Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

25.9%

+286

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Weathers (1.82 HR/9) · park 107

Batting #3Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

18.2%

+448

RBI 1+

40.9%

+144

Hits 1+

67.5%

-207

Hits 2+

25.5%

+292

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

30.4%

95% CI · 29.9–31.0%

+229

Fair odds

1st AB

9.2%

Through AB2

17.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
Temp+5%
vs SP+16%
Contact+18%
SP Contact+12%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast+5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0395 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+16% (×1.16) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+265

High

+855

Low

+305

Med

+632

Avg

+558

+265

Low +305High +855

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

14.6

Proj PA

274

HR / PA

.053

ISO

.249

wOBA

.368

wRC+

137

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.8

Hard%

41.8

FB%

50.7

Pull%

45.7

Soft%

15.4

GB%

31.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

22.0

Hard%

47.7

FB%

47.7

Pull%

46.5

Soft%

12.8

GB%

29.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.9

Hard%

39.2

FB%

52.1

Pull%

45.4

Soft%

16.5

GB%

32.0

Home

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

42.0

FB%

50.7

Pull%

51.3

Soft%

13.3

GB%

26.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

41.5

FB%

50.8

Pull%

39.2

Soft%

17.7

GB%

36.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Yankee Stadium mild HR boost (+7)
Ryan Weathers is leaky — 1.82 HR/9 allowed
14.4% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 3/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, CH, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (53% of career HRs)
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Elite barrel% (14.4)
High barrels/PA (9.6%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.82 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.9% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.262↓ vs season .27349 PA · 15d

OPS

.748

ISO

.119

RBI

K-BB

6-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ NYY	5	1	0	0	0	1	.400
06-16	@ NYY	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	vs LAD	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-13	vs LAD	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	vs LAD	4	3	0	1	1	0	1.000
06-10	vs ATL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-09	vs ATL	4	1	1	2	1	0	1.000
💣 377ft · 109.0 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	@ PHI	5	1	0	0	0	0	.200

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball92PA	.296	.431	17.5	43.4	47	26.0
🐾CHChangeup26PA	.318	.533	17.4	54.5	83	6.4
🐾SISinker66PA	.293	.411	15.7	49.0	63	9.2
🐾STSweeper26PA	.218	.355	9.1	47.1	68	21.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.600	.539	21.4	64.3	50	18.6	214	27
vs RHP	.197	.379	16.3	39.5	47	23.1	103	72

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.056	.445	5.6	50.0	78	5.0	214	22
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	1.200	.825	60.0	60.0	100	0.0	103	6

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.538	.510	27.3	54.5	73	10.0	214	14
vs RHP	.208	.387	12.5	47.5	60	4.2	103	57

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.234	0.0	100.0	67	25.0	214	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.239	.393	10.5	31.6	68	13.9	103	25

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

117

🐾vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Vargas.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Confirmed2 of 17 HRs · 12%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 9 of 17 career HRs (53%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.240

Barrel %

14.4

Hard Hit %

45.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.401

xBA

.273

Brl / PA %

9.60

Max EV (mph)

112.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

112.9

Avg EV on HRs

105.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/11

Crushed (105+ mph)

6/11

Avg LA on HRs

28.3°

Brl / PA %

9.60

Sampled across 11 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Weathers · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.431
Whiff%
26.0
HH%
43.4
BRL%
17.5
Pull%
47
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
23
xwOBA
.533
Whiff%
6.4
HH%
54.5
BRL%
17.4
Pull%
83
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinker
Use%
20
xwOBA
.411
Whiff%
9.2
HH%
49.0
BRL%
15.7
Pull%
63
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Ryan Weathers

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

.500

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Ryan Weathers arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.7	21.9	54.5	56	.431	18.7
CHChangeup	22.7	8.6	33.3	67	.248	24.0
SISinker	19.7	6.5	46.4	48	.380	16.2
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	19.3	9.1	17.6	59	.219	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	44.4	77.8	44	.357	45.5	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.9	58	.445	14.2	79

CHChangeup23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.9	33.9	67	.251	22.5	80

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.3	43.5	57	.378	27.8	32
vs RHB	7.7	48.7	44	.381	11.5	47

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	30.0	80	.215	22.7	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	25.0	42	.220	31.6	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .403). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

11 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 6

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker5

FF4-Seam Fastball4

CHChangeup1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 34 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP218PA	.195	.402	.723	12.7%	9
vs LHP93PA	.351	.689	1.156	16.7%	7

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home159PA	.256	.504	.869	14.9%	8
🐾Away152PA	.224	.464	.828	12.8%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day139PA	.150	.354	.699	13.7%	3
🐾Night172PA	.310	.586	.966	14.1%	13

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty122PA	.180	.406	.728	5
Runners On137PA	.285	.571	.972	8
RISP75PA	.288	.576	.989	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs103PA	.247	.481	.908	5
1 Out113PA	.194	.408	.673	6
2 Outs95PA	.295	.590	1.005	5

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.