Home Run
13.9%
+617
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs Joey Estes (RHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 114
2+ RBI
11.7%
+757
RBI 1+
35.0%
+186
Hits 1+
61.2%
-158
Hits 2+
19.1%
+423
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter15.2%
95% CI · 14.7–15.6%
+560
Fair odds
1st AB
4.5%
Through AB2
8.7%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park+14%
- Temp+5%
- vs SP+40%
- Contact-12%
- Statcast+4%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Estes (RHP)
- ·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
- ·87F game
- ·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0295 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)+40% (×1.40) · blended_proj
Park+14% (×1.14)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+4% (×1.04)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline-0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 16 games · 2 HR
Now
+615
High
+1175
Low
+400
Med
+645
Avg
+694
🐾🐾+615
Low +400🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1175
🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100
Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.
⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.
Recent — tap a game
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
12.1
Proj PA
363
HR / PA
.033
ISO
.181
wOBA
.331
wRC+
96
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
7.2
Hard%
34.5
FB%
42.3
Pull%
40.0
Soft%
13.3
GB%
36.8
vs LHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
30.3
FB%
43.8
Pull%
33.3
Soft%
3.0
GB%
25.0
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
9.1
Hard%
35.6
FB%
42.0
Pull%
41.7
Soft%
15.9
GB%
39.7
Home
HR/FB
8.8
Hard%
41.1
FB%
46.6
Pull%
37.0
Soft%
8.2
GB%
34.2
🐾Away
HR/FB
5.7
Hard%
29.3
FB%
38.9
Pull%
42.4
Soft%
17.4
GB%
38.9
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
4.0 🐾STRONG PLAY
- Las Vegas Ballpark mild HR boost (+14)
- Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (77% of career HRs)
- 87°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park boost (114)
- High barrels/PA (5.6%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.200↓ vs season .23648 PA · 15d
OPS
.673
ISO
.244
HR
3
RBI
7
K-BB
18-2
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 | vs CHC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 06-10 | vs CHC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .500 |
| 06-09 | vs CHC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 💣 433ft · 106.0 EV · Slider | ||||||||
| 06-07 | vs MIL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .500 |
| 06-06 | vs MIL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-05 | vs MIL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .500 |
| 06-02 | @ LAA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-01 | @ LAA | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | — |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CUvR7PA | .285 | .345 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 60 | 25.0 |
| SIvR29PA | .125 | .354 | 5.0 | 55.0 | 70 | 10.3 |
| FCvR16PA | .143 | .353 | 8.3 | 33.3 | 50 | 32.3 |
| SLvR41PA | .205 | .304 | 8.8 | 20.6 | 56 | 34.3 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
CUCurveball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHPTONIGHT | .285 | .345 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 60 | 25.0 | 48 | 7 |
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES | — | .720 | 20.0 | 60.0 | 40 | 0.0 | 53 | 7 |
| vs RHPTONIGHT | .125 | .354 | 5.0 | 55.0 | 70 | 10.3 | 48 | 29 |
FCCutter
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHPTONIGHT | .143 | .353 | 8.3 | 33.3 | 50 | 32.3 | 48 | 16 |
SLSlider
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHPTONIGHT | .205 | .304 | 8.8 | 20.6 | 56 | 34.3 | 48 | 41 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
95
🐾vs RHB
114
vs SHB
104
Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Tovar.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 23 of 30 career HRs (77%).
3
1
·
23
2
🐾
3
3
·
4
·
1
5
·
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#2
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
ISO
.121
Barrel %
8.5
Hard Hit %
36.4
Pull % (HRs)
67
xwOBA
.299
xBA
.236
Brl / PA %
5.60
Max EV (mph)
109.1
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
107.1
Avg EV on HRs
105.8
Avg HR Distance (ft)
421
HRs in sample
3
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/3
Crushed (105+ mph)
2/3
Avg LA on HRs
26.3°
Brl / PA %
5.60
Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Career vs Joey Estes (RHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
.800AVG · small sample (5 PA)
OPS
2.200
HR
0
RBI
1
K-BB
0-0
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .562). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft
3 HRs this season
vs RHP 3vs LHP 0
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SLSlider1
SISinker1
FF4-Seam Fastball1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾vs RHP192PA | .135 | .343 | .593 | 9.9% | 5 |
| vs LHP59PA | .074 | .296 | .584 | 9.1% | 0 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home115PA | .153 | .343 | .595 | 13.8% | 3 |
| 🐾Away136PA | .095 | .323 | .588 | 6.3% | 2 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day80PA | .078 | .289 | .527 | 7.4% | 1 |
| 🐾Night171PA | .141 | .353 | .622 | 10.7% | 4 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty64PA | .122 | .368 | .696 | 0 |
| Runners On125PA | .118 | .347 | .595 | 3 |
| RISP72PA | .059 | .206 | .359 | 0 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs93PA | .131 | .333 | .591 | 3 |
| 1 Out75PA | .100 | .286 | .513 | 1 |
| 2 Outs83PA | .128 | .372 | .661 | 1 |
Count
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-047PA | .261 | .652 | 1.056 | 3 |
| 1-011PA | .363 | .818 | 1.273 | 1 |
| 0-127PA | .269 | .577 | .873 | 1 |
| 2-06PA | .500 | .667 | .833 | 1 |
| 0-238PA | — | .135 | .293 | 0 |
| 3-03PA | — | — | .667 | 0 |
| 1-254PA | .019 | .077 | .132 | 0 |
| 2-223PA | .087 | .261 | .435 | 0 |
| 3-229PA | .096 | .286 | .700 | 0 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.