Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.4%

+705

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs J.T. Ginn (RHP) (1.01 HR/9) · park 114

2+ RBI

10.8%

+823

RBI 1+

34.2%

+192

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT

143wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

—wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his strong side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.3%

95% CI · 10.9–11.6%

+787

Fair odds

1st AB

2.9%

Through AB2

5.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
Temp+5%
vs SP-2%
Contact-5%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs J.T. Ginn (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·93F game
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0208 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-5% (×0.95)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 1 HR

Now

+705

High

+990

Low

+465

Med

+750

Avg

+767

🐾+705

Low +465🐾 HR money zoneHigh +990

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+7502026-06-02vs HOUbook line

AwayBat 7thoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.2

Proj PA

103

HR / PA

.022

ISO

.137

wOBA

.305

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

27.8

FB%

52.8

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

11.1

GB%

22.2

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

27.3

FB%

51.5

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

9.1

GB%

21.2

Home

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

31.3

FB%

50.0

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

12.5

GB%

25.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

25.0

FB%

55.0

Pull%

30.0

Soft%

10.0

GB%

20.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
93°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (114)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.192↓ vs season .25029 PA · 15d

OPS

.776

ISO

.308

RBI

K-BB

7-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	vs MIA	2	0	0	0	2	1	—
06-12	vs MIA	4	2	1	1	0	1	1.500
💣 393ft · 106.9 EV · Cutter
06-10	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	vs LAD	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ ATL	2	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-06	@ ATL	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-05	@ ATL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-04	@ HOU	4	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

114

🐾vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rodríguez.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

J.T. Ginn · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Unknown

SISinker
Use%
35
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CHChangeup
Use%
18
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

J.T. Ginn (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	35.0	6.8	41.2	62	.351	29.1
FCCutter	18.6	8.3	38.2	75	.343	15.8
CHChangeup	18.3	5.6	26.5	75	.180	23.1
SLSlider	16.0	5.7	39.4	66	.292	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	9.4	40.6	75	.404	25.6	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.8	45.2	52	.309	31.4	68

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.6	50.0	82	.454	12.5	31
vs RHB	0.0	21.4	64	.143	—	15

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	29.4	77	.190	24.2	51
vs RHB	no sample

SLSlider16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.6	50.0	50	.391	18.5	24
vs RHB	5.9	35.3	82	.202	19.1	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .434). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 23 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP60PA	.192	.447	.854	12.1%	2
vs LHP7PA	—	—	.286	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home34PA	.209	.417	.841	6.2%	1
🐾Away33PA	.143	.393	.757	20.0%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day24PA	.059	.235	.626	—	0
🐾Night43PA	.229	.486	.881	19.2%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty17PA	—	.273	.802	0
Runners On37PA	.125	.313	.591	1
RISP19PA	.058	.176	.387	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs25PA	.294	.647	1.207	1
1 Out20PA	.188	.438	.806	1
2 Outs22PA	.053	.158	.385	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.