Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.4%

+648

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Luis Castillo (RHP) (1.18 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

11.3%

+781

RBI 1+

34.7%

+188

Hits 1+

61.8%

-162

Hits 2+

19.6%

+409

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.2%

95% CI · 3.9–4.4%

+2312

Fair odds

1st AB

1.1%

Through AB2

2.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
Temp+5%
vs SP+5%
Contact-22%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast+4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Luis Castillo (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
·90F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0122 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+5% (×1.05) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-22% (×0.78)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 7 games

Now

+650

High

+1635

Low

+745

Med

+1105

Avg

+1118

+650

Low +745High +1635

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.4

Proj PA

132

HR / PA

.010

ISO

.087

wOBA

.288

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

2.5

Hard%

22.7

FB%

37.0

Pull%

36.4

Soft%

24.5

GB%

42.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

20.0

FB%

28.6

Pull%

20.0

Soft%

40.0

GB%

42.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

2.8

Hard%

23.2

FB%

38.3

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

22.1

GB%

42.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

23.4

FB%

34.0

Pull%

36.2

Soft%

31.9

GB%

46.8

Away

HR/FB

4.2

Hard%

22.2

FB%

39.3

Pull%

36.5

Soft%

19.0

GB%

39.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (111)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.241→ vs season .23931 PA · 15d

OPS

.566

ISO

.035

RBI

K-BB

3-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs SEA	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-10	@ SF	4	2	1	0	0	.500
06-09	@ SF	2	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	@ SF	3	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ ARI	5	2	3	1	1	.600
06-02	vs MIA	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-01	vs MIA	1	0	0	0	0	—
05-31	vs SD	3	1	0	0	1	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR44PA	.131	.298	8.8	26.5	44	5.1
🐾SLSlidervR17PA	.133	.236	0.0	18.2	55	22.2
🐾SISinkervR18PA	.200	.299	0.0	26.7	40	12.5
🐾CHChangeupvR19PA	—	.279	7.1	28.6	71	25.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.541	0.0	0.0	25	14.3	—	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.131	.298	8.8	26.5	44	5.1	78	44

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.249	0.0	20.0	80	0.0	—	5
vs RHPTONIGHT	.133	.236	0.0	18.2	55	22.2	78	17

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.308	0.0	16.7	50	15.4	—	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.200	.299	0.0	26.7	40	12.5	78	18

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.279	7.1	28.6	71	25.7	78	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

111

vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Vivas.

Season Statcast

ISO

.079

Barrel %

3.6

Hard Hit %

24.5

xwOBA

.288

xBA

.239

Brl / PA %

2.70

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Avg EV on HRs

—

Avg HR Distance (ft)

—

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

—

Crushed (105+ mph)

—

Avg LA on HRs

—

Brl / PA %

2.70

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Luis Castillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
46
xwOBA
.298
Whiff%
5.1
HH%
26.5
BRL%
8.8
Pull%
44
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.236
Whiff%
22.2
HH%
18.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
55
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 17 PA this season.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.299
Whiff%
12.5
HH%
26.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
40

Career vs Luis Castillo (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

1.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Luis Castillo (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	45.7	14.1	49.3	47	.334	18.5
SLSlider	24.7	7.1	42.1	71	.305	13.1
SISinker	17.0	9.6	50.0	65	.431	12.5
CHChangeup	12.5	10.0	44.0	80	.310	7.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY46% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.3	54.2	48	.379	15.5	90
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.5	46.2	46	.258	21.3	56

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	55.0	75	.347	13.8	31
vs RHB	4.5	27.3	68	.259	13.2	32

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	55.6	56	.542	0.0	12
vs RHB	7.0	53.5	67	.407	13.5	51

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	40.9	77	.324	2.6	23
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	88	.266	18.2	12

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .442). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP132PA	.088	.316	.624	4.0%	1
vs LHP18PA	—	.333	.745	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home72PA	.065	.262	.568	5.9%	0
Away78PA	.089	.368	.701	1.6%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day72PA	.079	.333	.662	3.4%	1
Night78PA	.076	.303	.615	3.6%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty48PA	.046	.205	.434
Runners On64PA	.077	.346	.690
RISP40PA	.036	.143	.413

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs54PA	.091	.409	.832	1
1 Out53PA	.064	.255	.500	0
2 Outs43PA	.078	.289	.575	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-029PA	.185	.444	.686	1
1-016PA	.200	.733	1.233	0
0-111PA	.100	.500	.864	0
2-05PA	—	.200	.400	0
0-211PA	—	—	—	0
3-04PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-217PA	—	.250	.544	0
2-218PA	—	.059	.170	0
3-222PA	.072	.143	.552	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.