Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.4%

+774

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sonny Gray (0.87 HR/9) · park 102

Batting #8Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.3%

+872

RBI 1+

33.7%

+197

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)

127wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

107wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.3%

95% CI · 13.9–14.7%

+598

Fair odds

1st AB

3.5%

Through AB2

6.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+2%
Wind+14%
vs SP-10%
Contact+6%
SP Contact-5%
Statcast+9%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·19 mph wind out to OF
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0306 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+2% (×1.02)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+9% (×1.09)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-5% (×0.95)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+680

High

+2605

Low

+415

Med

+842

Avg

+1094

+680

Low +415High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.7

Proj PA

117

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.149

wOBA

.290

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.9

Hard%

34.7

FB%

40.9

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

16.1

GB%

36.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

41.9

FB%

38.7

Pull%

32.3

Soft%

9.7

GB%

41.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

32.2

FB%

41.7

Pull%

46.0

Soft%

18.4

GB%

34.5

Home

HR/FB

20.8

Hard%

36.8

FB%

42.1

Pull%

47.4

Soft%

15.8

GB%

35.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

32.8

FB%

39.7

Pull%

37.7

Soft%

16.4

GB%

37.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Sonny Gray stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.360↑ vs season .25029 PA · 15d

OPS

1.214

ISO

.440

RBI

K-BB

6-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	vs NYY	3	1	0	0	1	2	.333
06-10	vs PHI	4	1	0	1	0	2	.250
06-09	vs PHI	4	1	0	1	0	0	.250
06-08	vs PHI	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	vs BAL	3	1	1	2	1	1	1.333
💣 388ft · 103.0 EV · Changeup
06-06	vs BAL	3	3	0	1	0	0	1.667
06-05	vs BAL	3	1	1	2	0	0	1.333
💣 417ft · 106.2 EV · Slider
06-03	@ ATL	3	1	1	1	1	1	1.333
💣 399ft · 104.4 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball55PA	.107	.319	5.4	37.8	54	19.7
🐾FCCutter12PA	—	.418	0.0	30.0	82	8.3
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball17PA	.143	.304	0.0	22.2	63	30.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.067	.293	0.0	18.2	36	25.0	107	20
vs RHP	.121	.335	7.7	46.2	62	15.1	127	36

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.443	0.0	12.5	88	4.5	127	9

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.200	.368	0.0	28.6	71	31.6	127	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Valenzuela.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.4

Avg EV on HRs

106.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

392

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/4

Avg LA on HRs

23.3°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sonny Gray · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
21
xwOBA
.319
Whiff%
19.7
HH%
37.8
BRL%
5.4
Pull%
54
FCCutter
Use%
21
xwOBA
.418
Whiff%
8.3
HH%
30.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
82
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
18
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Sonny Gray arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.6	6.1	28.9	57	.359	23.8
FCCutter	20.6	5.8	26.1	54	.351	6.3
STSweeper	18.4	8.3	51.5	72	.257	19.8
CUCurveball	18.3	12.5	42.9	67	.389	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	7.0	30.2	58	.368	25.0	55
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	50	.300	16.7	10

FCCutter21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	27.8	56	.384	14.3	22
vs RHB	2.9	23.5	53	.328	0.0	36

STSweeper18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	66.7	73	.235	25.0	33
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	38.1	71	.282	17.8	36

CUCurveball18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.5	42.9	62	.360	14.7	30
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .458). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider3

FSSplitter1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE — overdue

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 10 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP106PA	.202	.468	.811	8.3%	5
vs LHP43PA	.195	.417	.743	11.1%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home80PA	.280	.574	.962	11.8%	5
🐾Away69PA	.113	.323	.602	6.2%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day56PA	.334	.667	1.078	11.1%	4
Night93PA	.122	.329	.622	7.9%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty55PA	.164	.429	.774	2
Runners On59PA	.286	.510	.838	4
RISP37PA	.233	.433	.757	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs49PA	.163	.465	.840	2
1 Out56PA	.271	.500	.821	3
2 Outs44PA	.154	.385	.703	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.