Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.9%

+741

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Michael Soroka (RHP) (0.73 HR/9) · park 110

2+ RBI

10.5%

+849

RBI 1+

34.0%

+195

Hits 1+

61.1%

-157

Hits 2+

19.0%

+427

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.7%

95% CI · 12.3–13.0%

+690

Fair odds

1st AB

3.0%

Through AB2

5.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+10%
Temp+5%
vs SP-16%
Contact-3%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast+6%
SP Statcast-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Michael Soroka (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
·88F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0346 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+10% (×1.10)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+6% (×1.06)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 10 games · 2 HR

Now

+740

High

+1135

Low

+605

Med

+760

Avg

+800

🐾🐾+740

Low +605🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1135

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.2

Proj PA

302

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.185

wOBA

.330

wRC+

104

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

29.4

FB%

48.4

Pull%

35.0

Soft%

15.0

GB%

34.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

32.4

FB%

52.9

Pull%

32.4

Soft%

10.8

GB%

26.5

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

28.5

FB%

47.2

Pull%

35.8

Soft%

16.3

GB%

36.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

8.1

Hard%

35.6

FB%

51.4

Pull%

31.5

Soft%

11.0

GB%

34.7

Away

HR/FB

12.2

Hard%

26.7

FB%

46.6

Pull%

37.8

Soft%

17.8

GB%

34.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Great American Ball Park mild HR boost (+10)
Michael Soroka stingy: only 0.73 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (75% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .935 OPS over last 15 days
89°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (110)
High barrels/PA (5.5%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.73 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.242↑ vs season .23539 PA · 15d

OPS

.935

ISO

.334

RBI

K-BB

11-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs ARI	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ SD	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-09	@ SD	3	0	0	0	2	2	—
06-08	@ SD	3	2	0	0	1	0	1.000
06-07	@ STL	4	2	2	2	0	2	2.000
💣 405ft · 102.0 EV · Sinker💣 411ft · 104.0 EV · Sweeper
06-06	@ STL	3	1	1	2	1	0	1.333
💣 381ft · 103.5 EV · Slider
06-03	vs KC	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333
06-02	vs KC	2	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SVSlurve	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR56PA	.192	.349	13.3	56.7	47	30.6
🐾CHChangeupvR10PA	.111	.250	0.0	12.5	75	33.3
🐾FCCuttervR6PA	—	.471	50.0	50.0	100	53.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.361	12.5	31.2	25	2.6	135	23
vs RHPTONIGHT	.192	.349	13.3	56.7	47	30.6	74	56

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.071	.202	0.0	0.0	50	26.9	135	15
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.111	.250	0.0	12.5	75	33.3	74	10

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.600	.367	25.0	50.0	50	12.5	135	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.471	50.0	50.0	100	53.8	74	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

110

vs SHB

104

Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches McLain.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 6 of 8 career HRs (75%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.157

Barrel %

8.8

Hard Hit %

37.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.330

xBA

.235

Brl / PA %

5.50

Max EV (mph)

110.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.6

Avg EV on HRs

104.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

401

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/7

Avg LA on HRs

26.4°

Brl / PA %

5.50

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Michael Soroka · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

SVSlurve
Use%
33
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.349
Whiff%
30.6
HH%
56.7
BRL%
13.3
Pull%
47
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
13
xwOBA
.250
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
12.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 10 PA this season.

Michael Soroka (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SVSlurve	32.8	3.2	32.8	69	.273	22.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.7	8.8	41.9	49	.345	17.3
CHChangeup	12.6	15.2	21.9	67	.375	14.8
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.7	12.9	32.0	81	.340	26.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SVSlurve33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	36.1	69	.301	23.1	68
vs RHB	7.7	30.8	69	.237	26.2	50

FF4-Seam Fastball32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.9	34.4	50	.389	16.8	88
vs RHB	0.0	56.2	44	.211	19.6	27

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	20.0	67	.379	16.0	35
vs RHB	no sample

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	50.0	78	.357	22.2	21
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	23.1	85	.316	33.3	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .372). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Great American Ball Park (328/404/325 ft) · elev 482ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

CUCurveball1

STSweeper1

SISinker1

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP197PA	.147	.345	.624	8.5%	5
vs LHP60PA	.192	.426	.816	13.3%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home122PA	.139	.317	.637	9.0%	3
Away135PA	.170	.398	.689	10.3%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day108PA	.172	.398	.731	12.0%	4
Night149PA	.145	.336	.620	8.0%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty96PA	.071	.271	.563	1
Runners On109PA	.226	.398	.685	5
RISP65PA	.127	.291	.572	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs89PA	.144	.355	.673	3
1 Out89PA	.185	.444	.770	3
2 Outs79PA	.135	.269	.535	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-035PA	.121	.394	.680	1
1-017PA	.059	.294	.529	0
0-120PA	.350	.700	1.050	2
2-03PA	1.000	1.333	1.667	1
0-229PA	.108	.179	.282	1
3-07PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-238PA	.027	.053	.079	0
2-243PA	.186	.488	.791	1
3-240PA	.280	.480	.980	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.