Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.4%

+548

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Manaea (1.10 HR/9) · park 131

Batting #7Projected lineup

2+ RBI

12.5%

+701

RBI 1+

35.7%

+180

Hits 1+

64.3%

-181

Hits 2+

22.2%

+351

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.0%

95% CI · 12.7–13.4%

+668

Fair odds

1st AB

3.7%

Through AB2

7.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
Temp+5%
vs SP+11%
Contact-12%
SP Contact+5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·88F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0256 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+11% (×1.11) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-1% (×0.99)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+700

High

+1090

Low

+385

Med

+680

Avg

+756

+700

Low +385High +1090

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.1

Proj PA

254

HR / PA

.032

ISO

.164

wOBA

.328

wRC+

105

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.5

Hard%

34.5

FB%

41.2

Pull%

38.6

Soft%

15.5

GB%

40.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

19.6

FB%

32.7

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

23.2

GB%

43.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

38.5

FB%

43.5

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

13.5

GB%

39.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

4.4

Hard%

32.2

FB%

38.8

Pull%

38.1

Soft%

16.1

GB%

42.2

Away

HR/FB

7.9

Hard%

36.3

FB%

43.2

Pull%

39.0

Soft%

15.1

GB%

38.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (50% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .864 OPS over last 15 days
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (131)
High barrels/PA (5.5%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.319↑ vs season .25453 PA · 15d

OPS

.864

ISO

.149

RBI

K-BB

8-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs MIA	4	2	0	0	0	.500
06-16	vs MIA	4	1	2	0	0	.750
06-15	vs MIA	2	0	0	2	0	—
06-14	@ MIL	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-13	@ MIL	5	2	2	0	2	.800
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	0	2	—
06-10	@ TOR	4	2	1	1	0	.500
06-09	@ TOR	4	2	1	0	0	.750

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball84PA	.081	.296	7.8	43.1	50	18.2
🐾STSweeper16PA	.134	.220	7.7	8.3	54	23.1
🐾SISinker34PA	.156	.355	9.4	37.9	68	12.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.418	0.0	33.3	44	22.7	137	15
vs RHP	.085	.272	9.1	43.6	51	13.8	76	76

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.143	0.0	12.5	50	33.3	137	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.286	.298	20.0	20.0	60	13.3	76	8

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.125	.383	12.5	37.5	63	0.0	137	9
vs RHP	.260	.348	8.3	41.7	70	16.3	76	28

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Stott.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #7Projected0 of 6 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 3 of 6 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.158

Barrel %

7.2

Hard Hit %

40.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.312

xBA

.254

Brl / PA %

5.50

Max EV (mph)

111.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.7

Avg EV on HRs

103.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

390

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/5

Avg LA on HRs

33.8°

Brl / PA %

5.50

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Manaea · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.296
Whiff%
18.2
HH%
43.1
BRL%
7.8
Pull%
50
STSweeper
Use%
32
xwOBA
.220
Whiff%
23.1
HH%
8.3
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
54
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 16 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
19
xwOBA
.355
Whiff%
12.5
HH%
37.9
BRL%
9.4
Pull%
68

Career vs Sean Manaea

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

2.667

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Sean Manaea arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	37.2	11.5	51.0	40	.330	18.8
STSweeper	32.2	9.5	28.9	86	.279	20.2
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.7	2.5	32.5	55	.326	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.3	50.0	50	.376	23.1	20
vs RHB	12.5	52.5	38	.316	18.0	64

STSweeper32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	85	.202	26.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	24.1	86	.334	15.0	43

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	50	.264	27.3	23
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	60	.376	23.1	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .400). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider2

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP209PA	.159	.381	.650	7.6%	5
vs LHP47PA	.150	.450	.841	4.9%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home131PA	.138	.397	.730	6.5%	2
Away125PA	.178	.390	.638	7.8%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day103PA	.156	.406	.707	8.5%	3
Night153PA	.159	.384	.669	6.0%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty92PA	.058	.337	.663	1
Runners On113PA	.247	.495	.801	4
RISP64PA	.334	.704	1.148	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs79PA	.137	.301	.509	1
1 Out83PA	.118	.368	.669	1
2 Outs94PA	.212	.494	.845	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.