Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

22.0%

+355

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Griffin Jax (RHP) (1.62 HR/9) · park 127

2+ RBI

16.1%

+522

RBI 1+

39.0%

+157

Hits 1+

53.2%

-114

Hits 2+

12.6%

+696

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

18.3%

95% CI · 17.9–18.7%

+446

Fair odds

1st AB

4.4%

Through AB2

8.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+27%
vs SP-16%
Contact-18%
SP Contact+13%
Statcast+17%
SP Statcast+2%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Griffin Jax (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 127)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0394 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+27% (×1.27)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-18% (×0.82)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+17% (×1.17)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games

Now

+355

High

+1235

Low

+330

Med

+650

Avg

+668

+355

Low +330High +1235

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.2

Proj PA

208

HR / PA

.040

ISO

.179

wOBA

.314

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

22.5

FB%

47.5

Pull%

48.0

Soft%

21.6

GB%

41.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.6

FB%

52.9

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

23.5

GB%

35.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

25.0

FB%

44.8

Pull%

52.9

Soft%

20.6

GB%

44.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

20.8

FB%

44.7

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

18.8

GB%

38.3

Away

HR/FB

7.4

Hard%

24.1

FB%

50.0

Pull%

57.4

Soft%

24.1

GB%

44.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Angel Stadium is a hitter's haven (+27 for RHB)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #5 (100% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .866 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (127)
High barrels/PA (7.7%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.62 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.281↑ vs season .19434 PA · 15d

OPS

.866

ISO

.282

RBI

K-BB

9-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs TB	4	2	0	1	0	1	.750
06-10	vs HOU	2	2	1	1	0	0	2.500
💣 423ft · 107.7 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	vs HOU	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-08	vs HOU	4	1	0	2	0	2	.500
06-06	@ LAD	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ LAD	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-03	vs COL	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-01	vs COL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾STSweepervR10PA	—	.120	0.0	28.6	86	28.1
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR30PA	.280	.480	27.8	50.0	50	24.4
🐾CHChangeupvR8PA	—	.138	0.0	25.0	100	46.2
🐾SISinkervR27PA	—	.319	5.6	33.3	67	17.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.120	0.0	28.6	86	28.1	63	10

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.198	0.0	42.9	50	11.1	91	15
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.280	.480	27.8	50.0	50	24.4	63	30

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.091	.225	25.0	37.5	50	37.5	91	11
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.138	0.0	25.0	100	46.2	63	8

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.319	5.6	33.3	67	17.5	63	27

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches O'Hoppe.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 6 of 6 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.102

Barrel %

11.8

Hard Hit %

38.2

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.283

xBA

.194

Brl / PA %

7.70

Max EV (mph)

114.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

114.3

Avg EV on HRs

114.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

427

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/1

Avg LA on HRs

24.0°

Brl / PA %

7.70

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Griffin Jax · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

STSweepervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.120
Whiff%
28.1
HH%
28.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
86
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 10 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.480
Whiff%
24.4
HH%
50.0
BRL%
27.8
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.138
Whiff%
46.2
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100

Career vs Griffin Jax (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Griffin Jax (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper	24.9	9.1	38.1	68	.289	22.4
FF4-Seam Fastball	20.6	23.8	47.6	52	.454	14.3
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.4	3.3	33.3	53	.296	28.2
SISinker	19.6	4.2	41.7	71	.374	21.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	62.5	75	.520	7.7	12
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	64	.209	27.8	26

FF4-Seam Fastball21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	46	.402	16.7	18
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	37.5	62.5	63	.531	11.8	12

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	26.9	46	.299	27.6	36
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	75.0	100	.278	30.0	7

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	63	.310	37.5	13
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	43.8	75	.417	0.0	20

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .473). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP112PA	.122	.316	.595	12.5%	3
vs LHP47PA	.070	.349	.689	7.7%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home85PA	.080	.307	.605	12.0%	1
Away74PA	.136	.348	.645	9.8%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day34PA	.172	.517	.929	22.7%	1
🐾Night125PA	.089	.277	.543	7.9%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty46PA	.154	.359	.685	2
Runners On77PA	.074	.328	.657	0
RISP44PA	.053	.342	.706	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs60PA	.096	.269	.540	1
1 Out44PA	.027	.135	.362	0
2 Outs55PA	.173	.519	.901	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-019PA	—	.333	.649	0
1-010PA	.700	1.100	1.500	2
0-116PA	.062	.250	.438	0
2-02PA	—	.500	1.000	0
0-216PA	—	.062	.125	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-225PA	.042	.125	.245	0
2-225PA	.160	.280	.400	1
3-223PA	.091	.455	1.150	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.