Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

18.3%

+446

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Brandon Sproat (RHP) (1.80 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

14.1%

+610

RBI 1+

37.2%

+169

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

19.9%

95% CI · 19.5–20.4%

+402

Fair odds

1st AB

5.4%

Through AB2

10.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind+3%
vs SP+1%
Lineup+3%
Contact+24%
SP Contact+12%
Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Brandon Sproat (RHP)

·10 mph wind out to OF
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0336 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind+3% (×1.03)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+24% (×1.24)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 7 games

Now

+445

High

+8030

Low

+445

Med

+810

Avg

+1906

+445

Low +445High +8030

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.1

Proj PA

HR / PA

.036

ISO

.171

wOBA

.316

wRC+

100

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

34.5

FB%

36.2

Pull%

65.5

Soft%

13.8

GB%

37.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

34.4

FB%

25.0

Pull%

71.9

Soft%

15.6

GB%

40.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

15.4

Hard%

34.6

FB%

50.0

Pull%

57.7

Soft%

11.5

GB%

34.6

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

26.9

FB%

34.6

Pull%

61.5

Soft%

19.2

GB%

34.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

40.6

FB%

37.5

Pull%

68.8

Soft%

9.4

GB%

40.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Brandon Sproat is leaky — 1.80 HR/9 allowed
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (45% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.80 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.077↓ vs season .25016 PA · 15d

OPS

.404

ISO

.077

RBI

K-BB

7-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ MIL	1	0	1	0	—
06-13	vs DET	4	0	0	2	—
06-10	vs NYY	3	0	1	2	—
06-08	vs NYY	0	0	1	0	—
06-07	@ TEX	1	1	0	0	2.000
06-05	@ TEX	1	0	0	0	—
06-04	@ NYY	3	0	0	3	—
05-31	vs BOS	4	3	1	1	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR10PA	.300	.381	14.3	42.9	86	23.1
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR15PA	.083	.243	11.1	33.3	67	28.6
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.421	0.0	40.0	80	21.1	80	8
vs RHPTONIGHT	.300	.381	14.3	42.9	86	23.1	153	10

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.292	.332	6.2	62.5	69	23.8	80	32
vs RHPTONIGHT	.083	.243	11.1	33.3	67	28.6	153	15

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Fry.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected5 of 11 HRs · 45%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 5 of 11 career HRs (45%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Avg EV on HRs

102.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

379

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

34.5°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Brandon Sproat · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.381
Whiff%
23.1
HH%
42.9
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
86
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCutter
Use%
26
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.243
Whiff%
28.6
HH%
33.3
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
67
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.

Brandon Sproat (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	27.4	5.7	41.2	55	.341	17.4
FCCutter	26.4	4.9	38.5	63	.371	14.7
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	19.5	11.5	57.7	42	.374	22.9
CUCurveball	11.5	27.8	58.8	61	.406	20.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	50.0	46	.368	20.7	36
vs RHB	3.2	32.3	61	.320	15.9	43

FCCutter26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.9	47.1	71	.466	10.5	21
vs RHB	4.2	33.3	58	.314	17.6	31

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	57.1	36	.316	19.6	28
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	50	.446	30.8	24

CUCurveball12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	36.4	36	.283	24.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	57.1	85.7	100	.866	13.3	9

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .343). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP40PA	.250	.556	.931	12.5%	2
vs LHP71PA	.069	.259	.597	2.6%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home52PA	.048	.286	.671	3.1%	0
🐾Away59PA	.211	.442	.764	10.5%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day49PA	.195	.463	.851	8.8%	2
🐾Night62PA	.094	.302	.625	5.6%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty34PA	.172	.448	.830	1
Runners On52PA	.091	.250	.538	1
RISP26PA	—	.048	.279	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs33PA	.179	.536	.991	1
1 Out37PA	.193	.419	.770	2
2 Outs41PA	.057	.200	.468	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Wed.