Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

14.3%

+597

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Gusto (RHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 131

Batting #1Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.9%

+741

RBI 1+

35.2%

+184

Hits 1+

64.8%

-185

Hits 2+

22.7%

+341

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.7%

95% CI · 12.3–13.1%

+687

Fair odds

1st AB

3.3%

Through AB2

6.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
Contact-9%
SP Statcast+3%
Discipline+2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ryan Gusto (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0258 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+0% (×1.00) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+2% (×1.02)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games

Now

+750

High

+1240

Low

+525

Med

+825

Avg

+817

+750

Low +525High +1240

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.8

Proj PA

357

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.160

wOBA

.329

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.1

Hard%

37.0

FB%

41.3

Pull%

40.9

Soft%

13.8

GB%

39.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

26.5

FB%

33.3

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

17.6

GB%

39.4

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

7.9

Hard%

39.5

FB%

43.2

Pull%

40.8

Soft%

12.9

GB%

39.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

6.1

Hard%

34.5

FB%

40.2

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

11.9

GB%

39.0

Away

HR/FB

9.8

Hard%

39.2

FB%

42.3

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

15.5

GB%

39.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (50% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .858 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (131)
High barrels/PA (5.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.293↑ vs season .25746 PA · 15d

OPS

.858

ISO

.195

RBI

K-BB

10-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ MIL	5	2	2	0	2	.800
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	0	2	—
06-10	@ TOR	4	2	1	1	0	.500
06-09	@ TOR	4	2	1	0	0	.750
06-08	@ TOR	3	1	1	1	1	.667
06-07	vs CHW	3	1	1	1	2	.333
06-06	vs CHW	3	0	0	1	1	—
06-05	vs CHW	1	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR73PA	.087	.269	9.4	45.3	51	13.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.428	0.0	37.5	50	26.3	141	14
vs RHPTONIGHT	.087	.269	9.4	45.3	51	13.6	72	73

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Stott.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Projected3 of 6 HRs · 50%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 3 of 6 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.158

Barrel %

7.2

Hard Hit %

41.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.312

xBA

.257

Brl / PA %

5.40

Max EV (mph)

111.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.7

Avg EV on HRs

103.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

390

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/5

Avg LA on HRs

33.8°

Brl / PA %

5.40

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Gusto · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seamervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.269
Whiff%
13.6
HH%
45.3
BRL%
9.4
Pull%
51
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 73 PA this season.

Ryan Gusto (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seamer	31.1	20.0	60.0	0	.410	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seamer31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	50.0	0	.453	14.3	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .400). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider2

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP197PA	.158	.375	.635	7.5%	5
vs LHP44PA	.162	.459	.854	5.3%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home119PA	.132	.387	.712	6.1%	2
Away122PA	.182	.391	.637	8.0%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day96PA	.168	.404	.696	9.2%	3
Night145PA	.152	.379	.659	5.4%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty87PA	.061	.329	.639	1
Runners On106PA	.242	.495	.803	4
RISP60PA	.313	.686	1.127	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs76PA	.143	.300	.503	1
1 Out76PA	.099	.338	.614	1
2 Outs89PA	.225	.513	.873	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Mon.