Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
10.4%
+863
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Walbert Ureña (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 106
2+ RBI
9.7%
+930
RBI 1+
33.2%
+201
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
Switch Hitter — Batting Side
As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT
17wRC+
🐾As RHB(vs LHP)
106wRC+
🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his weaker side.
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
4.3%
95% CI · 4.1–4.5%
+2222
Fair odds
1st AB
1.0%
Through AB2
1.9%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
Park+6%
Temp+5%
vs SP-10%
Contact-10%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast-9%
SP Statcast-5%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Walbert Ureña (RHP)
·108F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0152 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj
Park+6% (×1.06)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-9% (×0.91)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)
SP Statcast allowed-5% (×0.95)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 8 games
Now
+865
High
+1020
Low
+400
Med
+740
Avg
+743
+865
Low +400High +1020
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
0.7
Proj PA
52
HR / PA
.014
ISO
.104
wOBA
.274
wRC+
70
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
3.6
Hard%
19.4
FB%
46.7
Pull%
46.3
Soft%
11.9
GB%
36.7
vs LHP
HR/FB
9.1
Hard%
17.2
FB%
45.8
Pull%
51.7
Soft%
6.9
GB%
37.5
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
21.1
FB%
47.2
Pull%
42.1
Soft%
15.8
GB%
36.1
🐾Home
HR/FB
6.7
Hard%
23.5
FB%
48.4
Pull%
41.2
Soft%
11.8
GB%
38.7
Away
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
15.2
FB%
44.8
Pull%
51.5
Soft%
12.1
GB%
34.5
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
🏟Chase Field mild HR boost (+6)
🛡Walbert Ureña stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
🔥Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CH)
🌡108°F — ball flies in warm air
·High barrels/PA (6.2%)
·Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.143↓ vs season .25014 PA · 15d
OPS
.286
ISO
—
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
4-0
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-12
@ CIN
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-11
@ MIA
3
1
0
0
0
2
.333
06-07
vs WSH
1
0
0
0
0
1
—
06-05
vs WSH
3
0
0
0
0
1
—
06-04
vs LAD
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-02
vs LAD
3
1
0
0
0
0
.333
06-01
vs LAD
3
0
0
0
0
0
—
05-27
@ SF
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾CHChangeupvR9PA
.428
.367
0.0
12.5
88
8.3
🐾SISinkervR9PA
.500
.259
25.0
75.0
75
20.0
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR36PA
.176
.137
4.3
26.1
39
23.9
🐾STSweeper
—
—
—
—
—
—
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
CHChangeup
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT
.428
.367
0.0
12.5
88
8.3
17
9
SISinker
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.250
.457
50.0
50.0
100
14.3
106
6
vs RHPTONIGHT
.500
.259
25.0
75.0
75
20.0
17
9
FF4-Seam Fastball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.117
.228
0.0
13.3
73
7.7
106
19
vs RHPTONIGHT
.176
.137
4.3
26.1
39
23.9
17
36
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
82
vs RHB
106
🐾vs SHB
94
Chase Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Barrosa.
Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
98.3
Avg EV on HRs
98.1
Avg HR Distance (ft)
362
HRs in sample
3
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/3
Crushed (105+ mph)
0/3
Avg LA on HRs
29.7°
Brl / PA %
6.18
Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Walbert Ureña · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Tough matchup
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.367
Whiff%
8.3
HH%
12.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
88
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.259
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
75.0
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
75
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.137
Whiff%
23.9
HH%
26.1
BRL%
4.3
Pull%
39
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 36 PA this season.
Walbert Ureña (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY
31.9
2.1
18.8
75
.227
24.0
SISinker
31.0
8.8
42.6
65
.379
23.7
FF4-Seam Fastball
22.0
0.0
35.5
55
.237
19.2
STSweeper
15.1
16.7
33.3
56
.297
17.0
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY32% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
2.5
20.0
73
.253
17.6
58
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
0.0
12.5
88
.162
39.3
23
SISinker31% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
4.5
59.1
50
.338
14.3
28
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT
11.4
34.3
74
.404
29.6
52
FF4-Seam Fastball22% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
0.0
28.6
57
.252
23.4
35
vs RHB
0.0
41.2
53
.218
12.9
24
STSweeper15% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
50.0
50.0
25
.389
6.2
5
vs RHB
7.1
28.6
64
.276
24.2
23
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .344). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ARI)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Chase Field (330/407/335 ft) · elev 1086ft
3 HRs this season
vs RHP 2vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
CHChangeup1
SISinker1
STSweeper1
Bats S · Switch hitter
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
8
games since last HR
15
PAs since last HR
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾vs RHP66PA
.113
.258
.443
8.3%
0
vs LHP44PA
.189
.405
.731
6.1%
1
Location
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾Home54PA
.102
.204
.374
7.0%
1
Away56PA
.180
.420
.729
7.9%
0
Time
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Day62PA
.140
.298
.511
11.1%
1
🐾Night48PA
.143
.333
.610
2.8%
0
Base State
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
Bases Empty42PA
.075
.225
.415
0
Runners On42PA
.229
.400
.675
1
RISP24PA
.158
.316
.589
0
Outs
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0 Outs34PA
.097
.258
.470
0
1 Out39PA
.139
.306
.517
0
2 Outs37PA
.187
.375
.672
1
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Mon.
