Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.0%

+1008

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Tarik Skubal (LHP) (0.42 HR/9) · park 124

2+ RBI

9.0%

+1016

RBI 1+

32.5%

+208

Hits 1+

61.1%

-157

Hits 2+

19.0%

+427

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.7%

95% CI · 7.4–8.0%

+1201

Fair odds

1st AB

1.6%

Through AB2

2.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+24%
Temp+5%
vs SP-35%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast-6%
SP Statcast-6%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Tarik Skubal (LHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 124)
·85F game

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0227 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.65) · blended_proj

Park+24% (×1.24)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+0% (×1.00)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-6% (×0.94)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-6% (×0.94)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games

Now

+1005

High

+945

Low

+575

Med

+718

Avg

+745

+1005

Low +575High +945

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.4

Proj PA

188

HR / PA

.023

ISO

.131

wOBA

.296

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

34.2

FB%

36.7

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

14.2

GB%

41.7

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

33.3

FB%

29.6

Pull%

55.6

Soft%

11.1

GB%

51.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

34.4

FB%

38.7

Pull%

40.9

Soft%

15.1

GB%

38.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

34.0

FB%

39.6

Pull%

43.4

Soft%

18.9

GB%

37.7

Away

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

34.3

FB%

34.3

Pull%

44.8

Soft%

10.4

GB%

44.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Progressive Field is a hitter's haven (+24 for LHB)
Tarik Skubal stingy: only 0.42 HR/9
86°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (124)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.42 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.167↓ vs season .23530 PA · 15d

OPS

.334

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

9-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-10	vs NYY	4	0	0	2	—
06-09	vs NYY	1	1	0	0	1.000
06-08	vs NYY	2	0	0	0	—
06-07	@ TEX	4	0	0	2	—
06-06	@ TEX	5	2	1	0	.400
06-05	@ TEX	3	0	0	1	—
06-02	@ NYY	5	1	0	2	.200
05-30	vs BOS	3	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL11PA	—	.115	0.0	37.5	25	15.0
🐾CHChangeup24PA	—	.259	0.0	28.6	57	38.3
🐾SISinkervL14PA	.182	.395	0.0	75.0	63	28.6
🐾SLSlidervL12PA	.333	.337	28.6	42.9	57	44.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.115	0.0	37.5	25	15.0	117	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.308	.419	17.9	42.9	75	21.2	73	45

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.259	0.0	28.6	57	38.3	73	25

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.182	.395	0.0	75.0	63	28.6	117	14
vs RHP	.059	.341	0.0	42.9	57	12.9	73	20

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.333	.337	28.6	42.9	57	44.4	117	12
vs RHP	.067	.174	0.0	55.6	44	39.0	73	16

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

124

vs RHB

vs SHB

Progressive Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Schneemann.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 3 of 3 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.120

Barrel %

5.8

Hard Hit %

37.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.301

xBA

.235

Brl / PA %

3.60

Max EV (mph)

107.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.2

Avg EV on HRs

104.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

3.60

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Tarik Skubal · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.115
Whiff%
15.0
HH%
37.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
25
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 11 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
26
xwOBA
.259
Whiff%
38.3
HH%
28.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
57
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 24 PA this season.
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.395
Whiff%
28.6
HH%
75.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
63
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Tarik Skubal (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	39.0	10.4	36.4	46	.331	20.6
CHChangeup	25.7	3.2	25.0	71	.194	26.8
SISinker	18.7	0.0	56.0	43	.382	18.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.7	0.0	76.9	81	.217	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	33.3	66.7	33	.318	43.8	10
vs RHB	8.9	33.3	47	.333	15.9	57

CHChangeup26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	50.0	83	.154	22.2	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.0	28.0	68	.201	24.6	43

SISinker19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	62.5	38	.408	12.5	18
vs RHB	0.0	41.7	50	.361	17.4	19

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	100	.439	—	4
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	75.0	75	.175	28.0	19

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .425). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CLE)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Progressive Field (325/410/325 ft) · elev 660ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

FCCutter1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP148PA	.111	.326	.610	6.2%	3
🐾vs LHP46PA	.147	.415	.763	6.2%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home88PA	.090	.295	.590	7.1%	2
Away106PA	.143	.388	.690	5.5%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day79PA	.028	.225	.503	4.7%	0
Night115PA	.181	.429	.742	7.0%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty63PA	.102	.305	.559	1
Runners On84PA	.132	.408	.753	2
RISP41PA	.132	.421	.762	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs71PA	.097	.274	.556	1
1 Out54PA	.102	.388	.740	1
2 Outs69PA	.154	.385	.660	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-017PA	.412	.765	1.118	2
1-010PA	.300	.600	.900	0
0-127PA	.260	.556	.852	2
2-02PA	—	—	—	0
0-226PA	—	.115	.231	0
3-03PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-232PA	—	.219	.438	0
2-227PA	.074	.259	.444	0
3-225PA	.150	.200	.440	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.