Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.2%

+1126

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (RHP) (0.99 HR/9) · park 85

2+ RBI

8.5%

+1079

RBI 1+

32.1%

+212

Hits 1+

60.0%

-150

Hits 2+

18.0%

+456

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

2.9%

95% CI · 2.7–3.1%

+3364

Fair odds

1st AB

0.6%

Through AB2

1.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
vs SP-34%
Contact-19%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast-15%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs José Soriano (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0130 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-34% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-19% (×0.81)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+1125

High

+1655

Low

+660

Med

+845

Avg

+929

+1125

Low +660High +1655

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.9

Proj PA

227

HR / PA

.013

ISO

.094

wOBA

.280

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

2.8

Hard%

18.6

FB%

36.4

Pull%

36.3

Soft%

17.6

GB%

41.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

13.3

FB%

14.3

Pull%

26.7

Soft%

13.3

GB%

57.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

2.9

Hard%

19.5

FB%

40.0

Pull%

37.9

Soft%

18.4

GB%

38.8

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.8

FB%

33.3

Pull%

28.9

Soft%

13.3

GB%

46.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

19.3

FB%

38.9

Pull%

42.1

Soft%

21.1

GB%

37.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Angel Stadium suppresses HRs (85)
Park drag (85)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.171↓ vs season .22941 PA · 15d

OPS

.607

ISO

.143

RBI

K-BB

9-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-09	vs BOS	4	1	1	0	1	.250
06-08	vs BOS	2	0	0	0	2	—
06-07	@ MIA	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-06	@ MIA	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ MIA	4	1	2	1	1	.750
06-03	vs DET	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-02	vs DET	4	2	0	0	0	.750
06-01	vs DET	3	0	0	2	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR19PA	—	.233	0.0	30.0	60	—
🐾CUCurveballvR9PA	—	.179	0.0	33.3	50	44.4
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR58PA	.049	.356	5.7	28.6	49	12.0
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.081	0.0	0.0	67	0.0	—	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.233	0.0	30.0	60	0.0	91	19

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.179	0.0	33.3	50	44.4	91	9

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.374	0.0	0.0	0	18.2	—	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.049	.356	5.7	28.6	49	12.0	91	58

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Palacios.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 2 of 4 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#3#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.082

Barrel %

2.9

Hard Hit %

26.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.300

xBA

.229

Brl / PA %

1.90

Max EV (mph)

106.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

100.1

Avg EV on HRs

100.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

382

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

33.0°

Brl / PA %

1.90

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.233
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
30.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
60
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.179
Whiff%
44.4
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.356
Whiff%
12.0
HH%
28.6
BRL%
5.7
Pull%
49

Career vs José Soriano (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (4 PA)

OPS

1.000

RBI

K-BB

2-0

José Soriano (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	26.5	9.3	47.3	69	.383	17.6
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.2	—	26.2	—	.249	26.3
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	18.0	47.9	50	.417	18.1
FSSplit-Finger	19.4	2.5	17.9	73	.200	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	58.3	72	.472	4.5	45
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	38.5	67	.311	25.8	52

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	50.0	57	.464	16.3	49
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.6	40

FSSplit-Finger19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	18.8	78	.197	25.3	56
vs RHB	12.5	25.0	50	.214	23.8	13

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .422). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP136PA	.079	.307	.653	4.3%	1
vs LHP23PA	.095	.381	.729	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home77PA	.080	.306	.670	2.1%	0
🐾Away82PA	.082	.329	.658	4.8%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day70PA	.065	.262	.548	5.5%	1
🐾Night89PA	.095	.365	.758	1.9%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty47PA	.050	.225	.523	0
Runners On77PA	.121	.409	.786	1
RISP61PA	.132	.434	.811	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs53PA	.093	.349	.726	1
1 Out53PA	.066	.283	.604	0
2 Outs53PA	.087	.326	.666	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-016PA	.188	.438	.688	0
1-07PA	.572	1.143	1.714	1
0-116PA	—	.312	.625	0
2-05PA	—	—	—	0
0-219PA	—	.222	.485	0
3-09PA	—	.500	1.389	0
1-225PA	—	.080	.160	0
2-229PA	.071	.321	.597	0
3-217PA	—	.182	.652	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.