Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.5%

+547

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Aaron Nola (RHP) (1.67 HR/9) · park 92

Batting #8Projected lineup

2+ RBI

12.5%

+700

RBI 1+

35.7%

+180

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

24.7%

95% CI · 24.2–25.2%

+305

Fair odds

1st AB

7.5%

Through AB2

14.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Temp+5%
vs SP+15%
Contact+12%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Aaron Nola (RHP)

·88F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0442 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+15% (×1.15) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+450

High

+1500

Low

+340

Med

+545

Avg

+658

+450

Low +340High +1500

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.7

Proj PA

164

HR / PA

.047

ISO

.198

wOBA

.322

wRC+

106

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.6

Hard%

36.7

FB%

34.0

Pull%

46.7

Soft%

18.7

GB%

48.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

37.8

FB%

27.0

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

18.9

GB%

54.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

17.1

Hard%

36.3

FB%

36.3

Pull%

50.4

Soft%

18.6

GB%

46.0

Home

HR/FB

23.1

Hard%

31.5

FB%

35.6

Pull%

49.3

Soft%

17.8

GB%

46.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

12.0

Hard%

41.6

FB%

32.5

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

19.5

GB%

49.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.67 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.320↑ vs season .25027 PA · 15d

OPS

.810

ISO

.120

RBI

K-BB

7-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ CIN	5	3	0	1	0	0	.600
06-16	@ CIN	2	1	0	0	2	1	.500
06-15	@ CIN	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-13	vs ATL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-11	vs STL	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333
06-10	vs STL	4	1	1	2	0	2	1.000
💣 368ft · 101.4 EV · Slider
06-09	vs STL	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333
05-12	vs DET	2	1	0	1	0	0	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR27PA	.167	.435	28.6	71.4	57	24.0
🐾SISinkervR34PA	—	.350	8.7	43.5	57	16.7
🐾CHChangeupvR6PA	.200	.280	0.0	25.0	100	30.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.302	0.0	20.0	40	26.3	84	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.167	.435	28.6	71.4	57	24.0	116	27

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.262	0.0	50.0	100	25.0	84	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.350	8.7	43.5	57	16.7	116	34

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.445	.500	28.6	42.9	86	33.3	84	9
vs RHPTONIGHT	.200	.280	0.0	25.0	100	30.0	116	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Alvarez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #8Projected0 of 1 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.0

Avg EV on HRs

107.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

415

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/4

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Aaron Nola · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CUCurveball
Use%
34
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.435
Whiff%
24.0
HH%
71.4
BRL%
28.6
Pull%
57
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.350
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
43.5
BRL%
8.7
Pull%
57

Career vs Aaron Nola (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

2.500

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Aaron Nola (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	34.0	—	26.4	—	.232	21.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.7	18.0	50.0	56	.450	21.3
SISinker	19.9	10.4	43.5	60	.387	14.6
CHChangeup	12.0	7.1	40.0	71	.275	6.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.2	54.1	62	.504	14.9	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	23.1	46.2	39	.330	27.3	22

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.0	50.0	70	.401	11.3	35
vs RHB	14.3	39.3	54	.374	20.6	36

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	65	.292	8.7	28
vs RHB	20.0	60.0	100	.187	0.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .613). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

FSSplitter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 29 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP117PA	.159	.416	.755	13.1%	4
vs LHP38PA	.111	.361	.650	22.2%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home73PA	.182	.409	.697	12.3%	3
🐾Away82PA	.112	.394	.757	18.5%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day65PA	.141	.439	.804	10.2%	2
Night90PA	.150	.375	.675	19.4%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty55PA	.204	.490	.854	2
Runners On69PA	.068	.305	.618	1
RISP35PA	—	.179	.473	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs49PA	.149	.404	.690	2
1 Out53PA	.250	.521	.842	3
2 Outs53PA	.024	.262	.635	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Thu.