Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

19.1%

+424

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Jacob deGrom (RHP) (1.67 HR/9) · park 102

2+ RBI

14.5%

+590

RBI 1+

37.5%

+166

Hits 1+

59.8%

-149

Hits 2+

17.8%

+461

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

19.0%

95% CI · 18.6–19.4%

+426

Fair odds

1st AB

5.5%

Through AB2

10.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+2%
Temp+5%
vs SP+11%
Contact+14%
SP Contact+14%
Statcast+15%
SP Statcast+3%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Jacob deGrom (RHP)

·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0309 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+11% (×1.11) · blended_proj

Park+2% (×1.02)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+15% (×1.15)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games

Now

+425

High

+845

Low

+345

Med

+518

Avg

+560

+425

Low +345High +845

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.5

Proj PA

358

HR / PA

.035

ISO

.191

wOBA

.341

wRC+

112

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.9

Hard%

39.4

FB%

39.6

Pull%

44.1

Soft%

18.2

GB%

44.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.3

Hard%

41.3

FB%

42.2

Pull%

34.8

Soft%

21.7

GB%

40.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

18.8

Hard%

38.7

FB%

38.7

Pull%

47.6

Soft%

16.9

GB%

46.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

39.5

FB%

37.5

Pull%

45.7

Soft%

17.3

GB%

43.8

Away

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

39.1

FB%

41.3

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

18.5

GB%

44.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (84% of career HRs)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (7.0%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.67 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.4% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.196↓ vs season .22854 PA · 15d

OPS

.575

ISO

.157

RBI

K-BB

22-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-12	vs TEX	5	1	0	2	.200
06-10	@ TB	4	1	0	3	.250
06-09	@ TB	4	1	1	1	.250
06-08	@ TB	4	0	0	3	—
06-07	@ NYY	4	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ NYY	4	1	0	1	.250
06-04	vs BAL	4	0	0	1	—
06-03	vs BAL	5	1	0	2	.200

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR65PA	.310	.362	15.8	36.8	53	31.7
🐾SLSlidervR28PA	.111	.176	15.4	53.8	69	41.3
🐾CHChangeupvR35PA	.124	.267	8.3	33.3	75	35.6
🐾CUCurveballvR23PA	.137	.331	12.5	50.0	69	37.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.400	.436	50.0	100.0	25	43.8	71	15
vs RHPTONIGHT	.310	.362	15.8	36.8	53	31.7	77	65

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.151	0.0	44.4	67	41.4	71	17
vs RHPTONIGHT	.111	.176	15.4	53.8	69	41.3	77	28

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.124	.267	8.3	33.3	75	35.6	77	35

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.130	0.0	50.0	100	20.0	71	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.137	.331	12.5	50.0	69	37.1	77	23

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

102

vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Duran.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 31 of 37 career HRs (84%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.170

Barrel %

11.2

Hard Hit %

40.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.293

xBA

.228

Brl / PA %

7.00

Max EV (mph)

114.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

112.2

Avg EV on HRs

106.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

391

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

27.8°

Brl / PA %

7.00

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Jacob deGrom · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
42
xwOBA
.362
Whiff%
31.7
HH%
36.8
BRL%
15.8
Pull%
53
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
34
xwOBA
.176
Whiff%
41.3
HH%
53.8
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
69
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 28 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.267
Whiff%
35.6
HH%
33.3
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
75
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 35 PA this season.

Career vs Jacob deGrom (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.333

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Jacob deGrom (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	42.4	17.6	55.3	53	.391	21.9
SLSlider	34.4	1.6	32.3	63	.237	22.3
CHChangeup	15.1	4.3	34.8	74	.212	25.9
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	11.1	55.6	67	.223	42.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball42% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.9	50.8	51	.367	20.5	82
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.2	65.4	58	.442	24.4	38

SLSlider34% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.4	41.4	69	.255	19.1	51
vs RHB	0.0	24.2	58	.221	25.9	57

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	31.6	74	.204	29.5	32
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	25.0	50.0	75	.262	10.0	5

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY7% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	66.7	67	.327	33.3	9
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	33.3	67	.066	60.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 42.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .482). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CHChangeup1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP205PA	.197	.399	.658	11.5%	9
vs LHP71PA	.092	.323	.619	12.2%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home120PA	.164	.397	.655	12.6%	4
Away156PA	.175	.365	.641	10.8%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day113PA	.126	.330	.604	9.1%	3
Night163PA	.200	.413	.677	13.6%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty88PA	.062	.225	.464	1
Runners On96PA	.244	.488	.790	6
RISP62PA	.385	.654	1.009	6

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs111PA	.231	.462	.723	5
1 Out93PA	.111	.333	.656	2
2 Outs72PA	.147	.309	.517	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.037	.333	.655	0
1-028PA	.200	.440	.726	1
0-124PA	.334	.667	1.000	2
2-02PA	—	1.000	2.000	0
0-238PA	.079	.211	.342	0
3-06PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-245PA	.089	.178	.267	1
2-243PA	.023	.186	.349	0
3-233PA	.286	.524	1.039	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.