Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.4%

+774

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sonny Gray (0.87 HR/9) · park 102

Batting #4Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.3%

+872

RBI 1+

33.7%

+197

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.1%

95% CI · 11.7–12.5%

+726

Fair odds

1st AB

2.9%

Through AB2

5.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+2%
Wind+14%
vs SP-10%
Contact+9%
Statcast+2%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·19 mph wind out to OF
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0256 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+2% (×1.02)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+2% (×1.02)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 6 games

Now

+575

High

+1035

Low

+625

Med

+750

Avg

+793

+575

Low +625High +1035

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.1

Proj PA

HR / PA

.027

ISO

.141

wOBA

.297

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.9

Hard%

38.1

FB%

37.2

Pull%

31.9

Soft%

17.7

GB%

42.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

41.2

FB%

29.4

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

17.6

GB%

47.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.8

Hard%

37.5

FB%

38.5

Pull%

30.2

Soft%

17.7

GB%

41.7

Home

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

34.4

FB%

31.1

Pull%

34.4

Soft%

16.4

GB%

44.3

🐾Away

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

42.3

FB%

44.2

Pull%

28.8

Soft%

19.2

GB%

40.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Sonny Gray stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Hot streak: .743 OPS over last 15 days
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.258↑ vs season .25034 PA · 15d

OPS

.743

ISO

.161

RBI

K-BB

8-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-14	vs NYY	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	vs NYY	2	1	0	0	2	0	1.000
06-12	vs NYY	2	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-10	vs PHI	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs PHI	4	2	0	0	0	1	.500
06-08	vs PHI	2	1	0	1	1	0	1.000
06-07	vs BAL	4	2	1	1	0	0	1.250
💣 423ft · 108.0 EV · Changeup
06-05	vs BAL	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball40PA	.028	.384	6.2	46.9	28	17.3
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾STSweeper10PA	—	.209	0.0	—	80	50.0
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.269	0.0	75.0	0	25.0	-22	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.032	.400	7.1	42.9	32	12.6	151	36

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.195	0.0	0.0	50	62.5	-22	6
vs RHP	no sample

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

102

vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Piñango.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

100.1

Avg EV on HRs

100.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

348

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

19.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sonny Gray · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
21
xwOBA
.384
Whiff%
17.3
HH%
46.9
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
28
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCutter
Use%
21
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
STSweeper
Use%
18
xwOBA
.209
Whiff%
50.0
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
80

Sonny Gray arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.6	6.1	28.9	57	.359	23.8
FCCutter	20.6	5.8	26.1	54	.351	6.3
STSweeper	18.4	8.3	51.5	72	.257	19.8
CUCurveball	18.3	12.5	42.9	67	.389	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	7.0	30.2	58	.368	25.0	55
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	50	.300	16.7	10

FCCutter21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	27.8	56	.384	14.3	22
vs RHB	2.9	23.5	53	.328	0.0	36

STSweeper18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	66.7	73	.235	25.0	33
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	38.1	71	.282	17.8	36

CUCurveball18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.5	42.9	62	.360	14.7	30
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .553). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 27 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP103PA	.168	.505	.893	9.0%	4
vs LHP25PA	.080	.200	.320	6.7%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home67PA	.178	.468	.811	9.8%	2
🐾Away61PA	.121	.414	.742	7.1%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day40PA	.290	.632	1.007	12.5%	3
Night88PA	.086	.354	.672	6.6%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty34PA	.062	.375	.728	0
Runners On62PA	.105	.421	.792	1
RISP35PA	.157	.438	.781	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs47PA	.222	.489	.787	3
1 Out42PA	.075	.350	.660	0
2 Outs39PA	.143	.486	.896	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.