Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.1%

+607

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Luis Castillo (RHP) (1.18 HR/9) · park 78

2+ RBI

11.8%

+749

RBI 1+

35.1%

+185

Hits 1+

66.6%

-200

Hits 2+

24.6%

+306

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.6%

95% CI · 12.2–12.9%

+696

Fair odds

1st AB

3.5%

Through AB2

6.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-22%
Temp+5%
vs SP+5%
Contact+14%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast+19%
SP Statcast+4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Luis Castillo (RHP)

·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0298 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+5% (×1.05) · blended_proj

Park-22% (×0.78)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+19% (×1.19)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 3 HR

Now

+605

High

+1270

Low

+410

Med

+775

Avg

+814

🐾🐾🐾+605

Low +410🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1270

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 3× priced here.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.3

Proj PA

215

HR / PA

.034

ISO

.172

wOBA

.326

wRC+

106

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.4

Hard%

36.4

FB%

46.2

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

13.6

GB%

35.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

13.8

Hard%

31.7

FB%

48.3

Pull%

51.7

Soft%

18.3

GB%

31.7

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

18.8

Hard%

40.3

FB%

44.4

Pull%

48.6

Soft%

9.7

GB%

38.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

13.8

Hard%

35.0

FB%

48.3

Pull%

43.3

Soft%

16.7

GB%

36.7

Away

HR/FB

18.8

Hard%

37.5

FB%

44.4

Pull%

55.6

Soft%

11.1

GB%

34.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Nationals Park suppresses HRs (78)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (78)
High barrels/PA (7.8%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.244↓ vs season .26850 PA · 15d

OPS

.809

ISO

.245

RBI

K-BB

10-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs SEA	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ SF	5	2	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 399ft · 101.1 EV · Sinker
06-09	@ SF	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	@ SF	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ ARI	4	1	0	0	0	2	.500
06-06	@ ARI	4	1	1	2	1	0	1.000
💣 411ft · 104.3 EV · Cutter
06-05	@ ARI	2	1	0	0	1	0	.500
06-03	vs MIA	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR34PA	.138	.344	9.1	45.5	46	12.9
🐾SLSlidervR21PA	—	.286	7.7	30.8	54	20.7
🐾SISinkervR19PA	.466	.492	16.7	58.3	92	5.9
🐾CHChangeup18PA	.235	.361	5.9	53.3	82	12.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.193	.383	10.5	36.8	32	8.0	123	28
vs RHPTONIGHT	.138	.344	9.1	45.5	46	12.9	142	34

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.297	0.0	33.3	83	10.0	123	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.286	7.7	30.8	54	20.7	142	21

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.215	.326	25.0	33.3	50	19.2	123	15
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.466	.492	16.7	58.3	92	5.9	142	19

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.250	.394	6.7	53.3	80	6.7	123	17
vs RHP	no sample

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

111

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Mead.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #8 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#8

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.243

Barrel %

11.4

Hard Hit %

44.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.372

xBA

.268

Brl / PA %

7.80

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Avg EV on HRs

105.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

390

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/5

Avg LA on HRs

28.4°

Brl / PA %

7.80

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Luis Castillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
46
xwOBA
.344
Whiff%
12.9
HH%
45.5
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
46
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.286
Whiff%
20.7
HH%
30.8
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
54
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.492
Whiff%
5.9
HH%
58.3
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
92
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Luis Castillo (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	45.7	14.1	49.3	47	.334	18.5
SLSlider	24.7	7.1	42.1	71	.305	13.1
SISinker	17.0	9.6	50.0	65	.431	12.5
CHChangeup	12.5	10.0	44.0	80	.310	7.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY46% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.3	54.2	48	.379	15.5	90
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.5	46.2	46	.258	21.3	56

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	55.0	75	.347	13.8	31
vs RHB	4.5	27.3	68	.259	13.2	32

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	55.6	56	.542	0.0	12
vs RHB	7.0	53.5	67	.407	13.5	51

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	40.9	77	.324	2.6	23
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	88	.266	18.2	12

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .472). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

STSweeper1

CUCurveball1

SISinker1

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP112PA	.245	.479	.836	11.4%	6
vs LHP83PA	.230	.473	.798	11.3%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home94PA	.219	.463	.803	10.0%	4
Away101PA	.255	.488	.835	12.3%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day81PA	.175	.351	.598	10.8%	3
Night114PA	.287	.574	.986	11.8%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty64PA	.242	.483	.796	3
Runners On92PA	.241	.494	.853	5
RISP60PA	.285	.571	.988	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs69PA	.224	.448	.796	4
1 Out68PA	.407	.678	1.046	6
2 Outs58PA	.059	.275	.585	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-015PA	.200	.400	.600	1
1-010PA	.778	1.111	1.511	2
0-117PA	.294	.529	.765	1
2-01PA	—	—	—	0
0-219PA	.157	.368	.579	1
1-224PA	—	.167	.333	0
2-234PA	.212	.485	.779	2
3-238PA	.455	.682	1.234	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.