Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.0%

+670

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (LHP) (0.96 HR/9) · park 110

2+ RBI

11.1%

+798

RBI 1+

34.5%

+190

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

25.0%

95% CI · 24.5–25.5%

+299

Fair odds

1st AB

6.7%

Through AB2

12.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+10%
Temp+5%
vs SP-8%
Contact+19%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Martín Pérez (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0435 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-8% (×0.92) · blended_proj

Park+10% (×1.10)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 3 games

Now

+670

High

+725

Low

+595

Med

+725

Avg

+682

+670

Low +595High +725

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.8

Proj PA

232

HR / PA

.042

ISO

.183

wOBA

.319

wRC+

105

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

40.7

FB%

35.2

Pull%

49.5

Soft%

15.4

GB%

47.3

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

42.9

FB%

33.3

Pull%

28.6

Soft%

23.8

GB%

42.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

16.0

Hard%

40.0

FB%

35.7

Pull%

55.7

Soft%

12.9

GB%

48.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

34.0

FB%

38.3

Pull%

53.2

Soft%

10.6

GB%

46.8

Away

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

47.7

FB%

31.8

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

20.5

GB%

47.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Citi Field mild HR boost (+10)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CH)
91°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (110)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.300↑ vs season .25010 PA · 15d

OPS

.900

ISO

.300

RBI

K-BB

4-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-11	vs STL	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333
06-10	vs STL	4	1	1	2	0	2	1.000
💣 368ft · 101.4 EV · Slider
06-09	vs STL	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333
05-12	vs DET	2	1	0	1	0	0	1.000
05-09	@ ARI	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
05-08	@ ARI	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
05-07	@ COL	3	1	0	0	1	2	.333
05-06	@ COL	4	2	0	1	1	0	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeupvL9PA	.445	.500	28.6	42.9	86	27.3
🐾SISinker34PA	—	.342	8.7	45.5	61	20.0
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.445	.500	28.6	42.9	86	27.3	75	9
vs RHP	.200	.280	0.0	25.0	100	30.0	116	6

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.347	9.1	45.5	59	13.6	116	32

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Alvarez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.0

Avg EV on HRs

107.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

415

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/4

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.500
Whiff%
27.3
HH%
42.9
BRL%
28.6
Pull%
86
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinker
Use%
30
xwOBA
.342
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
45.5
BRL%
8.7
Pull%
61
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Career vs Martín Pérez (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Martín Pérez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.8	8.3	23.6	83	.270	18.3
SISinker	29.5	8.9	49.0	75	.403	11.6
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.5	7.7	45.7	49	.302	30.0
CUCurveball	9.7	0.0	50.0	80	.325	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	28.6	86	.161	21.3	19
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.5	22.6	83	.302	15.3	70

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	36.7	77	.437	6.5	36
vs RHB	7.7	57.7	73	.370	14.0	39

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	25	.128	21.4	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	51.4	51	.329	33.3	51

CUCurveball10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	40.0	80	.412	—	5

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .613). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

FSSplitter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP107PA	.174	.424	.757	13.0%	4
🐾vs LHP31PA	.134	.367	.625	22.7%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home69PA	.193	.435	.739	12.7%	3
Away69PA	.133	.383	.711	18.2%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day56PA	.166	.458	.828	11.9%	2
Night82PA	.162	.378	.658	17.5%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty49PA	.227	.500	.847	2
Runners On61PA	.076	.288	.576	1
RISP29PA	—	.174	.460	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs45PA	.163	.419	.708	2
1 Out48PA	.279	.558	.891	3
2 Outs45PA	.028	.222	.548	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-013PA	.333	.750	1.212	1
1-09PA	.125	.250	.361	0
0-112PA	—	.182	.432	0
2-02PA	—	.500	1.000	0
0-214PA	.153	.615	1.044	0
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-223PA	—	.087	.174	0
2-225PA	.160	.400	.640	1
3-223PA	.222	.500	.935	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.