Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

5.2%

+1809

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Tarik Skubal (LHP) (0.42 HR/9) · park 124

2+ RBI

6.9%

+1353

RBI 1+

30.6%

+227

Hits 1+

63.2%

-171

Hits 2+

21.0%

+377

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

2.6%

95% CI · 2.4–2.8%

+3741

Fair odds

1st AB

0.5%

Through AB2

1.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+24%
Temp+5%
vs SP-35%
Contact-26%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-6%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Tarik Skubal (LHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 124)
·85F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0112 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.65) · blended_proj

Park+24% (×1.24)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-26% (×0.74)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-6% (×0.94)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 9 games

Now

+1810

High

+1685

Low

+1050

Med

+1205

Avg

+1296

+1810

Low +1050High +1685

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.4

Proj PA

333

HR / PA

.004

ISO

.065

wOBA

.303

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

1.4

Hard%

17.5

FB%

38.5

Pull%

32.5

Soft%

18.5

GB%

40.6

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.5

FB%

35.7

Pull%

28.1

Soft%

24.6

GB%

44.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

1.9

Hard%

17.5

FB%

39.7

Pull%

34.3

Soft%

16.1

GB%

39.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

3.2

Hard%

16.8

FB%

34.1

Pull%

28.4

Soft%

17.9

GB%

47.3

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.6

FB%

42.3

Pull%

35.2

Soft%

18.5

GB%

33.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Progressive Field is a hitter's haven (+24 for LHB)
Tarik Skubal stingy: only 0.42 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (100% of career HRs)
86°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (124)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.42 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.281↑ vs season .24734 PA · 15d

OPS

.616

ISO

.032

RBI

K-BB

2-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs DET	4	2	1	0	1	.500
06-09	vs NYY	3	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	vs NYY	4	0	0	1	0	—
06-07	@ TEX	3	2	0	0	0	.667
06-06	@ TEX	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-05	@ TEX	3	2	0	0	0	1.000
06-04	@ NYY	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	@ NYY	4	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL27PA	—	.334	6.2	38	3.0
🐾CHChangeup32PA	—	.221	3.6	62	15.6
🐾SISinkervL30PA	.040	.360	4.5	50	2.4
🐾SLSlidervL14PA	—	.310	20.0	70	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.334	0.0	6.2	38	3.0	56	27
vs RHP	.113	.326	1.7	10.0	48	1.7	81	77

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.240	0.0	3.8	58	7.9	81	29

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.040	.360	0.0	4.5	50	2.4	56	30
vs RHP	—	.368	0.0	0.0	47	3.1	81	25

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.310	0.0	20.0	70	20.0	56	14
vs RHP	.059	.331	0.0	13.3	47	4.3	81	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

124

vs RHB

vs SHB

Progressive Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Kwan.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 26 of 26 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.049

Barrel %

0.5

Hard Hit %

8.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.303

xBA

.247

Brl / PA %

0.40

Max EV (mph)

100.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

100.8

Avg EV on HRs

100.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

381

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

29.0°

Brl / PA %

0.40

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Tarik Skubal · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.334
Whiff%
3.0
HH%
6.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
38
CHChangeup
Use%
26
xwOBA
.221
Whiff%
15.6
HH%
3.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
62
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 32 PA this season.
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.360
Whiff%
2.4
HH%
4.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50

Career vs Tarik Skubal (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (4 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Tarik Skubal (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	39.0	10.4	36.4	46	.331	20.6
CHChangeup	25.7	3.2	25.0	71	.194	26.8
SISinker	18.7	0.0	56.0	43	.382	18.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.7	0.0	76.9	81	.217	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	33.3	66.7	33	.318	43.8	10
vs RHB	8.9	33.3	47	.333	15.9	57

CHChangeup26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	50.0	83	.154	22.2	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.0	28.0	68	.201	24.6	43

SISinker19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	62.5	38	.408	12.5	18
vs RHB	0.0	41.7	50	.361	17.4	19

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	100	.439	—	4
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	75.0	75	.175	28.0	19

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .384). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CLE)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Progressive Field (325/410/325 ft) · elev 660ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP186PA	.051	.287	.622	0.7%	1
🐾vs LHP82PA	.045	.221	.526	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home134PA	.065	.252	.580	1.0%	1
Away134PA	.034	.280	.603	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day93PA	.037	.225	.500	—	0
Night175PA	.056	.290	.643	0.7%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty79PA	.093	.308	.662	1
Runners On104PA	.024	.262	.602	0
RISP64PA	.021	.286	.653	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs110PA	.042	.263	.571	0
1 Out70PA	.051	.288	.617	0
2 Outs88PA	.057	.254	.599	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-013PA	.363	.727	1.035	1
1-015PA	.066	.333	.600	0
0-130PA	.035	.276	.509	0
2-05PA	.250	.500	.900	0
0-222PA	—	.091	.182	0
3-09PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-233PA	.060	.242	.424	0
2-242PA	.050	.200	.367	0
3-238PA	.084	.292	.792	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.