Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

21.1%

+374

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (1.79 HR/9) · park 97

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

15.6%

+541

RBI 1+

38.6%

+159

Hits 1+

72.8%

-267

Hits 2+

32.0%

+213

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

20.6%

95% CI · 20.2–21.1%

+384

Fair odds

1st AB

5.7%

Through AB2

11.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind-2%
vs SP+4%
Lineup+3%
Contact+5%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast+20%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0416 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+4% (×1.04) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+20% (×1.20)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+400

High

+4000

Low

+315

Med

+495

Avg

+730

+400

Low +315High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.3

Proj PA

277

HR / PA

.055

ISO

.275

wOBA

.401

wRC+

156

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

43.9

FB%

42.9

Pull%

33.0

Soft%

14.3

GB%

35.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

52.4

FB%

41.7

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

7.1

GB%

41.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.0

Hard%

40.5

FB%

43.3

Pull%

32.9

Soft%

17.1

GB%

32.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

48.1

FB%

42.9

Pull%

32.5

Soft%

14.9

GB%

35.7

Away

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

39.3

FB%

42.9

Pull%

33.6

Soft%

13.6

GB%

34.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Matthew Liberatore is leaky — 1.79 HR/9 allowed
52.1% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (100% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (8.4%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.79 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.2% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.316↑ vs season .30965 PA · 15d

OPS

.768

ISO

.052

RBI

K-BB

10-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ WSH	4	1	1	1	0	.250
06-16	@ WSH	4	3	1	1	0	.750
06-15	@ WSH	3	0	0	1	1	—
06-14	vs HOU	4	2	0	0	0	.500
06-13	vs HOU	5	3	0	0	0	1.000
06-12	vs HOU	4	1	1	1	0	.250
06-11	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-10	vs TEX	5	2	0	0	1	.400

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball87PA	.162	.402	12.0	61.2	28	22.4
🐾SLSlider54PA	.100	.354	10.3	48.7	51	35.2
🐾CUCurveball25PA	.120	.345	4.5	43.5	67	11.4
🐾CHChangeup26PA	.333	.444	15.4	39.1	65	14.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.238	.543	22.2	61.1	28	12.2	150	24
vs RHP	.123	.351	6.2	62.5	28	18.2	116	65

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.200	.353	11.1	66.7	56	18.2	150	10
vs RHP	.072	.331	10.0	43.3	50	35.7	116	46

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.352	0.0	62.5	63	18.2	150	9
vs RHP	.200	.390	7.1	42.9	69	10.0	116	15

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.263	.425	16.7	55.6	67	15.8	150	19
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.334	.480	12.5	12.5	63	18.8	116	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jr..

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected58 of 58 HRs · 100%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 58 of 58 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.161

Barrel %

11.6

Hard Hit %

52.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.387

xBA

.309

Brl / PA %

8.40

Max EV (mph)

115.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.4

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

349

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/7

Avg LA on HRs

22.6°

Brl / PA %

8.40

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.402
Whiff%
22.4
HH%
61.2
BRL%
12.0
Pull%
28
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.354
Whiff%
35.2
HH%
48.7
BRL%
10.3
Pull%
51
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
.345
Whiff%
11.4
HH%
43.5
BRL%
4.5
Pull%
67

Career vs Matthew Liberatore

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Matthew Liberatore arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.4	12.5	47.4	48	.449	10.4
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	14.9	43.5	62	.293	27.7
CUCurveball	16.4	13.3	35.7	60	.208	19.8
CHChangeup	15.4	4.4	32.6	67	.383	9.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	11.8	47.1	49	.421	10.2	89

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	25.6	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	15.4	38.5	62	.209	20.8	31

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.4	31.1	67	.383	13.6	53

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .523). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter2

CH🐾Changeup2

STSweeper1

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP259PA	.153	.428	.779	10.4%	8
vs LHP76PA	.191	.529	.937	15.2%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home168PA	.204	.500	.851	12.1%	6
Away167PA	.117	.400	.777	11.2%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day129PA	.149	.456	.844	12.9%	3
🐾Night206PA	.169	.448	.798	11.0%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty146PA	.106	.318	.606	2
Runners On141PA	.168	.471	.868	4
RISP75PA	.178	.484	.884	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs91PA	.300	.725	1.198	5
1 Out146PA	.099	.311	.599	2
2 Outs98PA	.130	.412	.790	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.