Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

18.9%

+430

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Luis Castillo (RHP) (1.18 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

14.4%

+596

RBI 1+

37.4%

+167

Hits 1+

66.5%

-198

Hits 2+

24.4%

+309

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

24.2%

95% CI · 23.7–24.6%

+314

Fair odds

1st AB

7.0%

Through AB2

13.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
Temp+5%
vs SP+5%
Contact+17%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast+16%
SP Statcast+4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Luis Castillo (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0351 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+5% (×1.05) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+17% (×1.17)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+16% (×1.16)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 3 HR

Now

+430

High

+1135

Low

+425

Med

+708

Avg

+724

🐾🐾🐾+430

Low +425🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1135

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 3× priced here.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.1

Proj PA

371

HR / PA

.035

ISO

.181

wOBA

.335

wRC+

112

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.3

Hard%

37.0

FB%

42.2

Pull%

44.8

Soft%

18.2

GB%

35.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

32.1

FB%

41.1

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

19.6

GB%

35.7

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

20.7

Hard%

39.0

FB%

42.6

Pull%

47.1

Soft%

17.6

GB%

36.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

15.4

Hard%

37.0

FB%

42.4

Pull%

43.5

Soft%

20.7

GB%

41.3

Away

HR/FB

19.0

Hard%

37.0

FB%

42.0

Pull%

46.0

Soft%

16.0

GB%

31.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (85% of career HRs)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (111)
High barrels/PA (7.3%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.239↓ vs season .26751 PA · 15d

OPS

.705

ISO

.152

RBI

K-BB

13-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs SEA	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-09	@ SF	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-08	@ SF	4	2	0	2	0	1	.500
06-07	@ ARI	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 367ft · 96.2 EV · Cutter
06-06	@ ARI	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-05	@ ARI	4	2	1	1	2	1	1.250
💣 386ft · 106.0 EV · Slider
06-03	vs MIA	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-02	vs MIA	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR57PA	.325	.422	10.8	40.5	62	23.0
🐾SLSlidervR25PA	.250	.404	14.3	71.4	71	25.5
🐾SISinkervR22PA	.200	.517	22.2	77.8	83	12.1
🐾CHChangeupvR32PA	.193	.336	13.0	34.8	78	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.076	.641	20.0	40.0	20	10.3	109	15
vs RHPTONIGHT	.325	.422	10.8	40.5	62	23.0	167	57

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.300	.262	7.7	53.8	69	39.6	109	20
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.250	.404	14.3	71.4	71	25.5	167	25

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.166	.251	0.0	21.4	64	17.1	109	19
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.200	.517	22.2	77.8	83	12.1	167	22

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.193	.336	13.0	34.8	78	31.1	167	32

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

111

vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Abrams.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 34 of 40 career HRs (85%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.239

Barrel %

10.9

Hard Hit %

42.2

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.362

xBA

.267

Brl / PA %

7.30

Max EV (mph)

110.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.1

Avg EV on HRs

102.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

389

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/9

Avg LA on HRs

29.6°

Brl / PA %

7.30

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Luis Castillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
46
xwOBA
.422
Whiff%
23.0
HH%
40.5
BRL%
10.8
Pull%
62
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.404
Whiff%
25.5
HH%
71.4
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
71
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.517
Whiff%
12.1
HH%
77.8
BRL%
22.2
Pull%
83
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Luis Castillo (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Luis Castillo (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	45.7	14.1	49.3	47	.334	18.5
SLSlider	24.7	7.1	42.1	71	.305	13.1
SISinker	17.0	9.6	50.0	65	.431	12.5
CHChangeup	12.5	10.0	44.0	80	.310	7.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY46% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.3	54.2	48	.379	15.5	90
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.5	46.2	46	.258	21.3	56

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	55.0	75	.347	13.8	31
vs RHB	4.5	27.3	68	.259	13.2	32

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	55.6	56	.542	0.0	12
vs RHB	7.0	53.5	67	.407	13.5	51

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	40.9	77	.324	2.6	23
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	88	.266	18.2	12

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .402). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CH🐾Changeup2

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

STSweeper1

FCCutter1

CUCurveball1

SLSlider1

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP208PA	.269	.560	.954	11.5%	12
vs LHP83PA	.160	.427	.752	6.8%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home144PA	.193	.435	.775	8.5%	6
Away147PA	.278	.603	1.011	11.5%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day132PA	.212	.451	.784	10.1%	6
Night159PA	.256	.577	.986	10.2%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty91PA	.311	.527	.890	6
Runners On121PA	.260	.580	.993	6
RISP78PA	.277	.646	1.082	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs111PA	.101	.384	.735	2
1 Out83PA	.343	.658	1.031	6
2 Outs97PA	.308	.564	.966	6

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-033PA	.219	.750	1.295	1
1-019PA	.263	.526	.789	1
0-126PA	.154	.423	.692	1
2-010PA	—	.444	.844	0
0-243PA	.154	.385	.687	1
3-06PA	3.000	4.000	5.000	1
1-249PA	.042	.146	.268	0
2-237PA	.189	.459	.730	2
3-236PA	.096	.286	.813	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.