Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.2%

+655

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Drohan (0.64 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #2Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.3%

+786

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.4%

95% CI · 15.0–15.8%

+551

Fair odds

1st AB

4.0%

Through AB2

7.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
Lineup+3%
Contact+23%
SP Contact+2%
Statcast-6%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0324 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+23% (×1.23)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-6% (×0.94)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+565

High

+8030

Low

+445

Med

+740

Avg

+1157

+565

Low +445High +8030

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.9

Proj PA

HR / PA

.040

ISO

.185

wOBA

.322

wRC+

106

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.1

Hard%

32.9

FB%

43.2

Pull%

61.0

Soft%

14.6

GB%

38.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

34.0

FB%

38.3

Pull%

66.0

Soft%

17.0

GB%

38.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

31.4

FB%

50.0

Pull%

54.3

Soft%

11.4

GB%

38.2

Home

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

29.7

FB%

41.7

Pull%

59.5

Soft%

18.9

GB%

36.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

35.6

FB%

44.4

Pull%

62.2

Soft%

11.1

GB%

40.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.64 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (45% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.64 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.059↓ vs season .25020 PA · 15d

OPS

.318

ISO

.059

RBI

K-BB

7-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ MIL	4	0	0	0	—
06-16	@ MIL	1	0	1	0	—
06-13	vs DET	4	0	0	2	—
06-10	vs NYY	3	0	1	2	—
06-08	vs NYY	0	0	1	0	—
06-07	@ TEX	1	1	0	0	2.000
06-05	@ TEX	1	0	0	0	—
06-04	@ NYY	3	0	0	3	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball39PA	.133	.292	7.4	47.4	67	30.4
🐾SISinker18PA	.125	.363	7.1	30.8	79	21.4
🐾SLSlider15PA	.200	.205	0.0	30.0	90	34.3
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.292	.332	6.2	62.5	69	23.3	81	32
vs RHP	.071	.211	9.1	27.3	64	25.0	128	17

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.383	0.0	33.3	83	20.0	81	9
vs RHP	.272	.343	12.5	37.5	75	22.2	128	11

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.189	0.0	0.0	100	29.4	81	6
vs RHP	.334	.216	0.0	42.9	86	38.9	128	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Fry.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Confirmed5 of 11 HRs · 45%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 5 of 11 career HRs (45%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Avg EV on HRs

102.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

379

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

34.5°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
28
xwOBA
.292
Whiff%
30.4
HH%
47.4
BRL%
7.4
Pull%
67
SISinker
Use%
22
xwOBA
.363
Whiff%
21.4
HH%
30.8
BRL%
7.1
Pull%
79
SLSlider
Use%
20
xwOBA
.205
Whiff%
34.3
HH%
30.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
90
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.

Shane Drohan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.8	12.0	50.0	44	.252	22.7
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.6	13.9	47.2	58	.344	25.0
SLSlider	19.6	3.0	25.8	70	.218	24.6
FCCutter	14.3	10.3	28.0	66	.352	8.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.4	38.5	54	.344	19.2	21
vs RHB	8.3	50.0	33	.183	23.5	28

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	42.9	79	.302	14.3	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.0	46	.370	33.3	25

SLSlider20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.5	27.3	64	.213	31.4	33
vs RHB	0.0	27.3	82	.230	12.5	16

FCCutter14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	16.7	83	.349	0.0	7
vs RHB	8.7	34.8	61	.353	9.1	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .343). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP44PA	.225	.500	.841	11.1%	2
vs LHP71PA	.069	.259	.597	2.6%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home52PA	.048	.286	.671	3.1%	0
🐾Away63PA	.197	.411	.713	9.3%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day49PA	.195	.463	.851	8.8%	2
Night66PA	.088	.281	.584	4.9%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty38PA	.152	.394	.736	1
Runners On52PA	.091	.250	.538	1
RISP26PA	—	.048	.279	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs33PA	.179	.536	.991	1
1 Out38PA	.187	.406	.748	2
2 Outs44PA	.052	.184	.434	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.