Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.9%

+814

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joey Estes (RHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

10.0%

+898

RBI 1+

33.5%

+199

Hits 1+

64.5%

-182

Hits 2+

22.3%

+348

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.4%

95% CI · 12.1–12.8%

+703

Fair odds

1st AB

3.4%

Through AB2

7.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Temp+5%
vs SP+40%
Contact-3%
Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Estes (RHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·87F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0254 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+40% (×1.40) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-2% (×0.98)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games

Now

+815

High

+4405

Low

+460

Med

+785

Avg

+1028

+815

Low +460High +4405

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.9

Proj PA

314

HR / PA

.025

ISO

.138

wOBA

.318

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.4

Hard%

32.8

FB%

36.5

Pull%

47.4

Soft%

15.6

GB%

41.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

35.4

FB%

27.1

Pull%

31.3

Soft%

16.7

GB%

50.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

14.0

Hard%

31.9

FB%

39.6

Pull%

52.8

Soft%

15.3

GB%

38.9

Home

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

39.8

FB%

38.8

Pull%

44.7

Soft%

12.6

GB%

40.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

24.7

FB%

33.7

Pull%

50.6

Soft%

19.1

GB%

42.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

87°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (4.9%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.244↓ vs season .25550 PA · 15d

OPS

.750

ISO

.146

RBI

K-BB

7-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ ATH	3	2	0	0	1	0	1.000
06-11	vs CHC	3	1	0	0	2	1	.667
06-10	vs CHC	4	2	1	2	0	1	1.250
💣 383ft · 97.0 EV · Changeup
06-09	vs CHC	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-07	vs MIL	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs MIL	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-05	vs MIL	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-03	@ LAA	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
SISinkervR16PA	.363	.465	8.3	41.7	42	—
STSweepervR17PA	—	.358	0.0	40.0	60	14.8
FF4-Seam FastballvR77PA	.288	.382	12.7	49.1	55	8.6
SLSlidervR22PA	.250	.372	18.2	54.5	82	38.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.366	0.0	35.7	50	0.0	45	16
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.363	.465	8.3	41.7	42	0.0	127	16

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.408	0.0	0.0	78	31.6	45	11
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.358	0.0	40.0	60	14.8	127	17

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.357	0.0	35.7	36	19.4	45	21
vs RHPTONIGHT	.288	.382	12.7	49.1	55	8.6	127	77

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.145	0.0	40.0	80	43.8	45	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.250	.372	18.2	54.5	82	38.1	127	22

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rumfield.

Season Statcast

ISO

.160

Barrel %

6.8

Hard Hit %

35.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.332

xBA

.255

Brl / PA %

4.90

Max EV (mph)

107.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.2

Avg EV on HRs

105.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

415

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/7

Avg LA on HRs

29.7°

Brl / PA %

4.90

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .492). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP202PA	.217	.503	.874	8.5%	8
vs LHP65PA	—	.241	.564	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home136PA	.186	.449	.802	7.0%	5
🐾Away131PA	.139	.426	.792	6.0%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day88PA	.178	.411	.763	7.1%	3
🐾Night179PA	.156	.450	.813	6.2%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty94PA	.183	.500	.904	3
Runners On118PA	.120	.360	.699	2
RISP71PA	.087	.368	.762	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs91PA	.153	.397	.738	3
1 Out79PA	.206	.559	.989	3
2 Outs97PA	.138	.379	.699	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-047PA	.195	.478	.776	2
1-011PA	.272	.636	1.000	0
0-131PA	.032	.290	.548	0
2-06PA	.500	.833	1.167	1
0-225PA	.042	.125	.245	0
3-08PA	.500	1.500	2.500	0
1-231PA	.034	.167	.328	0
2-241PA	.171	.488	.805	2
3-231PA	.150	.400	.916	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.