Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.0%

+1010

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Reid Detmers (LHP) (0.72 HR/9) · park 82

Batting #8Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.9%

+1017

RBI 1+

32.5%

+208

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.1%

95% CI · 5.9–6.4%

+1530

Fair odds

1st AB

1.5%

Through AB2

3.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-18%
Temp+5%
vs SP-12%
Contact-6%
SP Contact-13%
Statcast-7%
SP Statcast-3%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Reid Detmers (LHP)

·109F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0277 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.89) · blended_proj

Park-18% (×0.82)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-7% (×0.93)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1010

High

+1135

Low

+425

Med

+775

Avg

+754

+1010

Low +425High +1135

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.3

Proj PA

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.152

wOBA

.293

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.8

Hard%

33.7

FB%

44.6

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

14.5

GB%

34.9

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

11.1

FB%

55.6

Pull%

22.2

Soft%

33.3

GB%

33.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

36.5

FB%

43.2

Pull%

39.2

Soft%

12.2

GB%

35.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

40.0

FB%

55.0

Pull%

47.5

Soft%

7.5

GB%

27.5

Away

HR/FB

26.7

Hard%

27.9

FB%

34.9

Pull%

27.9

Soft%

20.9

GB%

41.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Chase Field suppresses HRs (82)
Reid Detmers stingy: only 0.72 HR/9
110°F — ball flies in warm air
16 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (82)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.72 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.125↓ vs season .2509 PA · 15d

OPS

.347

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

3-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs LAA	2	1	0	0	.500
06-13	@ CIN	4	0	0	3	—
06-11	@ MIA	0	0	1	0	—
06-05	vs WSH	2	0	0	0	—
06-04	vs LAD	0	0	0	0	—
05-31	@ SEA	1	0	0	1	—
05-30	@ SEA	3	1	0	1	.333
05-29	@ SEA	2	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball38PA	.195	.286	13.0	47.8	48	32.5
🐾SLSlidervL8PA	—	.119	0.0	40.0	60	27.3
🐾CHChangeup13PA	—	.133	0.0	28.6	71	47.1
🐾CUCurveball14PA	—	.161	0.0	28.6	80	43.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.200	.293	13.0	47.8	48	29.9	74	37

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.119	0.0	40.0	60	27.3	—	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.195	0.0	40.0	60	29.2	74	12

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.144	0.0	28.6	71	33.3	74	12

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.169	0.0	40.0	80	42.9	74	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

106

vs SHB

Chase Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Castillo.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #8Confirmed0 of 3 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 3 of 3 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.3

Avg EV on HRs

101.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

403

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

32.7°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Reid Detmers · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
45
xwOBA
.286
Whiff%
32.5
HH%
47.8
BRL%
13.0
Pull%
48
SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.119
Whiff%
27.3
HH%
40.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
60
CHChangeup
Use%
12
xwOBA
.133
Whiff%
47.1
HH%
28.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
71

Career vs Reid Detmers (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

1.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Reid Detmers (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.5	8.9	48.5	44	.285	18.2
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.5	4.7	27.4	63	.223	25.7
CHChangeup	11.7	10.3	34.5	76	.335	18.9
CUCurveball	10.1	0.0	—	77	.241	23.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball45% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.8	51.7	48	.307	19.5	41
vs RHB	6.9	47.2	42	.277	17.1	105

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.2	33.3	46	.243	18.0	35
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.0	25.0	73	.216	29.1	87

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	10.3	34.5	76	.343	15.6	36

CUCurveball10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	100	.270	20.0	6
vs RHB	0.0	9.1	73	.233	23.5	23

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .488). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ARI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Chase Field (330/407/335 ft) · elev 1086ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP120PA	.148	.352	.627	6.8%	4
🐾vs LHP18PA	—	.056	.112	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home63PA	.053	.193	.399	7.5%	0
Away75PA	.189	.406	.686	4.7%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day73PA	.132	.353	.627	7.1%	2
🐾Night65PA	.121	.259	.474	4.9%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty43PA	.147	.293	.479	2
Runners On69PA	.143	.381	.671	2
RISP44PA	.180	.462	.803	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs37PA	.062	.156	.372	0
1 Out44PA	.175	.375	.625	2
2 Outs57PA	.130	.352	.615	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Tue.