Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

13.2%

+658

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Nick Martinez (RHP) (0.70 HR/9) · park 119

2+ RBI

11.3%

+788

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

68.1%

-213

Hits 2+

26.2%

+282

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

21.4%

95% CI · 20.9–21.8%

+368

Fair odds

1st AB

5.3%

Through AB2

10.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+19%
vs SP-16%
Contact+14%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast+11%
SP Statcast-4%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Nick Martinez (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 119)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0435 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+19% (×1.19)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+11% (×1.11)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 17 games · 1 HR

Now

+355

High

+1065

Low

+370

Med

+500

Avg

+560

🐾+355

Low +370🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1065

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+4252026-06-06vs LAAbook line

HomeBat 2ndoff RHPChangeup

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

16.6

Proj PA

358

HR / PA

.046

ISO

.220

wOBA

.352

wRC+

124

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.5

Hard%

37.5

FB%

42.1

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

18.5

GB%

36.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

39.6

FB%

39.6

Pull%

35.8

Soft%

9.4

GB%

37.7

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

17.1

Hard%

36.8

FB%

42.9

Pull%

36.2

Soft%

21.5

GB%

36.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

38.1

FB%

46.7

Pull%

35.2

Soft%

14.3

GB%

32.4

Away

HR/FB

19.0

Hard%

36.9

FB%

37.8

Pull%

36.9

Soft%

22.5

GB%

40.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is a hitter's haven (+19 for RHB)
Nick Martinez stingy: only 0.70 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (SI, FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #6 (38% of career HRs)
Park boost (119)
High barrels/PA (7.1%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.70 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.208↓ vs season .27759 PA · 15d

OPS

.650

ISO

.188

RBI

K-BB

14-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ CHW	4	1	0	0	1	2	.250
06-12	@ CHW	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-11	@ PIT	6	2	0	0	0	1	.333
06-10	@ PIT	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-09	@ PIT	5	1	1	3	0	0	.800
💣 410ft · 105.0 EV · Cutter
06-06	vs LAA	5	1	1	2	0	2	.800
💣 394ft · 100.6 EV · Changeup
06-05	vs LAA	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-04	@ ARI	4	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR60PA	.185	.383	6.2	52.1	60	10.1
🐾CHChangeupvR9PA	.375	.526	28.6	57.1	57	22.2
🐾FCCuttervR17PA	.571	.447	15.4	38.5	39	15.6
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR61PA	.196	.293	12.5	52.5	43	23.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.440	16.7	66.7	33	0.0	117	8
vs RHPTONIGHT	.185	.383	6.2	52.1	60	10.1	132	60

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.143	.288	0.0	16.7	50	25.0	117	15
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.375	.526	28.6	57.1	57	22.2	132	9

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.428	.446	16.7	83.3	67	20.0	117	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.571	.447	15.4	38.5	39	15.6	132	17

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.080	.383	5.3	57.9	42	20.8	117	28
vs RHPTONIGHT	.196	.293	12.5	52.5	43	23.0	132	61

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

120

🐾vs RHB

119

vs SHB

119

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Pages.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 3 of 8 career HRs (38%).

🐾

Hot spots:#6#5#8

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.229

Barrel %

9.7

Hard Hit %

47.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.346

xBA

.277

Brl / PA %

7.10

Max EV (mph)

109.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.7

Avg EV on HRs

103.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

386

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/9

Avg LA on HRs

27.8°

Brl / PA %

7.10

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Nick Martinez · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.383
Whiff%
10.1
HH%
52.1
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
60
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.526
Whiff%
22.2
HH%
57.1
BRL%
28.6
Pull%
57
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.447
Whiff%
15.6
HH%
38.5
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
39
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Nick Martinez (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Nick Martinez (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.4	6.5	40.7	59	.337	21.9
CHChangeup	28.0	1.4	15.0	61	.204	19.6
FCCutter	19.5	8.1	25.4	61	.364	19.0
FF4-Seam Fastball	10.5	10.8	57.1	60	.440	9.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	63.6	52	.299	25.0	47
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	31.7	63	.366	15.8	68

CHChangeup28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	1.8	19.6	61	.221	18.8	72
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	6.2	63	.157	16.4	27

FCCutter20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.7	22.2	67	.340	20.0	50
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	37.9	52	.402	12.5	31

FF4-Seam Fastball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.0	52.2	74	.410	12.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.1	50.0	36	.504	4.2	17

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .466). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAD)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Dodger Stadium (330/395/330 ft) · elev 512ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 8vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker3

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

KCKnuckle-Curve1

CUCurveball1

EP1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 20 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP223PA	.226	.512	.844	9.1%	12
vs LHP73PA	.239	.493	.794	8.9%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home132PA	.263	.574	.930	10.3%	7
Away164PA	.203	.453	.752	7.8%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day77PA	.343	.657	1.021	10.2%	6
🐾Night219PA	.190	.455	.766	8.7%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty99PA	.065	.315	.618	1
Runners On136PA	.377	.697	1.050	12
RISP76PA	.469	.833	1.215	8

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs103PA	.351	.681	1.069	8
1 Out110PA	.229	.531	.876	5
2 Outs83PA	.087	.275	.492	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Mon.