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Spencer TorkelsonRHB
DET
🐾 Tonight2:10 PM MT · Progressive Field
Home Run
13.8%
+623
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Joey Cantillo (LHP) (1.48 HR/9) · park 70
2+ RBI
11.6%
+762
RBI 1+
34.9%
+186
Hits 1+
56.6%
-130
Hits 2+
15.1%
+561
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
16.2%
95% CI · 15.7–16.6%
+519
Fair odds
1st AB
4.4%
Through AB2
8.5%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park-30%
  • Temp+5%
  • Contact+3%
  • SP Contact+9%
  • Statcast+21%
  • SP Statcast+1%
  • Discipline-1%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Cantillo (LHP)
  • ·85F game
  • ·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
  • ·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0430 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-0% (×1.00) · blended_proj
Park-30% (×0.70)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+21% (×1.21)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)
SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 14 games · 1 HR
Now
+625
High
+740
Low
+390
Med
+575
Avg
+569
🐾+625
Low +390🐾 HR money zoneHigh +740
🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-13 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
16.1
Proj PA
366
HR / PA
.044
ISO
.206
wOBA
.334
wRC+
111
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG
Season
HR/FB
13.7
Hard%
40.6
FB%
51.0
Pull%
48.3
Soft%
9.8
GB%
29.4
🐾vs LHP
HR/FB
5.9
Hard%
40.6
FB%
53.1
Pull%
46.9
Soft%
3.1
GB%
34.4
vs RHP
HR/FB
16.1
Hard%
40.5
FB%
50.4
Pull%
48.6
Soft%
11.7
GB%
27.9
Home
HR/FB
17.9
Hard%
41.3
FB%
61.9
Pull%
50.8
Soft%
11.1
GB%
23.8
🐾Away
HR/FB
11.4
Hard%
40.2
FB%
42.7
Pull%
46.3
Soft%
8.5
GB%
34.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
4.0 🐾
STRONG PLAY
  • Progressive Field suppresses HRs (70)
  • 13.3% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
  • Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (44% of career HRs)
  • 86°F — ball flies in warm air
  • Park drag (70)
  • Elite barrel% (13.3)
  • High barrels/PA (7.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.244↑ vs season .21151 PA · 15d
OPS
.803
ISO
.245
HR
3
RBI
7
K-BB
17-4
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12@ CLE3111011.333
06-11vs MIN4112031.000
💣 371ft · 95.6 EV · Curveball
06-10vs MIN300012—
06-09vs MIN310011.333
06-07vs SEA410001.250
06-06vs SEA300002—
06-05vs SEA4112011.000
💣 389ft · 100.3 EV · Slider
06-03@ TB300100—
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾FFvL20PA.214.4328.350.05015.6
🐾CHvL18PA.124.34250.050.07548.8
🐾CUvL6PA—.1180.0—7522.2
🐾SL34PA.300.30313.052.68733.8
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.214.4328.350.05015.612420
vs RHP.320.35421.950.06623.79460
CHChangeup
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.124.34250.050.07548.812418
vs RHP.250.11225.050.07538.59412
CUCurveball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPTONIGHT—.1180.00.07522.21246
vs RHPno sample
SLSlider
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHP.300.33514.347.68630.99434
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
124
🐾vs RHB
70
vs SHB
97

Progressive Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Torkelson.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 7 of 16 career HRs (44%).
1
·
1
2
·
3
3
·
7
4
🐾
5
5
🐾
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#4#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.204
Barrel %
13.3
Hard Hit %
44.8
Pull % (HRs)
89
xwOBA
.317
xBA
.211
Brl / PA %
7.20
Max EV (mph)
109.8
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
109.8
Avg EV on HRs
104.5
Avg HR Distance (ft)
402
HRs in sample
9
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/9
Crushed (105+ mph)
4/9
Avg LA on HRs
29.2°
Brl / PA %
7.20

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Joey Cantillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT
  • FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
    Use%
    42
    xwOBA
    .432
    Whiff%
    15.6
    HH%
    50.0
    BRL%
    8.3
    Pull%
    50

    🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

  • CHChangeupvs LHP
    Use%
    29
    xwOBA
    .342
    Whiff%
    48.8
    HH%
    50.0
    BRL%
    50.0
    Pull%
    75
  • CUCurveballvs LHP
    Use%
    19
    xwOBA
    .118
    Whiff%
    22.2
    HH%
    0.0
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    75
Career vs Joey Cantillo (LHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)
OPS
1.000
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
1-0
Joey Cantillo (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
FF41.812.645.848.38612.6
CH⚡ PUT-AWAY28.54.024.574.27423.8
CU19.23.034.470.24922.4
SL9.010.536.858.3404.2
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball42% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB8.345.850.3938.834
vs RHB14.344.448.38415.792
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY20.020.060.27425.017
vs RHB2.224.476.27423.476
CUCurveball19% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT12.537.588.36311.110
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY0.032.064.22426.847
SLSlider9% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB0.023.154.2415.614
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT33.366.767.5380.07

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.28.45🐾.25.38.40.32.36.42.21
🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .449). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CLE)
CFLFRF325ft410ft325ftFFCHFFSIFFSISIFFSL
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Progressive Field (325/410/325 ft) · elev 660ft
9 HRs this season
vs RHP 8vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4
SISinker3
CHChangeup1
SLSlider1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
vs RHP203PA.218.425.71614.4%10
🐾vs LHP63PA.157.392.77315.8%1
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Home129PA.230.434.73612.9%7
🐾Away137PA.180.402.72316.1%4
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Day96PA.147.386.67810.3%3
Night170PA.240.437.76117.9%8
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty77PA.224.418.7174
Runners On119PA.215.439.7845
RISP59PA.213.468.8412
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs102PA.167.378.6723
1 Out83PA.338.592.9417
2 Outs81PA.116.290.5861
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-022PA.316.579.9432
1-013PA.153.538.9230
0-120PA.210.526.8761
2-07PA———0
0-222PA.137.273.4091
3-04PA——1.0000
1-238PA.132.211.2891
2-253PA.057.189.3210
3-254PA.172.429.9471

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.