Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

6.7%

+1397

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Yesavage (0.57 HR/9) · park 85

Batting #2Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

7.7%

+1203

RBI 1+

31.3%

+219

Hits 1+

63.0%

-170

Hits 2+

20.8%

+381

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.1%

95% CI · 7.8–8.4%

+1138

Fair odds

1st AB

1.7%

Through AB2

3.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
Wind+14%
vs SP-17%
Lineup+3%
SP Contact-12%
Statcast-5%
SP Statcast-7%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·19 mph wind out to OF
·Big bats hitting behind

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0287 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-17% (×0.83) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-5% (×0.95)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+555

High

+4000

Low

+455

Med

+712

Avg

+915

+555

Low +455High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.5

Proj PA

265

HR / PA

.028

ISO

.159

wOBA

.313

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.3

Hard%

29.2

FB%

32.0

Pull%

38.4

Soft%

16.2

GB%

43.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

34.7

FB%

40.3

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

9.7

GB%

37.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.8

Hard%

27.1

FB%

28.9

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

18.6

GB%

46.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

26.0

FB%

32.3

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

19.1

GB%

47.7

Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

32.1

FB%

31.7

Pull%

36.4

Soft%

13.6

GB%

40.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Fenway Park suppresses HRs (85)
Trey Yesavage stingy: only 0.57 HR/9
Hot streak: .837 OPS over last 15 days
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (85)
High barrels/PA (4.5%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.57 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.314↑ vs season .24652 PA · 15d

OPS

.837

ISO

.196

RBI

K-BB

10-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs TOR	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-16	vs TOR	5	2	0	0	0	1	.600
06-14	vs TEX	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	vs TEX	4	2	0	2	0	1	.500
06-12	vs TEX	5	3	1	3	0	0	1.600
💣 374ft · 96.8 EV · Slider
06-10	@ TB	4	1	1	3	0	3	1.000
💣 395ft · 102.9 EV · Changeup
06-09	@ TB	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	@ TB	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball77PA	.118	.300	5.6	40.0	46	21.2
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider35PA	.264	.251	3.3	40.7	73	30.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.059	.194	0.0	54.5	36	22.9	149	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.121	.329	7.0	37.2	49	17.6	104	67

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.242	.279	3.4	44.8	72	24.3	104	34

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rafaela.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Confirmed0 of 3 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 1 of 3 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5#7#9

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.162

Barrel %

6.2

Hard Hit %

36.3

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.296

xBA

.246

Brl / PA %

4.50

Max EV (mph)

108.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

102.2

Avg EV on HRs

99.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

363

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/5

Avg LA on HRs

28.4°

Brl / PA %

4.50

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Yesavage · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
47
xwOBA
.300
Whiff%
21.2
HH%
40.0
BRL%
5.6
Pull%
46
FSSplit-Finger
Use%
32
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.251
Whiff%
30.3
HH%
40.7
BRL%
3.3
Pull%
73
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 35 PA this season.

Trey Yesavage arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	47.0	3.2	35.5	40	.280	21.7
FSSplit-Finger	31.6	5.6	22.2	69	.274	15.2
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.4	7.4	44.4	82	.286	24.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball47% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	2.9	42.9	49	.319	30.3	54
vs RHB	3.7	25.9	30	.234	16.9	44

FSSplit-Finger32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.2	21.9	69	.292	16.9	49
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	75	.183	11.8	9

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	45.5	73	.262	15.4	14
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	43.8	88	.299	28.1	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .452). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

ST🐾Sweeper2

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

CHChangeup1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP202PA	.134	.412	.744	4.9%	5
vs LHP66PA	.246	.557	.921	11.6%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home141PA	.150	.451	.791	6.2%	4
Away127PA	.173	.443	.782	6.3%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day110PA	.130	.420	.775	7.4%	1
Night158PA	.182	.466	.795	5.6%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty92PA	.139	.430	.767	3
Runners On122PA	.163	.445	.797	4
RISP66PA	.183	.483	.847	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs86PA	.208	.488	.802	1
1 Out107PA	.118	.376	.731	3
2 Outs75PA	.164	.493	.840	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.