Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

11.8%

+746

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 91

2+ RBI

10.5%

+853

RBI 1+

33.9%

+195

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.9%

95% CI · 15.5–16.3%

+529

Fair odds

1st AB

4.0%

Through AB2

7.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-9%
Temp+5%
Contact+25%
Statcast+12%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·85F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0299 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher

Park-9% (×0.91)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+25% (×1.25)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+12% (×1.12)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games · 1 HR

Now

+6000

High

+8030

Low

+500

Med

+765

Avg

+2080

🐾+6000

Low +500🐾 HR money zoneHigh +8030

BELOW ZONEspot score 16

Longer price than he's homered at (+735 to +735). Model sees less pop tonight.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+7352026-06-07vs CLEfair odds

HomeBat 4thoff LHPCutter

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.6

Proj PA

HR / PA

.027

ISO

.145

wOBA

.294

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

41.2

FB%

45.1

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

15.7

GB%

35.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

52.9

FB%

47.1

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

17.6

GB%

29.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

35.3

FB%

44.1

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

14.7

GB%

38.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

38.1

FB%

57.1

Pull%

52.4

Soft%

14.3

GB%

33.3

Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

43.3

FB%

36.7

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

16.7

GB%

36.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
85°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (91)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.154↓ vs season .25015 PA · 15d

OPS

.729

ISO

.308

RBI

K-BB

2-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ BOS	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	@ BOS	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	vs CLE	4	1	1	2	1	1	1.000
💣 417ft · 106.5 EV · Cutter
06-06	vs CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	vs CLE	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	@ STL	2	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
05-30	vs KC	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
05-29	vs KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
SISinker13PA	.584	.502	16.7	58.3	50	—
SLSlider17PA	.063	.353	7.1	33.3	57	30.8
FF4-Seam Fastball12PA	.100	.246	0.0	66.7	43	20.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	1.000	.797	25.0	100.0	50	0.0	206	4
vs RHP	.333	.371	12.5	37.5	50	7.1	39	10

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.066	.441	9.1	27.3	64	28.6	39	17

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.200	.345	0.0	50.0	50	44.4	206	6
vs RHP	—	.197	0.0	60.0	40	10.0	39	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Foscue.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.2

Avg EV on HRs

105.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

392

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/2

Avg LA on HRs

25.5°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .843). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker2

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 16 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP48PA	.091	.273	.502	5.4%	1
vs LHP27PA	.375	.708	1.115	16.7%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home28PA	.231	.346	.525	9.1%	2
Away47PA	.166	.476	.838	9.1%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day26PA	.120	.320	.551	5.0%	1
🐾Night49PA	.232	.488	.815	11.4%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty21PA	.150	.300	.490	1
Runners On40PA	.143	.429	.779	1
RISP24PA	—	.105	.355	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs19PA	.295	.471	.734	1
1 Out29PA	.120	.360	.670	1
2 Outs27PA	.193	.462	.758	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.