Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.4%

+968

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Yesavage (0.57 HR/9) · park 102

Batting #1Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.2%

+993

RBI 1+

32.7%

+206

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)

100wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

—wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.9%

95% CI · 5.6–6.2%

+1593

Fair odds

1st AB

1.3%

Through AB2

2.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+2%
Wind+14%
vs SP-17%
Lineup+3%
Contact-9%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast-8%
SP Statcast-7%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·19 mph wind out to OF
·Big bats hitting behind
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0193 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-17% (×0.83) · blended_proj

Park+2% (×1.02)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-8% (×0.92)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 7 games

Now

+610

High

+760

Low

+380

Med

+695

Avg

+649

+610

Low +380High +760

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.7

Proj PA

HR / PA

.023

ISO

.134

wOBA

.309

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

36.4

FB%

41.4

Pull%

46.6

Soft%

11.4

GB%

42.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

18.2

FB%

70.0

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

27.3

GB%

30.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

39.0

FB%

37.7

Pull%

46.8

Soft%

9.1

GB%

44.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

35.7

FB%

48.8

Pull%

38.1

Soft%

11.9

GB%

36.6

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

37.0

FB%

34.8

Pull%

54.3

Soft%

10.9

GB%

47.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Trey Yesavage stingy: only 0.57 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Hot streak: .460 OPS over last 15 days
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.57 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.143↓ vs season .25039 PA · 15d

OPS

.460

ISO

.086

RBI

K-BB

7-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs TOR	4	0	0	1	0	—
06-16	vs TOR	1	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	vs TEX	3	1	1	0	0	.333
06-12	vs TEX	4	1	0	1	0	.500
06-10	@ TB	3	0	0	1	0	—
06-09	@ TB	4	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	@ TB	4	1	0	0	1	.250
06-07	@ NYY	4	1	0	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball30PA	.186	.420	16.0	58.3	68	8.9
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider12PA	—	.307	0.0	14.3	67	26.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.192	.420	17.4	60.9	65	9.1	100	30

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.170	0.0	0.0	60	9.1	—	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.376	0.0	50.0	75	35.3	100	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Gasper.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Confirmed1 of 1 HRs · 100%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Yesavage · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
47
xwOBA
.420
Whiff%
8.9
HH%
58.3
BRL%
16.0
Pull%
68
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FSSplit-Finger
Use%
32
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.307
Whiff%
26.9
HH%
14.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67

Trey Yesavage arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	47.0	3.2	35.5	40	.280	21.7
FSSplit-Finger	31.6	5.6	22.2	69	.274	15.2
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.4	7.4	44.4	82	.286	24.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball47% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	2.9	42.9	49	.319	30.3	54
vs RHB	3.7	25.9	30	.234	16.9	44

FSSplit-Finger32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.2	21.9	69	.292	16.9	49
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	75	.183	11.8	9

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	45.5	73	.262	15.4	14
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	43.8	88	.299	28.1	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .395). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP82PA	.082	.370	.724	6.3%	0
vs LHP17PA	—	.125	.250	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home50PA	.119	.405	.793	11.1%	0
Away49PA	.021	.255	.500	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day29PA	.077	.346	.632	—	0
Night70PA	.063	.317	.646	7.5%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty31PA	.069	.241	.467
Runners On38PA	.059	.265	.508
RISP22PA	.100	.350	.623

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs41PA	.115	.486	.936
1 Out30PA	.035	.321	.621
2 Outs28PA	.038	.115	.258

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.