Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

21.3%

+369

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Mike Burrows (RHP) (2.09 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

15.7%

+536

RBI 1+

38.6%

+159

Hits 1+

71.8%

-255

Hits 2+

30.7%

+226

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

26.0%

95% CI · 25.5–26.5%

+285

Fair odds

1st AB

7.9%

Through AB2

15.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind+3%
Temp+5%
vs SP+27%
Contact+6%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast+24%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Mike Burrows (RHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·10 mph wind out to OF
·94F game
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0423 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind+3% (×1.03)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 1 HR

Now

+370

High

+805

Low

+305

Med

+495

Avg

+511

🐾+370

Low +305🐾 HR money zoneHigh +805

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

19.9

Proj PA

392

HR / PA

.051

ISO

.261

wOBA

.395

wRC+

150

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

40.2

FB%

43.8

Pull%

31.5

Soft%

14.6

GB%

34.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

47.3

FB%

41.8

Pull%

34.5

Soft%

9.1

GB%

43.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

11.0

Hard%

37.8

FB%

44.5

Pull%

30.5

Soft%

16.5

GB%

31.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

11.3

Hard%

42.4

FB%

44.9

Pull%

28.8

Soft%

16.1

GB%

33.9

Away

HR/FB

7.0

Hard%

37.6

FB%

42.6

Pull%

34.7

Soft%

12.9

GB%

34.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Mike Burrows is leaky — 2.09 HR/9 allowed
51.6% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, CH)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (100% of career HRs)
95°F — ball flies in warm air
Elite barrel% (12.8)
High barrels/PA (9.1%)
Pitcher HR-prone (2.09 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.232↓ vs season .30266 PA · 15d

OPS

.634

ISO

.054

RBI

K-BB

12-9

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs HOU	4	1	1	1	0	.250
06-11	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-10	vs TEX	5	2	0	0	1	.400
06-09	vs TEX	3	0	0	1	0	—
06-07	@ MIN	4	0	0	0	3	—
06-06	@ MIN	5	2	1	0	1	.400
06-05	@ MIN	3	1	0	1	1	.667
06-04	@ MIN	5	1	0	1	2	.200

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR61PA	.127	.344	6.7	63.3	30	18.5
🐾CHChangeupvR11PA	.334	.480	12.5	12.5	63	18.8
🐾SLSlidervR41PA	.054	.334	12.0	40.0	52	38.4
🐾CUCurveballvR13PA	.231	.413	8.3	41.7	73	5.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.263	.553	23.5	58.8	29	10.6	144	22
vs RHPTONIGHT	.127	.344	6.7	63.3	30	18.5	112	61

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.278	.425	17.6	58.8	71	16.7	144	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.334	.480	12.5	12.5	63	18.8	112	11

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.383	14.3	71.4	71	22.2	144	8
vs RHPTONIGHT	.054	.334	12.0	40.0	52	38.4	112	41

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.227	0.0	66.7	67	22.2	144	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.231	.413	8.3	41.7	73	5.9	112	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jr..

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 58 of 58 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.169

Barrel %

12.8

Hard Hit %

51.6

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.384

xBA

.302

Brl / PA %

9.10

Max EV (mph)

115.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.4

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

349

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/7

Avg LA on HRs

22.6°

Brl / PA %

9.10

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Mike Burrows · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.344
Whiff%
18.5
HH%
63.3
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
30
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.480
Whiff%
18.8
HH%
12.5
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
63
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.334
Whiff%
38.4
HH%
40.0
BRL%
12.0
Pull%
52

Mike Burrows (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.8	16.7	50.8	52	.434	14.3
CHChangeup	27.5	3.2	27.1	76	.281	18.6
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	15.3	6.1	31.1	59	.301	21.8
CUCurveball	14.6	24.0	45.5	68	.319	17.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	18.0	56.0	50	.441	13.0	66
vs RHB	12.5	50.0	56	.416	14.7	23

CHChangeup28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	3.6	23.6	75	.300	10.8	71
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	57.1	86	.216	34.3	22

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	38.1	67	.411	24.2	32
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	54	.191	13.3	32

CUCurveball15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	26.7	46.7	73	.391	15.4	20
vs RHB	20.0	30.0	60	.237	18.4	18

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .523). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter2

CH🐾Changeup2

STSweeper1

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP243PA	.154	.419	.761	11.4%	8
vs LHP69PA	.209	.532	.923	16.9%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home159PA	.203	.483	.823	13.4%	6
Away153PA	.127	.403	.769	12.3%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day120PA	.160	.462	.845	14.1%	3
🐾Night192PA	.170	.433	.766	12.1%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty135PA	.106	.309	.583	2
Runners On130PA	.175	.459	.844	4
RISP67PA	.182	.473	.861	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs87PA	.311	.740	1.211	5
1 Out134PA	.090	.264	.518	2
2 Outs91PA	.139	.430	.815	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-042PA	.215	.548	.881	1
1-018PA	.667	1.167	1.667	3
0-129PA	.138	.379	.621	1
2-05PA	—	.200	.400	0
0-236PA	.027	.194	.361	0
3-08PA	—	—	.875	0
1-247PA	.042	.170	.298	0
2-247PA	.043	.217	.388	0
3-227PA	.059	.471	1.100	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.