Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
10.8%
+821
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Zack Wheeler (RHP) (1.12 HR/9) · park 92
Batting #1Projected lineup
2+ RBI
10.0%
+903
RBI 1+
33.4%
+199
Hits 1+
51.7%
-107
Hits 2+
11.6%
+766
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
9.3%
95% CI · 9.0–9.6%
+977
Fair odds
1st AB
2.3%
Through AB2
4.3%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
Park-8%
vs SP-13%
Statcast+3%
SP Statcast-1%
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0279 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-13% (×0.87) · blended_proj
Park-8% (×0.92)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+0% (×1.00)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+3% (×1.03)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)
SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 14 games
Now
+990
High
+1200
Low
+555
Med
+822
Avg
+832
+990
Low +555High +1200
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
7.2
Proj PA
274
HR / PA
.026
ISO
.150
wOBA
.308
wRC+
93
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
6.8
Hard%
29.8
FB%
48.8
Pull%
41.3
Soft%
16.5
GB%
37.2
vs LHP
HR/FB
5.3
Hard%
27.8
FB%
52.8
Pull%
44.4
Soft%
13.9
GB%
36.1
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
7.5
Hard%
30.6
FB%
47.1
Pull%
40.0
Soft%
17.6
GB%
37.6
Home
HR/FB
3.7
Hard%
28.6
FB%
48.2
Pull%
41.1
Soft%
17.9
GB%
33.9
🐾Away
HR/FB
9.4
Hard%
30.8
FB%
49.2
Pull%
41.5
Soft%
15.4
GB%
40.0
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
🏟Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
🔥Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
📍Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (57% of career HRs)
·Park drag (92)
·High barrels/PA (4.7%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.188→ vs season .18720 PA · 15d
OPS
.725
ISO
.187
HR
0
RBI
2
K-BB
5-3
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-13
@ PIT
4
1
0
0
0
2
.500
06-09
vs ARI
1
1
0
1
2
0
2.000
06-07
vs TB
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-06
vs TB
2
0
0
0
0
2
—
06-03
@ WSH
1
0
0
0
1
0
—
06-01
@ WSH
4
1
0
1
0
1
.500
05-31
@ NYM
4
0
0
0
0
0
—
05-29
@ NYM
5
1
0
0
0
3
.200
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR45PA
.105
.267
9.5
52.4
43
30.8
🐾SISinkervR34PA
.207
.421
3.4
27.6
59
9.7
🐾STSweepervR12PA
.300
.258
14.3
42.9
71
32.0
🐾FSSplit-Finger
—
—
—
—
—
—
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.368
.404
33.3
50.0
50
26.1
84
24
vs RHPTONIGHT
.105
.267
9.5
52.4
43
30.8
95
45
SISinker
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
.111
.306
0.0
12.5
50
11.8
84
13
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT
.207
.421
3.4
27.6
59
9.7
95
34
STSweeper
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT
.300
.258
14.3
42.9
71
32.0
95
12
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
131
🐾vs RHB
92
vs SHB
111
Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Norby.
Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Zack Wheeler · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Neutral matchup
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.267
Whiff%
30.8
HH%
52.4
BRL%
9.5
Pull%
43
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 45 PA this season.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.421
Whiff%
9.7
HH%
27.6
BRL%
3.4
Pull%
59
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweepervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.258
Whiff%
32.0
HH%
42.9
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
71
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 12 PA this season.
Career vs Zack Wheeler (RHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)
OPS
.666
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
1-0
Zack Wheeler (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY
38.9
9.1
43.2
46
.244
22.7
SISinker
16.7
10.3
35.9
49
.321
14.3
STSweeper
13.5
5.9
23.5
71
.341
17.1
FSSplit-Finger
12.7
4.2
29.2
75
.257
19.6
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY39% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT
8.8
41.2
47
.258
19.1
53
vs RHB
10.0
50.0
40
.208
31.0
20
SISinker17% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
0.0
0.0
25
.117
15.4
6
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT
11.4
40.0
51
.354
13.6
39
STSweeper14% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
14.3
57.1
71
.633
0.0
8
vs RHB
0.0
0.0
70
.204
20.7
17
FSSplit-Finger13% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
5.3
31.6
74
.326
9.4
22
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
0.0
20.0
80
.119
42.9
11
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .399). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft
5 HRs this season
vs RHP 3vs LHP 2
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2
SLSlider1
SISinker1
STSweeper1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
8
games since last HR
25
PAs since last HR
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾vs RHP146PA
.133
.367
.689
6.7%
3
vs LHP67PA
.132
.283
.611
18.4%
1
Location
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Home108PA
.102
.307
.659
9.8%
1
🐾Away105PA
.161
.376
.671
10.4%
3
Time
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾Day93PA
.078
.234
.524
11.1%
0
Night120PA
.173
.423
.773
9.5%
4
Base State
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
Bases Empty70PA
.167
.417
.774
2
Runners On103PA
.116
.349
.699
1
RISP53PA
.125
.375
.790
1
Outs
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0 Outs64PA
.125
.232
.451
2
1 Out77PA
.136
.424
.801
1
2 Outs72PA
.136
.356
.717
1
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Mon.
