Home Run
14.3%
+597
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs Sean Sullivan (LHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 114
Batting #7Confirmed lineup
2+ RBI
11.9%
+741
RBI 1+
35.2%
+184
Hits 1+
58.1%
-139
Hits 2+
16.4%
+511
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter25.6%
95% CI · 25.1–26.1%
+291
Fair odds
1st AB
7.5%
Through AB2
14.9%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park+14%
- Temp+5%
- vs SP+34%
- Contact+19%
- Statcast+5%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Sean Sullivan (LHP)
- ·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
- ·91F game
- ·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0375 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)+34% (×1.34) · blended_proj
Park+14% (×1.14)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+5% (×1.05)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline-0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 13 games
Now
+595
High
+2000
Low
+405
Med
+700
Avg
+741
+595
Low +405High +2000
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
Recent — tap a game
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
11.8
Proj PA
287
HR / PA
.041
ISO
.195
wOBA
.329
wRC+
105
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
15.7
Hard%
33.9
FB%
41.5
Pull%
43.3
Soft%
16.5
GB%
41.5
🐾vs LHP
HR/FB
12.5
Hard%
34.2
FB%
43.2
Pull%
42.1
Soft%
18.4
GB%
35.1
vs RHP
HR/FB
17.1
Hard%
33.7
FB%
40.7
Pull%
43.8
Soft%
15.7
GB%
44.2
🐾Home
HR/FB
17.2
Hard%
37.9
FB%
46.0
Pull%
40.9
Soft%
15.2
GB%
39.7
Away
HR/FB
13.6
Hard%
29.5
FB%
36.7
Pull%
45.9
Soft%
18.0
GB%
43.3
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
4.0 🐾STRONG PLAY
- Las Vegas Ballpark mild HR boost (+14)
- Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (60% of career HRs)
- Hot streak: .862 OPS over last 15 days
- 92°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park boost (114)
- High barrels/PA (5.9%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.314↑ vs season .21954 PA · 15d
OPS
.862
ISO
.196
HR
2
RBI
6
K-BB
16-3
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 | vs COL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .250 |
| 06-10 | vs MIL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .500 |
| 06-09 | vs MIL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 💣 427ft · 102.5 EV · 4-Seamer | ||||||||
| 06-08 | vs MIL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1.000 |
| 💣 391ft · 101.5 EV · Changeup | ||||||||
| 06-07 | @ HOU | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
| 06-06 | @ HOU | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .333 |
| 06-05 | @ HOU | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .250 |
| 06-04 | @ CHC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .333 |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC10PA | .750 | .453 | 20.0 | 22.2 | 50 | 30.4 |
| CHvL7PA | .429 | .614 | 28.6 | 71.4 | 71 | 29.4 |
| SIvL7PA | — | .202 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 75 | 28.6 |
| FFvL23PA | .137 | .186 | 6.7 | 40.0 | 47 | 32.7 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FCCutter
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | 1.000 | .450 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 43 | 25.0 | 113 | 8 |
CHChangeup
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT | .429 | .614 | 28.6 | 71.4 | 71 | 29.4 | 108 | 7 |
| vs RHP | — | .240 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50 | 33.3 | 113 | 7 |
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHPTONIGHT | — | .202 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 75 | 28.6 | 108 | 7 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .028 | .296 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 53 | 11.3 | 113 | 38 |
FF4-Seam Fastball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHPTONIGHT | .137 | .186 | 6.7 | 40.0 | 47 | 32.7 | 108 | 23 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .344 | .331 | 15.0 | 55.0 | 40 | 22.4 | 113 | 35 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
95
🐾vs RHB
114
vs SHB
104
Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Gelof.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Tonight: Batting #7Confirmed0 of 5 HRs · 0%
🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 3 of 5 career HRs (60%).
1
·
3
2
🐾
3
·
4
·
5
·
2
6
🐾
7
🐾
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#2#6
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.
Season Statcast
ISO
.196
Barrel %
8.7
Hard Hit %
40.2
Pull % (HRs)
67
xwOBA
.287
xBA
.219
Brl / PA %
5.90
Max EV (mph)
108.1
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
105.6
Avg EV on HRs
103.3
Avg HR Distance (ft)
396
HRs in sample
6
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/6
Crushed (105+ mph)
1/6
Avg LA on HRs
29.0°
Brl / PA %
5.90
Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .512). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft
6 HRs this season
vs RHP 5vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FC🐾Cutter2
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2
FSSplitter1
SLSlider1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP136PA | .202 | .460 | .779 | 7.4% | 6 |
| 🐾vs LHP51PA | .183 | .469 | .769 | 10.3% | 2 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home91PA | .221 | .512 | .827 | 10.3% | 5 |
| Away96PA | .173 | .414 | .727 | 6.2% | 3 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day50PA | .196 | .522 | .902 | 7.0% | 2 |
| 🐾Night137PA | .197 | .441 | .730 | 8.9% | 6 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty65PA | .246 | .579 | .994 | 3 |
| Runners On75PA | .129 | .386 | .674 | 2 |
| RISP44PA | .100 | .400 | .733 | 1 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs65PA | .245 | .475 | .729 | 4 |
| 1 Out62PA | .178 | .482 | .853 | 2 |
| 2 Outs60PA | .161 | .429 | .746 | 2 |
Count
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-023PA | .095 | .333 | .551 | 0 |
| 1-012PA | .250 | .500 | .750 | 1 |
| 0-116PA | .187 | .625 | 1.062 | 1 |
| 2-04PA | .333 | 1.000 | 1.750 | 0 |
| 0-215PA | .200 | .333 | .467 | 1 |
| 3-02PA | — | — | 1.000 | 0 |
| 1-227PA | .148 | .333 | .519 | 1 |
| 2-230PA | .134 | .267 | .400 | 1 |
| 3-226PA | .444 | .722 | 1.222 | 2 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Fri.