)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+850

High

+2000

Low

+535

Med

+1008

Avg

+970

+850

Low +535High +2000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.3

Proj PA

202

HR / PA

.026

ISO

.144

wOBA

.315

wRC+

101

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

39.4

FB%

26.7

Pull%

34.7

Soft%

7.6

GB%

46.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

35.1

FB%

32.1

Pull%

36.8

Soft%

8.8

GB%

42.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.5

Hard%

41.6

FB%

23.9

Pull%

33.6

Soft%

7.1

GB%

48.6

Home

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

39.3

FB%

27.9

Pull%

34.8

Soft%

4.5

GB%

40.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

39.5

FB%

25.3

Pull%

34.6

Soft%

11.1

GB%

53.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

T-Mobile Park suppresses HRs (92)
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (SI, ST)
Hot streak: 1.229 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (4.5%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.467↑ vs season .31335 PA · 15d

OPS

1.229

ISO

.233

RBI

K-BB

4-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ SEA	3	3	0	1	0	1.000
06-16	@ SEA	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	vs SD	4	2	0	0	1	.750
06-13	vs SD	4	3	0	0	0	.750
06-11	vs SEA	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs SEA	3	1	1	0	0	.667
06-09	vs SEA	1	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	vs SEA	3	2	1	0	0	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball52PA	.182	.378	15.2	54.8	30	33.1
🐾SISinker46PA	.073	.405	2.6	53.8	46	10.0
🐾STSweeper14PA	.230	.432	8.3	30.0	83	30.4
🐾SLSlider20PA	.118	.373	7.7	54.5	46	39.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.154	.163	0.0	36.4	18	26.8	91	16
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.172	.462	22.7	63.6	36	31.2	136	40

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.482	0.0	83.3	33	6.7	91	7
vs RHP	.086	.391	3.0	48.5	49	6.0	136	39

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.466	33.3	66.7	67	50.0	91	6
vs RHP	—	.416	0.0	11.1	89	26.3	136	11

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.305	0.0	50.0	100	55.6	91	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.125	.376	9.1	45.5	36	34.1	136	17

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

108

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Alexander.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #8Confirmed0 of 4 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 2 of 4 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.114

Barrel %

6.6

Hard Hit %

47.1

xwOBA

.359

xBA

.313

Brl / PA %

4.50

Max EV (mph)

112.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

112.9

Avg EV on HRs

—

Avg HR Distance (ft)

—

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

—

Crushed (105+ mph)

—

Avg LA on HRs

—

Brl / PA %

4.50

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Bryan Woo · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
49
xwOBA
.378
Whiff%
33.1
HH%
54.8
BRL%
15.2
Pull%
30
SISinker
Use%
18
xwOBA
.405
Whiff%
10.0
HH%
53.8
BRL%
2.6
Pull%
46
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.432
Whiff%
30.4
HH%
30.0
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
83
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Bryan Woo arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	48.9	7.1	42.5	38	.290	17.6
SISinker	18.1	8.5	51.8	56	.345	20.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	13.9	7.7	38.2	69	.257	24.6
SLSlider	12.9	9.1	50.0	59	.254	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball49% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.8	45.5	42	.339	16.0	104
vs RHB	5.6	36.1	31	.196	20.5	53

SISinker18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	56.2	56	.397	9.5	20
vs RHB	4.7	51.2	56	.329	25.7	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	33.3	83	.293	23.1	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	3.7	33.3	63	.240	27.1	40

SLSlider13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	50.0	56	.234	18.9	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	75	.405	0.0	4

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .463). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP121PA	.111	.444	.829	8.0%	1
vs LHP56PA	.120	.380	.701	2.4%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home93PA	.111	.457	.861	7.8%	1
🐾Away84PA	.117	.390	.711	4.6%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day87PA	.103	.436	.831	4.2%	1
Night90PA	.125	.413	.746	8.8%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty67PA	.131	.393	.711	1
Runners On72PA	.145	.468	.845	1
RISP46PA	.158	.500	.895	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs62PA	.018	.382	.799	0
1 Out56PA	.200	.520	.884	2
2 Outs59PA	.132	.377	.687	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.