Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.0%

+671

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (0.93 HR/9) · park 114

Batting #7Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.1%

+799

RBI 1+

34.5%

+190

Hits 1+

58.7%

-142

Hits 2+

16.9%

+493

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

16.1%

95% CI · 15.7–16.5%

+522

Fair odds

1st AB

3.0%

Through AB2

6.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
vs SP-35%
Contact+19%
SP Contact-12%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0400 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

SP Statcast allowed-0% (×1.00)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+530

High

+5485

Low

+390

Med

+528

Avg

+933

🐾+530

Low +390🐾 HR money zoneHigh +5485

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+5202026-06-16vs PITbook line

HomeBat 6thoff RHPSweeper

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.7

Proj PA

192

HR / PA

.045

ISO

.207

wOBA

.330

wRC+

108

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.5

Hard%

34.1

FB%

38.6

Pull%

44.9

Soft%

16.2

GB%

42.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

34.7

FB%

39.6

Pull%

46.9

Soft%

18.4

GB%

37.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

18.2

Hard%

33.9

FB%

38.3

Pull%

44.1

Soft%

15.3

GB%

44.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

20.5

Hard%

38.6

FB%

39.8

Pull%

44.6

Soft%

14.9

GB%

40.8

Away

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

27.3

FB%

36.9

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

18.2

GB%

44.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (60% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.129 OPS over last 15 days
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (114)
High barrels/PA (5.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.352↑ vs season .22259 PA · 15d

OPS

1.129

ISO

.370

RBI

K-BB

14-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs PIT	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 363ft · 96.8 EV · Slider
06-16	vs PIT	3	3	1	2	1	0	2.000
💣 360ft · 98.4 EV · Sweeper
06-15	vs PIT	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-14	vs COL	4	2	0	0	0	1	.750
06-13	vs COL	4	2	1	2	0	0	1.250
💣 400ft · 96.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-12	vs COL	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-10	vs MIL	4	1	0	0	0	2	.500
06-09	vs MIL	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 427ft · 102.5 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker47PA	.023	.314	0.0	30.8	59	15.6
🐾CUCurveball19PA	.125	.198	0.0	50.0	40	57.1
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball61PA	.304	.266	10.8	51.4	43	31.3
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.235	0.0	25.0	75	21.4	132	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.024	.326	0.0	32.4	57	14.0	129	45

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.200	.199	0.0	33.3	67	44.4	129	6

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.261	.193	6.2	43.8	50	32.1	132	24
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.314	.315	14.3	52.4	38	24.2	129	39

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Gelof.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #7Projected0 of 5 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 3 of 5 career HRs (60%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.224

Barrel %

7.6

Hard Hit %

42.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.288

xBA

.222

Brl / PA %

5.20

Max EV (mph)

108.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.6

Avg EV on HRs

103.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

396

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/6

Avg LA on HRs

29.0°

Brl / PA %

5.20

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinker
Use%
26
xwOBA
.314
Whiff%
15.6
HH%
30.8
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
59
CUCurveball
Use%
25
xwOBA
.198
Whiff%
57.1
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
40
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
24
xwOBA
.266
Whiff%
31.3
HH%
51.4
BRL%
10.8
Pull%
43
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 61 PA this season.

Career vs José Soriano

🐾 Tonight's matchup

1.000AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

2.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

José Soriano arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	25.7	9.0	49.4	69	.395	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.4	—	26.2	—	.240	27.2
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	17.0	47.1	51	.412	17.5
FSSplit-Finger	20.1	2.2	18.2	73	.194	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	61.5	72	.481	4.2	49
vs RHB	7.7	38.5	67	.318	25.0	53

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	48.5	58	.453	15.7	52
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.2	40

FSSplit-Finger20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	19.4	78	.195	24.7	61
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.1	22.2	56	.190	26.1	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .512). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter2

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

FSSplitter1

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.0 games · 8 PA (4 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP156PA	.223	.503	.838	6.4%	8
vs LHP56PA	.226	.528	.855	9.5%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home116PA	.266	.587	.938	8.1%	8
Away96PA	.173	.414	.727	6.2%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day55PA	.200	.540	.940	6.5%	2
🐾Night157PA	.233	.500	.810	7.6%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty74PA	.282	.641	1.087	4
Runners On88PA	.145	.410	.701	3
RISP51PA	.085	.383	.710	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs70PA	.318	.576	.855	6
1 Out72PA	.215	.569	.986	3
2 Outs70PA	.139	.385	.685	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.