Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.2%

+882

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Yesavage (0.57 HR/9) · park 102

Batting #5Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.6%

+942

RBI 1+

33.1%

+202

Hits 1+

60.2%

-151

Hits 2+

18.1%

+451

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.1%

95% CI · 14.7–15.5%

+562

Fair odds

1st AB

3.4%

Through AB2

6.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+2%
Wind+14%
vs SP-17%
Contact+20%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+16%
SP Statcast-7%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·19 mph wind out to OF
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0323 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-17% (×0.83) · blended_proj

Park+2% (×1.02)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+16% (×1.16)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+475

High

+6990

Low

+355

Med

+710

Avg

+1601

🐾+475

Low +355🐾 HR money zoneHigh +6990

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+45102026-07-05vs LAAbook line

AwayBat 7thoff RHPSinker

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.2

Proj PA

250

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.194

wOBA

.337

wRC+

111

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.6

Hard%

37.9

FB%

38.9

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

18.1

GB%

44.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

35.5

FB%

39.0

Pull%

35.5

Soft%

24.2

GB%

44.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

18.2

Hard%

38.8

FB%

38.8

Pull%

45.9

Soft%

15.9

GB%

44.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

14.6

Hard%

36.0

FB%

37.3

Pull%

46.8

Soft%

17.1

GB%

43.6

Away

HR/FB

14.6

Hard%

39.7

FB%

40.3

Pull%

39.7

Soft%

19.0

GB%

45.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Trey Yesavage stingy: only 0.57 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (84% of career HRs)
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (7.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.57 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.184↓ vs season .23051 PA · 15d

OPS

.522

ISO

.122

RBI

K-BB

16-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs TOR	2	0	0	0	2	0	—
06-16	vs TOR	5	2	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 445ft · 109.0 EV · Sinker
06-14	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-13	vs TEX	4	1	1	2	0	2	1.000
💣 400ft · 102.5 EV · Changeup
06-12	vs TEX	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-10	@ TB	4	1	0	0	0	3	.250
06-09	@ TB	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-08	@ TB	4	0	0	0	0	3	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball81PA	.315	.355	16.7	42.2	52	35.6
🐾FSSplit-Finger16PA	—	.120	0.0	18.2	64	26.7
🐾SLSlider42PA	.073	.171	9.1	42.1	68	47.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.400	.436	50.0	100.0	25	42.4	72	15
vs RHP	.277	.340	13.6	36.4	55	30.3	82	73

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.120	0.0	18.2	64	26.7	82	17

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.151	0.0	44.4	67	41.4	72	17
vs RHP	.100	.156	15.4	53.8	69	44.0	82	31

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

102

vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Duran.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Confirmed0 of 37 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 31 of 37 career HRs (84%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.183

Barrel %

11.4

Hard Hit %

39.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.299

xBA

.230

Brl / PA %

7.20

Max EV (mph)

114.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

112.2

Avg EV on HRs

106.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

391

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

27.8°

Brl / PA %

7.20

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Yesavage · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
47
xwOBA
.355
Whiff%
35.6
HH%
42.2
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
52
FSSplit-Finger
Use%
32
xwOBA
.120
Whiff%
26.7
HH%
18.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
64
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 16 PA this season.
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.171
Whiff%
47.2
HH%
42.1
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
68
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 42 PA this season.

Career vs Trey Yesavage

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Trey Yesavage arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	47.0	3.2	35.5	40	.280	21.7
FSSplit-Finger	31.6	5.6	22.2	69	.274	15.2
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.4	7.4	44.4	82	.286	24.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball47% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	2.9	42.9	49	.319	30.3	54
vs RHB	3.7	25.9	30	.234	16.9	44

FSSplit-Finger32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.2	21.9	69	.292	16.9	49
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	75	.183	11.8	9

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	45.5	73	.262	15.4	14
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	43.8	88	.299	28.1	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .482). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CHChangeup1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 17 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP220PA	.213	.421	.685	11.7%	11
vs LHP73PA	.091	.318	.619	12.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home137PA	.190	.427	.697	12.7%	6
Away156PA	.175	.365	.641	10.8%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day117PA	.149	.355	.629	10.1%	4
Night176PA	.205	.422	.695	12.9%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty93PA	.095	.271	.518	2
Runners On106PA	.253	.495	.797	7
RISP70PA	.390	.661	1.018	7

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs115PA	.252	.486	.756	6
1 Out97PA	.141	.376	.706	3
2 Outs81PA	.131	.289	.499	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.